Pittsburgh is now 6-3 after stacking another win. Offensively, huge props to the encouragingly strong rushing performance (205 yards), easing the load on the pass game. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Couple notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted passes at the line-of-scrimmage that effect the intended pass location. This week, a throwaway was removed.
QB Kenny Pickett went 14-for-23 on the stat sheet for a low 61-percent and only 126 yards (just 5.5 YPA), was sacked once, and had a 75.6 rating. No turnovers was a key plus, but he had four pass breakups/near picks, and an off-target behind-the-line pass that was luckily incomplete instead of a lateral/turnover that would have been a fumble recovery touchdown (whew).
Contributed just two third down conversions: a third-and-one tush push and third-and-three to the flat. WR Diontae Johnson drew a pass-interference on third-and-three, a key play on the opening TD-drive. Then, Pickett went a painful 0-for-8 (including the throwaway) on third-down passes in the final three quarters.
Four were third-and-nine or longer. The other four were third-and-three or less, all incomplete with two forced/near picks, and the others thrown out of bounds. Also, three fourth quarter incompletions when he is normally Mr. Clutch. Crazy bad, especially considering the rushing success, and strong o-line performance overall.
Let’s examine the 22 charted passes further, with number of throws at each pass distance this week:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 40.9-percent. Dominating the pass distances once again (50-percent last game). The first pass right out of the gate was to WR George Pickens, making a concerted effort to get him the ball after his quiet week nine outing, a chain-moving stop route for five yards. Pickett got the ball to receivers in the flat early and often again. The following play was to TE Connor Heyward at one air-yard, getting great YAC for 13 yards and hurdling for the first down.
Following the opening-drive rushing TD, it was Darnell Washington’s turn in the flat, an under-center play-action at the line-of-scrimmage, and getting six yards with a stiff-arm/churn as well. The final pass of the first-quarter was also a flat-route, but a wrinkle with RB Jaylen Warren aligning in the slot on third-and-three, forcing a missed tackle (T-first on catches in 2023 at RB) and getting just enough for the only passing conversion of the whole game.
Then, pain. First pass of the second-quarter was on third-and-14, a dump-off against drop-coverage, with good YAC effort by Heyward, but stopped short for 12 yards and settling for a FG. The following example was also a money down (third-and-nine), with Pickett pressured (C Mason Cole) and low on the pass on the run, three-and-out.
On third-and-17 in the third-quarter, it was another deep-zone, dumped off to Heyward for just seven yards. Next drive on third-and-three, Pickett forced/pre-determined the flat to Warren, with the defender under-cutting it on a near-pick, instead settling for the FG and one-point lead.
#2. Behind the Line: 27.3-percent. Warren got an opening-drive red-zone screen, with ten in YAC to the ten-yard-line prior to two Harris runs including the TD. Before half-time, WR Calvin Austin III got the screen off playaction for a gain of three yards. One of Pickett’s worst throws was behind Warren on a quick-screen, the close lateral/turnover thankfully called incomplete on the three-and-out second-quarter drive.
In the third-quarter, Pickett threw high on a dump-off to Harris on second-and-17 (following a Cole holding-penalty), hit late following the pass and continually not getting roughing-the-passer calls on another failed drive.
A fourth-quarter example was a playaction, fake-reverse, then screen where Harris who ran a bit wide, making it tough for blockers (particularly Cole) to get in front, no gain. The final pass of the game was a quick decision to Harris open in the flat on second-and-ten, with eight YAC but tackled on the hurdle out-of-bounds short of the chains instead of churning. Unfortunately led to the third-and-two throwaway/last-drive FG settle.
#3. 5-10 air-yards: 18.2-percent. Late second-quarter, nice throw and comeback route to Johnson on first-down, with YAC to boot on the 12-yard chain-mover. Same drive, same look on third-and-two, with good coverage from the defender, but Pickett locked on the first-read and forced anyway on the pass-breakup/fail.
T-fourth. 15-20 air-yards: 13.6-percent. Enjoyed a late second-quarter play, a nice deep out-route by Johnson creating ample separation for a 17-yard gain on first down. The others were on the explosive cusp, hence the tie-in with these pass distances.
T-fourth. Explosive: 13.6-percent. Three explosive air-yard attempts, all in the second-half. The first was the great third-quarter back-shoulder Pickett-to-Pickens connection, solid throw and WR manipulation of the DB at 20 air-yards, and adding eight in YAC as well.
A fourth-quarter go-ball/back-shoulder to Johnson was contested, but a catchable ball you expect a top WR to make. The following play was the final explosive-attempt on third-and-ten, but the pass is high and way out of Pickens reach out-of-bounds (T Dan Moore pressure/declined hold).
#6. 10-15 air-yards: 4.5-percent. Least common of the week (one attempt). Second-and-one in the first-quarter, under-center play-action rollout, but Pickett forced it to Johnson who was double-covered (had Washington open in the flat). Thankfully, the near pick was over-turned as the DB was unable to get the second foot down in-bounds, instead another lucky break resulted in the second TD-drive.
Here are the dots of completions and incompletions for Week Ten:
Short pass dominant as expected, but even less downfield, particularly in the intermediate range. Only four passes past ten yards (2-for-four) and just one explosive completion (1-for-3). Zero attempts at five-air-yards or more between the numbers, and none between the hashes.
5-for-6 on-between the numbers, on just 27.2-percent of Pickett’s throws, for an 83.3 completion-rate, and the longest completion at only four air yards. 10-for-16 outside-the-numbers, accounting for 72.7 of passes and a 62.5 completion rate. Four incompletions to each side, all of them on/outside the numbers.
Yes, the run game success played a thankful factor. An outright ugly passing chart that’s even more predictable than usual though, in Pickett’s lowest yardage output in a full game in 2023. Painful.
Now for the heat maps, with all the charted passes for the game, then completions only (brace yourselves):
Whoof. Neither chart is pretty, including the vacant intermediate/deep middle of the field, with only one completion at each pass distance. Painful re-occurring theme that hopefully improves, considering the necessity to keep up with top offenses to be competitive.
In total, 86 of Pickett’s 126 passing yards came via YAC though (a whopping 68.3-percent), an encouraging development this year that hopefully continues, considering the passing locations of Pickett and the Steelers offense not likely to change drastically.
Now let’s look at all 267 charted throws this season, with frequencies by distance and previous averages:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: Season 34.1-percent. Previously 33.5-percent.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: Season 24.0-percent. Previously 24.5-percent.
#3. Behind the line: Season 18.7-percent. Previously 18-percent.
#4. 10-15 air-yards: Season 13.5-percent. Previously 14.3-percent.
#5. 15-20 air-yards: Season 12.0-percent. Previously 11.8-percent.
#6. Explosive: Season 10.9-percent. Previously 10.6-percent.
No changes in the ranks once again. The biggest riser this week was behind the line passes, 0-5 air-yards a close second, and miniscule increase past 15 yards, which says a lot. Biggest faller was 10-15 air-yards, with 5-10 air yards dipping as well.
Here are dots for all charted throws of 2023, along with completion rates by distance for Pickett:
Behind the line: Season 39/46 (84.8-percent). Previously 35/40 (87.5-percent).
0-5 air-yards: Season 59/80 (73.6-percent). Previously 52/71 (73.2-percent).
5-10 air-yards: Season 37/58 (63.8-percent). Previously 35/54 (64.8-percent).
10-15 air-yards: Season 16/33 (48.5-percent). Previously 16/32 (50-percent).
15-20 air-yards: Season 13/29 (44.8-percent). Previously 11/26 (42.3-percent).
Explosive: Season 9/25 (36-percent). Previously 8/22 (36.4-percent).
The completion rates fell at most pass distances, with the biggest drop coming behind the line, typically a high-percentage throw but two incompletions that were inaccurate and turnover-worthy, ouch. Two risers, the biggest being 15-20 air-yards, encouragingly going 2-for-3, along with 0-5 air yards.
To close, here are heat maps for Pickett’s charted passes through Week Ten, then his completions only:
A bit more color on the first chart, with the 35 air-yard incompletion to the left (Johnson catchable go-ball), but the completions only view is practically unchanged this week. A prolific passing attack was not necessary or expected of course. One thing’s for sure, we need to see much better results from Pickett and the passing offense regardless of circumstance moving forward.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
