Kenny Pickett can’t be blamed for anything. Compare him, the first quarterback of the 2022 draft class to San Francisco 49ers’ QB Brock Purdy, the last passer drafted that year, and the offenses they play in might as well be two completely different worlds.
Though it’s difficult to perfectly quantify what a “predictable” offense looks like, there are some stats who can help. NFL data cruncher Arjun Menon posted this chart showing “perfectly covered” each offense and opposing defense has faced this season. Essentially when every player in coverage has a non-negative grade. This chart factored out screen plays that can’t be really “covered” by all coverage men.
The data showed the Steelers’ offense has the highest percentage of “perfectly covered” dropbacks of roughly 47 percent of the time. Only two other teams, the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys, sat above 40 percent. Here’s the full graph below.
On the other end of the spectrum are the San Francisco 49ers, the offense who faces the least amount of perfect coverage. Their rate comes in just over 20 percent of the time, more than half the mark the Steelers face. It’s a credit to head coach Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and inventive ability to get his players open. In essence, they make their offense easy to process and play through whereas Pickett and the Steelers have it as hard as anyone. That doesn’t completely absolve Pickett but it’s certainly useful context to explain part of his struggles.
Defensively, the Steelers’ offense has perfect coverage around one-third of the time, a number that looks about average, perhaps a bit below. Tops in the league are the Cleveland Browns, whose defense has been stifling under new DC Jim Schwartz. The AFC North also represents the worst such team in the league, the Cincinnati Bengals at roughly 25 percent. Their defense is certainly missing safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, who became free agents and signed elsewhere this offseason.
Pittsburgh’s offense has a whole host of problems. The list of things they do well is short. Honestly, picking up any of their strengths is difficult. Their running backs have good ball security, George Pickens is a great sideline receiver, and that’s…about it. Having quick and easy wins is a smart way to create some rhythm and the ability to sustain drives. The Steelers rank 31st in time per possession per drive at two minutes and 14 seconds. Last year, they ended the year second in the league at over three minutes.
