FOOTBALL IS BACK! Following a stellar 2023 offseason for the Pittsburgh Steelers, week one presents as tough a matchup as they come in the San Francisco 49ers, who are coming off a deep playoff run. Let’s dive right in.
EDGE. Reigning defensive player of the year (DPOY) and 2022 sack leader Nick Bosa just signed a record-breaking new contract with the 49ers, after holding out much of the offseason. His presence will certainly be felt, but his snap count coming off of the missed time are a question mark.
Here’s some context to his impact last season:
Bosa earned his bag with his league-leading 18.5 sacks and a whopping 48 QB hits (second place was 36). He is no doubt a force to be reckoned with, which will be a huge challenge for Pittsburgh’s OL, particularly left tackle Dan Moore Jr. (more on him in a bit).
The visual highlights two Steelers among the 2022 sack leaders, starting with Alex Highsmith. His 14.5 sacks and 20 quarterback hits ranked sixth in the NFL, in the absence of T.J. Watt for seven games. The 2021 DPOY led the NFL with 22.5 sacks (tied official season record) and 39 QB hits. Then there’s the new additions to Pittsburgh: Markus Golden and rookie Nick Herbig, who had a stellar preseason. The Steelers edge rusher room is stacked, and hopefully they begin feasting right away this weekend.
DL: Steeler Cameron Heyward made the list, with 10.5 sacks (T-17th) and 23 QB hits that tied for an even more impressive 11th, one of only five DL to make the chart. Another was former Steeler Javon Hargrave, who had 11 sacks (T-14th) and 16 QB hits (T-17th) with the Eagles in 2022. He was added to the 49ers strong defense this season, and will no doubt be a challenge for Pittsburgh’s interior OL.
Speaking of the position, here are OL 2022 regular season grades from PFF:
49ers LT Trent Williams had the most respectable grades last season, with a 92.9 RBLK grade, 87.6 pass block grade, and has a 90+ grade on offense the last three seasons with SF. This will certainly be a great matchup with Highsmith right out of the gate, and can’t wait to see the battle.
Steelers LG Isaac Seumalo was the only other player comfortably above the mean in the matchup, a great offseason addition from the Eagles where he had a 79.1 PBLK and 69.5 RBLK. He showed out well in his first action with Pittsburgh this preseason: 84.0 PBLK/75.7 RBLK, and is hopefully one of the key cogs in slowing Hargrave and company on the interior.
The second-best singular grade in 2022 came from 49ers RT Colton McKivitz (85.9 PBLK), but had a low 57.2 RBLK grade. He also played the least snaps as a backup (68), and steps into the starting role this season. Watt will matchup here primarily, leaving me optimistic he will have a big game disrupting the potent 49ers offense.
The returning OL for Pittsburgh largely landed below average, with RG James Daniels’ 73.2 PBLK grade the exception. The 2023 starters looked solid in the preseason, largely grading better than their 2022 marks, encouragingly.
These men of course are crucial to the game, including RB success. Pittsburgh faces arguably one of the best in Christian McCaffrey, an extremely tough test to open the season.
Let’s look at how impactful he was in 2022:
McCaffrey had the third most scrimmage yards in the NFL in 2022. Four RBs were in the top five, and the point on the visual highlights how much of their yardage came on the ground. This highlights McCaffrey’s uniqueness among the group, with 1,139 rushing yards (eighth), and a substantial 741 receiving yards which was most among RBs. He also tied for fourth in rushing and receiving TDs with 13.
For Steelers context, Najee Harris had 1,263 scrimmage yards (22nd), 1,034 rushing yards (15th), 229 receiving yards (25th among RBs), and 10 rushing/receiving touchdowns (T-16th). Not bad marks in totality, but his 272 rush attempts were fifth most, leading to 3.8 YPA that tied for the lowest at RB (minimum of 200 snaps). Harris (and the entire Steelers offense) ended the 2022 season positive, along with the Seumalo addition have many of us at Steelers Depot optimistic for a strong running game this year. Tough test right away against this defense though (check the end of the article).
Jaylen Warren was impressive in 2022 with 593 scrimmage yards (379 rushing, 214 receiving), and is coming off an electric preseason. He’s likely earned more opportunities in 2023 which could bode well for Harris.
QB. Kenny Pickett and Brock Purdy are both heading into their second season. Here is a look at their QB ratings from their 2022 rookie year and 2023 preseasons:
Pickett jumps out right away with a huge improvement from year one to the 2023 preseason, when he earned a perfect 158.3 QBR. His 76.7 mark in 2022 ranked third worst among QBs with at least 200 dropbacks, largely due to the poor first half of 2022. With his improvements, the young offense a year wiser, along with added talent, here’s to hoping his 2023 number lands in the 100 range.
The visual highlights Purdy was able to accomplish this his rookie year (107.3). This came on 188 dropbacks and five starts to end the regular season. He also got starting experience in the 49ers three postseason games, but suffered an elbow injury early in the conference championship loss. A bit of a dip this preseason (96.7), but some key players such as McCaffrey didn’t play.
Purdy executes a well-designed 49ers offense. While it took longer, the execution from Pittsburgh’s offense this preseason has me salivating on the potential of what this group can be in 2023.
WR: Here are yards per reception (YPR) and yards after catch per reception (YAC):
Very telling visual, first a strength of 49ers WR1 Deebo Samuel. He was far and away the best in the NFL with 8.9 in YAC. As our own Josh Carney highlighted in his recent Terrible Take, Pittsburgh will need to be sound in the tackling department, namely against Samuel, McCaffrey, and tight end George Kittle (more on him in a bit).
Samuel played in 13 games in 2022, providing more opportunity for Brandon Aiyuk. He was the only player above the mean in both data points in 2022, with 13.0 YPR (T-31st) and 4.7 YAC (T-20th) on a team leading 112 targets (23rd), 1,015 yards (21st), and eight touchdowns (T-eighth). Tough challenges for the Steelers rebuilt secondary.
What jumps out for Pittsburgh are the painful YAC memories in 2022. We encouragingly saw improvement this preseason, but need Pickett and the receiving corps execute in games that count starting on Sunday. I am optimistic with Diontae Johnson’s separation ability, more varied routes from George Pickens (deep ball role in 2022), and Calvin Austin III’s explosive ability. Allen Robinson II’s result matches his likely prominent role as reliable successful play/chain mover.
TE:
Kittle and Pat Freiermuth each had strong seasons, ranking fifth and sixth in yards respectively. The visual emphasizes Kittle’s utilization/skills in both areas, with 12.8 YPR (fourth), 6.5 YAC (sixth), on 80 targets (tenth). Freiermuth had more volume with 96 targets (sixth), was above average with 11.6 YPR (T-12th), and the biggest difference a 4.6 YAC number (T-16th) out of 32 qualifiers. Another key is the end zone, where Kittle led the 49ers with 11 receiving touchdowns (second among TEs), while Freiermuth only had two. That will surely be higher in 2023. Excited to see how Connor Heyward and Darnell Washington look as well.
Defense:
Both teams were in the top ten last season in the data points. SF is strong at every position, ranking first in PA and second in RYA, while Pittsburgh ranked ninth and tenth. This is a tough matchup for the identity Pittsburgh has built on offense, and can’t wait to see the battle in the run game and of course the scoreboard.
Also notable is both teams tied for the league-lead in interceptions in 2022. S Minkah Fitzpatrick tied for first with six interceptions, while 49ers safety Tashaun Gipson had five. Hopefully the 2023 Steelers with new several new faces are productive once again in the turnover department. The linebacker corps will be a big factor, and excited to see Pittsburgh’s three-man rotation in regular season action. For SF, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are fantastic, each with 125+ tackles for the 49ers last season, impressively ranking 17th and 20th in the NFL.
Health Advantage: Pittsburgh. About as clean of a report as you can ask for, with DL Larry Ogunjobi questionable (foot) the only player listed. Here’s to hoping he plays. Questionable for the 49ers are CB Charvarius Ward (heel) and Kittle (groin), which could be huge in the matchup.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
