Over the last few seasons, the Pittsburgh Steelers have played a significant amount of man coverage. Just last season, Pittsburgh played man coverage nearly 41% of the time. That number has increased slightly in 2023 as the Steelers still remain a man-heavy scheme.
According to ESPN’s Stats & Info, the Steelers are in man coverage 49% of the time, 11th-most in the NFL through Week Seven.
They might need to run more of it in Week Eight against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars to try and get the better of third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence, who is continuing his ascent into star status after leading the Jaguars to the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs last season, has struggled against man coverage this season, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
“The Steelers are playing man coverage on 49% of drop backs, the 11th-highest rate in the NFL. Pittsburgh might want to lean into that even more as quarterback Trevor Lawrence has the highest QBR in the NFL against zone coverage but ranks 24th against man coverage. That’s the second-largest drop in QBR from zone to man this season,” ESPN writes.
Typically, putting your cornerbacks in man coverage more often can have a negative consequence, especially against a loaded offense like the Jaguars. That hasn’t been the case for the defenses that Lawrence has played against this season.
Based on the QBR numbers from ESPN Stats & Info, Lawrence goes from the best against zone coverage in the NFL to bottom of the barrel against man coverage. That’s in large part due to limited spacing in man coverage compared to zone, greater difficulty in throws, and defenders closer to the receiver, usually.
The advanced numbers back that up, too. Lawrence is one of the least aggressive quarterbacks in football, according to Next Gen Stats. Lawrence’s 11.7% aggressiveness metric puts him near guys like Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow as guys who don’t exactly like to throw into tight windows.
According to Next Gen Stats, aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within one yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion.
Those man versus zone metrics also check out in the amount of separation that the Jaguars’ receivers create. Jacksonville’s Calvin Ridley averages just 2.4 yards of separation per route on the season, according to Next Gen Stats, which has him near the bottom of the league in a similar spot as Pittsburgh’s George Pickens. That said, wide receiver Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram are two of the better separators in football at 3.4 and 3.7 yards per route, respectively.
Over the last few seasons the Steelers have been a man-heavy team, though that could change some on Sunday at Acrisure Stadium with how banged up the secondary seemingly is. Veteran cornerback Levi Wallace missed practice Wednesday with a foot injury and was limited Thursday and Friday. Rookie cornerback Joey Porter Jr. was limited Thursday and Friday with a calf injury and had a wrap on it as a precaution.
On Friday, names like practice squad cornerback Luq Barcoo and rookie Darius Rush reportedly saw some first-team reps in practice defensively, which is a bit concerning considering neither has seen the field in the regular season.
It looks like both Barcoo and Rush could see playing time Sunday as Wallace and Porter are both officially questionable for the Week Eight matchup against the Jaguars. Depth cornerback James Pierre is also questionable after missing practice Friday with an ankle injury.
But based on the numbers, the Steelers should play more man coverage and change up looks on Lawrence as much as possible in an effort to throw him off his game and force him into mistakes.
