Coming out of the bye week, Pittsburgh is now 4-2 with the win over the Rams. For the second season, I am charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with batted passes at the line of scrimmage that affect the intended pass location. This week, two throwaways were removed, both on third down and one an intentional grounding.
QB Kenny Pickett had one of his best games of the year, starting with his season-best 68-percent completion rate (17/25), and another strong fourth-quarter. Great accuracy improvement from 56.3 percent last game. This came on 230 pass yards, a 97.1 rating, no touchdowns or interceptions, and two sacks that came in the first quarter.
He enjoyed better protection as the game wore on, aiding in the quality and lowest number of attempts in a full game to date. Though improved, we still saw some pocket presence issues, including the throwaways. On the intentional grounding, he had TE Connor Heyward open over the middle and instead bailed left into a hit, and was antsy as RT Chukwuma Okorafor recovered on the other.
The positive trend from the run game was huge, with Pickett providing Pittsburgh’s first rushing touchdown of 2023 (one-yard sneak), and two more from the red zone in the fourth quarter. We saw some new wrinkles and with WR Diontae Johnson back, better flow from Pittsburgh’s offense in the second half that will hopefully continue more consistently throughout games.
Let’s examine the 23 charted passes, with the number of throws at each pass distance this week:
T-first. Behind the line: 26.1 percent. More of this with mixed success this week. The first play of the game was a screen to RB Najee Harris with space, seeking out the DB to the sideline with physicality out of the gate for eight yards (13 YAC). Harris had another in the red zone, bobbling the catch on a flat-route from the slot, fantastically staying in bounds and hurdling for the near score and great six YAC (sneak TD followed).
Also from the scoring position, we saw a rare under-center play-action that was used on multiple occasions, a boot left with Heyward open in the flat for 12 YAC. Nice design, and it also set up Harris’ go-ahead rushing touchdown. Normally a factor at this pass distance is RB Jaylen Warren, but not the case in this game. One catch for -1 on a dump-off (Heyward open over the middle), dropped his other target on a wide-out-screen, likely to fail anyway on third and 17, and allowed a sack.
T-first. 5-10 air yards: 26.1 percent. Several key plays here. Pickett provided a great throw early in the game despite a hit (G James Daniels), finding WR George Pickens who created separation on the slant at eight air yards, and adding nine YAC on the 17-yard gain. In the third quarter, Pickett went over the middle to Heyward on a post-route, a bad decision with a LB in position and nearly picked.
The longest 39-yard gain came on a huge third and eight conversion. Trips left cleared out the pivot route from Johnson, adding an explosive 31 YAC to the red zone, a huge play on another scoring drive. Love this design. Pickens also had a slant with good YAC, but a face-palm taunting penalty afterward. WR Allen Robinson’s lone target was the final pass of the game, a tough catch on a slant tackled just short on third and eight. While it failed, it set up the debatable fourth and one sneak conversion from Pickett that sealed the victory.
#3. 10-15 air yards: 17.4 percent. Another under-center play-action, with a great throw, comeback route, and contested catch from Johnson on the sideline for 14 yards. Pickett stepped up and made a good throw to Heyward, open over the middle, but well short of the chains on second and 21. Under-center play-action again, encouragingly throwing over the middle on it, but Pickens easing up on the in-breaker seemingly anticipating the hit on the drop. Also, nice throw on an out to Johnson for 11 yards despite Harris being pushed back in his face.
T-fourth. 0-5 air yards: 13 percent. First was a blitz on third and seven, with Pickett taking a huge hit from the free rusher, and off target. Three and out to open the game. A Johnson pivot route earlier in the game was negated by Pickens’ blindside block, so glad they went back to it.
T-fourth. 15-20 air yards: 13 percent. Back to the under-center play-action comeback, thrown a bit behind Johnson and broken up. Another great throw despite a QB hit (G Isaac Seumalo), a back-shoulder to Pickens, who manipulated and got the DB turned around for the easy snag and explosive 20 yards. They hooked up on it once again in the fourth quarter, for another explosive 21-yard gain. That connection is special.
#6. Explosive: 8.6 percent. Least common with only two attempts. First was a go-ball to Pickens that was incomplete (just out of bounds) on a third and nine first-quarter fail. The other was a huge and refreshing play on the final drive on third and three, with Pickens running the slot seam, selling a shorter route against the zone to get open and add YAC for 31 yards.
Here are the dots of completions and incompletions for week seven:
We saw far fewer back-shoulders that dominated last week’s charts. Pickett went a strong 9/12 (75 percent) on/inside the numbers. 2/3 past ten yards including his lone explosive air-yard completion, which is a slight bump in volume after going 0/1 on such passes last game. The incompletion was not on Pickett (Pickens drop), which is also encouraging for the former. 1/3 on or between the hashes, which had more depth than prior games but was less successful overall.
Outside the numbers, Pickett was 8/11 (72.7-percent). Two of those incompletions were at 15 or more air yards to the right, while the other was the Warren drop. It’s very encouraging to see more over the middle and intermediate passing, especially with a lack of explosive throws this game and in general.
Now for the heat maps, with all the charted passes for the game, then completions only:
Not as extreme of a drop-off in the charts from previous weeks, especially over the middle of the field. This is something I’ve been clamoring for and it’s great to see this coming out of the bye. Here’s to hoping it continues. We also see the lack of success on the deep right, the longest completion to the left at 21 air yards, and the most common area between the left hash to left numbers at four to ten yards.
Now let’s look at all 177 charted throws this season, with frequencies by distance and previous averages:
#1. 0-5 air yards: Season 31.6 percent. Previously 34.4 percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: Season 24.3 percent. Previously 24.0 percent.
T-third. Behind the line: Season 18.1 percent. Previously 16.9 percent.
T-third. 10-15 air yards: Season 16.9 percent. Previously 16.9 percent.
#5. 15-20 air yards: Season 13.6 percent. Previously 13.6 percent.
#6. Explosive: Season 9.6 percent. Previously 9.7 percent.
No changes in the ranks this week. The biggest change was a downtick in the most common pass distance of 0-5 air yard passes, due to an increase of behind-the-line and 5-10 air yards in week seven. The remaining distances literally or virtually stayed the same as their previous averages.
Here are dots for all Pickett’s 2023 charted throws, along with his completion rates by distance:
Behind the line: Season 27/31 (87.1 percent). Previously 23/25 (92 percent).
0-5 air yards: Season 40/54 (74.1 percent). Previously 38/51 (74.5 percent).
5-10 air yards: Season 27/42 (64.3 percent). Previously 22/36 (61.1 percent).
10-15 air yards: Season 16/30 (53.3 percent). Previously 13/26 (50 percent).
15-20 air yards: Season 9/23 (39.1 percent). Previously 7/20 (35 percent).
Explosive: Season 7/17 (41.2 percent). Previously 6/15 (40 percent).
Behind-the-line passing saw the biggest downtick, along with a slight dip in 0-5 air yard completion rates. Past five yards, Pickett improved at every distance and had an increase of three or more percentage points sans explosives. This emphasizes it being one of his better games to date, even without a passing TD.
To close, here are heat maps for all of Pickett’s charted passes in 2023, then completions only:
No eye-popping changes on the visual at a glance with a lack of explosive passing, but seeing an increase in depth over the middle on the completions chart is something I am so happy to be talking about. Plays like the seam route to Pickens over the middle were so refreshing to see, along with post/slants, in-breakers, and the pivot route got the ball into play-makers’ hands and was successful. Seeing some encouragingly added wrinkles after the bye week, and getting in the red zone (and scoring) was great to see, and will hopefully happen more regularly moving forward.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
