Seemingly every NFL analyst in the country had Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens pegged for a breakout campaign in 2023. While he’s not having a bad season despite the lack of touchdowns—he is on pace for over 1000 receiving yards—however, we are not seeing the anticipated growth in his second season.
Or rather, we are, and it has helped him in important ways, because right now it’s the only thing keeping him successful. Thus far through the first four games of the 2023 season, his featured attribute has been non-existent when it matters.
Contested catches. Making those eye-popping, high-degree-of-difficulty plays. They just haven’t been there. Not the opportunities, mind you. They have been. He hasn’t been making the catches when the targets come his way.
In fact, one could make the argument that he is the worst receiver in football at the moment in contested catch situations. According to Pro Football Focus, he is the only receiver in the NFL with more than five contested targets without a single contested catch.
Not one. Zero contested catches. Sure, he had a couple of them in the preseason, and he got the better of rookie CB Joey Porter Jr. during training camp. But those don’t count. They can sit on his phone and it won’t do anybody any good.
Zero contested catches. He is the only player with at least contested targets without at least two contested catches. He is only one of four players with four or more contested targets who has yet to make a contested catch.
Now, with all that being said, all hope is not lost. As I wrote last year, the sustainability of contested catch success is very precarious. A high catch rate in one season does not predict one in the next. Even for players with an established resume in this area, like turnovers and sacks, there are too many variables involved to be confident one can be highly productive in such a volatile area.
And we know that he has the talent to make these plays. We’ve seen it enough already. He had the third-most contested catches in the league last year with 19, and the highest contested catch rate among players with at least 25 contested targets. He’s going to start making some of these catches.
More importantly, he has grown significantly as an all-around receiver since last year, so he hasn’t had to rely upon making contested catches in order to be productive. 36.5 percent of his receptions as a rookie were on contested targets, and exactly one-third of his targets.
This year, so far, while none of his 16 receptions have come on contested targets, only 26.7 percent of his targets have been contested. That is decidedly a trend in the right direction. We need to see him make more of them when they do come his way, but this is a number we want to come down. He should be open when thrown to as often as possible. Run after the catch is much more valuable.
