As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in Week Seven’s game against the Los Angeles Rams.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. The Run Game Gets Past The First Level
Los Angeles often uses a five-down front to try and stop the run. These 5-2 looks have become increasingly common in the NFL this year and Pittsburgh has struggled against it, limited against these fronts by the San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, and Las Vegas Raiders. To the point where even Mike Tomlin made a press conference comment sounding frustrated about the run game’s lack of answers.
The upside for the offense is if they can break through the first level is the defense only has two off-ball linebackers at the second level. Pittsburgh needs to block up the Rams’ d-line and if Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren can find a lane, they’ll have some serious running room to bust off gains of 10-plus yardage.
2. Minkah Fitzpatrick Splashes
Lots of talk this week about Minkah Fitzpatrick’s statistical quiet start to the season. No interceptions or turnovers created through five games. It’s something no one on the team seems worried about and turnovers can be a bit fluky and seemingly come in bunches. But the last time the Steelers played (and beat) the Rams, Fitzpatrick’s big plays were a catalyst to victory. In their 2019 17-12 win, Fitzpatrick had two pass deflections, an interception, and recovered a fumble for a touchdown, a huge play right before halftime.
Fitzpatrick generating a turnover isn’t required for the Steelers to pull off an upset. But it sure would help.
3. Diontae Johnson Is Boost Pass Game Needs
Though losing TE Pat Freiermuth for at least the next four games is a surprising and bitter blow, the passing game is still getting back WR Diontae Johnson, officially activated off IR Saturday morning. The team’s best route runner, he can hopefully create quick wins in the Steelers’ offense and is someone who can win matchups without scheme helping to get him open. It’ll also roll fewer coverages WR George Pickens’ way and give him more one-on-one opportunities that he dominates.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Secondary Can’t Defend Motion, Cooper Kupp
The Rams’ pass game is where they excel most and they figure to lean on it even more now that their top two running backs have been ruled out. Los Angeles effectively utilizes motion to scheme guys like Kupp free and he aligns all over the field to get put in the best matchups possible, knowing how defenses try to gameplan him away. They also utilize similar motion to the Dolphins’ “cheat motion” of short and fast motion right before the snap. That can be used to out-leverage defenders but also stress communication. Defenses quickly trying to adjust and respond to distributing a bunch set, for example. Pittsburgh’s secondary must play better than it has all year.
2. Rams’ Scheme Overwhelms Offense
Similar to the first point I made in the “win” list for the Steelers’ run game. Los Angeles often plays a 5-2 front with a two-high shell, even against multiple tight ends and more run-heavy looks. Their goal is to stop the run with the five-down look and prevent the deep ball with their two-deep shell, a best-of-both worlds scheme. Pittsburgh’s offense could have trouble having success against both aspects, making for a long day.
3. Quarterback Difference Is Notable
Matthew Stafford versus Kenny Pickett. No, they don’t directly compete against each other but the better quarterback of the day usually wins. Some of Stafford’s numbers are down, his completion percentage and touchdown rate, but this guy can still spin the football. At his best, he’s about as good as any thrower in football. Pickett will have to match that play with some high-level throws himself against a Rams’ secondary that is beatable.
Prediction
Rams: 23
Steelers: 17
Season Prediction Record
3-2
