As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in Week Four’s game against the Houston Texans.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. Their Pass Rush Ruins The Texans’ Game Plan
Similar to the team’s Week Two win over the Cleveland Browns, the real advantage Pittsburgh has here is with its pass rush. Specifically, EDGE rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith against the Texans’ overmatched tackles. Starting left tackle Austin Deculus has never played an NFL snap before and is the team’s third option after losing Laremy Tunsil and Josh Jones. Advantage Highsmith. On the other side, Watt has the edge on spot starter George Fant.
Overall, the Texans are down four of five starting linemen they had entering the year. There’s Kendrick Green at left guard and rookie Jarrett Patterson at center. The Steelers have the advantage across the board and need to take advantage, making this game look more like C.J. Stroud’s Week One and Two numbers (11 total sacks) than Week Three (zero sacks).
2. Tank Dell’s Speed Is Contained
Through three weeks, the Steelers have faced talented receivers. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, Davante Adams. But they haven’t seen someone with Texans WR Tank Dell’s speed. Dude is a burner. Their version of Calvin Austin III, Houston has a far more creative pass-game scheme to get guys like him open. He had a big performance last Sunday, posting a 5/145/1 line against the Jags, including a 68-yard touchdown to seal the win. Pittsburgh doesn’t have the league’s fastest corners and their speed will be tested.
3. Pittsburgh Continues To Get A Push In The Run Game
A similar story to last week against Las Vegas, the Texans’ interior defensive line is pretty soft. And they’re even lighter players than what the Raiders had. So far, their run defense hasn’t been great, and Pittsburgh should be able to attack between the tackles. The run game showed improvement against the Raiders but can be a lot better.
THE STEELERS LOSE WIN IF…
1. Pressley Harvin III’s Absence Is Notable
Harvin’s stellar punting was a significant reason why the Steelers beat the Cleveland Browns and the Raiders. Coming off a career day in Week Three, it’s a major disappointment a hamstring injury is keeping him out of action this week. Hopefully it won’t linger but these injuries tend to.
Ex-Steeler Brad Wing will replace Harvin today, his first NFL game since 2017. He did enough to beat out veteran punters during his tryout and get signed by the team, but he’s still sort of a wild card. Remember, he’s also the team’s holder for K Chris Boswell. Hopefully that doesn’t become an issue for the field goal operation.
2. C.J. Stroud Outduels Kenny Pickett
It’s only three games but Stroud looks like the real deal. Despite zero running game and a M*A*S*H unit of an offensive line, things that typically crush rookie quarterbacks, Stroud has played exceptionally well. He’s accurate, decisive, has a high football IQ, and just enough mobility to be a threat.
Quarterbacks face opposing defenses, not each other, but if Stroud outduels Pickett, the Texans have a real shot in this one. Don’t sleep on their offense.
3. Steelers Can’t Handle Texans’ Stunts
Houston’s pass rush hasn’t been ideal this season, but the Texans do love to stunt their rookie DE Will Anderson. He’ll primarily align as a left defensive end, meaning he’ll face OT Chukwuma Okorafor, but Anderson will loop inside plenty. That’s especially notable because the Steelers will start a new right guard in Nate Herbig, replacing the injured James Daniels. Herbig and Okorafor haven’t spent much time working together, aside from this week of practice, and they’re going to have to identify, communicate, and pass these off well. Or else Anderson is going to get interior pressure.
Prediction
Texans: 23
Steelers: 17
Season Prediction Record
1-2
