Pittsburgh is thankfully back in the win column, going 1-1 in the division the last two games, sitting pretty at 7-4. Far from perfect, but we saw some encouraging changes after firing Matt Canada, including more TE usage (finally) and the middle-of-the-field, in QB Kenny Pickett’s best-game of 2023. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted passes at the line of scrimmage that affect the intended pass location. This week, a throwaway and a batted pass were removed.
Pickett had another interception-less game (seven), without any near-picks as we’ve seen on this encouraging seven-game-streak, and made the history books with the longest INT-less streak in franchise history. This was particularly exciting in a more aggressive attack including four explosive passes in Week 12, compared to none the prior two games in more conservative outings in Canada’s final games.
For more context, Pickett went 24-for-33 against the Bengals. His 72.7 completion rate, 278 pass yards, and four big-time throws were all season-highs. Displayed much better accuracy throwing some absolute dimes with decisiveness, at 8.4-YPA and 97.8-passer-rating, compared to 106-yards, 53.6-completion-rate, 3.8-YPA and 62.5-rating last week. We also saw better communication despite the coaching changes, answering the call with a nice bounce-back following the putrid-showing against the Browns.
Other encouraging sights were dominating time of possession (31:17-22:43), and much better on third downs, going 8-of-14 on passes (57.1 percent). 4-of-6 fails were at third-and-ten or longer, including the throwaway and bat (both free-blitzers). 5-of-8 conversions were third-and-six or less. Three of them came on the long-14-play-drive following S Trenton Thompson’s key interception, cashing in on the defense’s lone turnover with a red-zone rushing-TD from Najee Harris. The offense worked more in concert together, and hopefully, these improvements are a building block for a post-season push.
The biggest issue was still a goose egg in passing TDs though, with none in the last three games. WR Diontae Johnson had one (debatably) but dropped the ball out-of-bounds. Points will hopefully follow if Pittsburgh’s offense can keep the train from Week 12 moving.
Let’s examine the 31 charted passes further, with the number of throws at each pass distance this week:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 32.3 percent. Most-common pass distance, which is true for most games. First-example was a third-and-12 fail on the short opening drive, hitting TE Connor Heyward wide-open (flat-route). Though Cincinnati was waiting in off-coverage at the chains, he ran out of bounds instead of fighting for YAC (10-yard-gain). The following drive, we saw purposeful motion with RB Jaylen Warren, getting him a running start to the flat for a three-yard gain and third-and-one conversion.
In the first drive of the second quarter, Pickett hit TE Darnell Washington on the first-down stop-route at four air yards, with nice churning YAC on the ten-yard chain-mover. The following drive had one of the miscommunications, where Johnson ran a slant/sit, and Pickett threw it outside, unfortunately, a costly mistake on third-and-four.
Two open stop-routes on the two-minute drive before halftime, the latter to TE Pat Freiermuth who had a stellar game. Here he churned for great YAC and 11-yard chain-mover, but the drive unfortunately stalled (T Broderick Jones holding penalty).
Following another penalty in the fourth quarter (WR Miles Boykin holding), Freiermuth got good separation on an out-route, setting up a more manageable third down. The final pass of the game was also to Freiermuth, a conservative stop-route on third-and-11, but the “fail” gets an asterisk with money-kicker Chris Boswell extending the lead to 16-7 with 2:55 left.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 29.0 percent. First was a first-and-ten stop-route to WR George Pickens early for a successful play. In the second quarter, nice first-down throw/out-route from Freiermuth for nine yards, another example of early-down success that helped move the ball more consistently.
Another nine-yard air-yard target to Freiermuth came just before halftime, a second-consecutive stop-route from the slot, providing plus-YAC again and getting the ball to Bengals-territory. Following Jones’ penalty, G James Daniels allowed a QB-hit on second-and-17, with the pass well short of Freiermuth.
On the long touchdown drive, WR Calvin Austin III was part of trips bunch alignment on third-and-five, benefiting/getting good separation on the out-route, gaining just enough to convert. The following pass was a third-and-four, a decisive laser to Freiermuth on a stop-route, gaining nine. Then, Pickens got good separation on a sideline comeback after Pickett eluded early, but made a good throw on the move for ten yards. Following a sack (T Dan Moore), Pickett made a great throw on third-and-six despite tight coverage on Freiermuth’s out-route, with the huge eight-yard-conversion putting Pittsburgh in the red zone.
Methodically moved down the field on this scoring drive, and this pass distance was critical in that success. The final example was a “wow play” with Johnson making a great catch on the open crosser over the middle despite the low pass, adding some YAC on the 12-yard conversion. So, 4-of-8 third-down-passing-conversions in this range.
T-third. Behind-the-Line: 16.1-percent. The second play of the game was painful, with the Johnson screen going backward (-3 YAC). A second-quarter predetermined check-down to Warren was also unsuccessful, both plays five-yard losses.
Success followed on a Warren screen at -6 air yards, taking it 15 yards (21-YAC), starting the TD drive off with a bang. Play-action boot left to start the fourth quarter, dumping to Heyward for one yard on first down. On the final drive, same action but successful, targeting WR Allen Robinson II a yard behind the line and 11-yard chain-moving first-down.
T-third. Explosive: 16.1-percent. Exciting uptick in quantity (typically least-common-distance). The successes were fantastic, on familiar outside-the-number go-balls. The first was to Johnson early second-quarter at 32 air yards, and a fourth-quarter one to Pickens at 30 air yards. Both were excellent throws/routes/catches, including YAC (seven, 13), and were third-down-conversions, wow.
Three incompletions though, the first being the Johnson near-TD. Another end zone target to Freiermuth was unfortunate, feet tangling with the DB tripping him up, and a fourth-quarter go-ball thrown out of reach to Pickens despite the diving effort.
#5. 15-20 air yards: 9.7 percent. Biggest refreshing change, targeting the intermediate-middle after sparsely doing so this season. Came out swinging, decisively on the first play to Freiermuth, a seam route over the middle at 17 air yards and an explosive 24-yard gain. Following a second-drive sack (Harris), another over-the-middle target to Freiermuth (post-route), making the between-the-hash catch at 16 air yards, another explosive gain (29). The other was unfortunate, a third-and-six fourth-quarter red zone fail on a Johnson comeback route, broken up at the goal line.
#6. 10-15 air-yards: 3.2-percent. Just one-charted-pass here, hit on the blitz, affecting the off-target-incompletion over the middle to Pickens, big miss with huge YAC opportunity.
Every gain of ten yards or more included YAC, and props deserved to the playmakers in Pickett’s performance.
Here are the dots of completions and incompletions for Week 12:
Finally, green dots past 15 yards over the middle! Also encouraging was going 5/5 on passes near/between-the-hashes, after not even attempting one last week, and overall in Canada’s-tenure. Two completions at 30-plus air yards, with the 32-yarder to Johnson the second-longest of 2023. So encouraging.
The overall tendency of ten-yards-or-less was still prominent (22/31 charted passes, 71 percent), and were highly efficient (20/22, 91 percent), emphasizing Pickett’s improved accuracy in the game.
Pickett favored the left side, with 21 of his throws outside the left hash (67.7 percent), where all his incompletions came. 6-of-9 on the left outside-the-numbers, and 8-of-12 between the hash to the left numbers, for 66.7-percent in each. Inside the left-hash to the right sideline, Pickett was perfect (10/10), including many of the most refreshing changes we saw in Week 12.
Now for the heat maps, with all the charted passes for the game, then completions only:
While the changes were encouraging, we see room for growth as well. Some great results, but connecting more past 10 yards is highlighted on the charts (4-of-9, 44.4 percent). Been waiting a long time to see the added color in the middle though, along with Pickett’s deep accuracy (2-of-3 incompletions weren’t on him) hopefully continuing moving forward.
Now let’s look at all 320 charted throws this season, with frequencies by distance and previous averages:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 33.1-percent. Previously 33.2-percent.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 24.4-percent. Previously 23.9-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: Season 18.8-percent. Previously 19.0-percent.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 12.8-percent. Previously 13.8-percent.
#5. 15-20 air-yards: Season 11.6-percent. Previously 11.8-percent.
#6. Explosive: Season 11.3-percent. Previously 10.7-percent.
No change in the ranks again, but explosives encouragingly rose, and are nearing 15-20 air yards (dropped a couple of ticks). All other pass distances dipped this week, except for 5-10 air yards, rising 0.5 percent.
Here are dots for all Pickett’s charted throws of 2023, along with his completion rates by distance:
Behind-the-line: Season 49/56 (87.5-percent). Previously 44/51 (86.3-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 72/95 (75.8-percent). Previously 63/85 (74.1-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 49/72 (68.1-percent). Previously 41/63 (65.1-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 19/38 (50-percent). Previously 19/37 (51.4-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 15/34 (44.1-percent). Previously 13/31 (41.9-percent).
Explosive: Season 11/32 (34.4-percent). Previously 9/27 (33.3-percent).
Pickett improved his accuracy at every pass distance except 10-15 air yards, on just one attempt, the missed opportunity to Pickens over-the-middle (hit-on-the-throw). Impressive.
To close, here are heat maps for Pickett’s charted passes through Week 12, then his completions-only:
More color over the intermediate middle and a new long of 30 air yards to the left on Pickens’ 43-yard double-explosive go-ball highlight the completions-only chart that has been stale for much of 2023. Pickett’s great game is hopefully signs of more to come and hopefully sees even more downfield success considering some unlucky breaks in Week 12.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
