As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys to the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in today’s regular-season opener against the San Francisco 49ers.
My prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL WIN IF…
1. Their Plan Against Bosa Is Better Than The 49ers’ Against Watt
Both offenses know who to game plan around. For the Steelers, it’s DE Nick Bosa. For the 49ers, it’s T.J. Watt. They’re having the same conversations. Thinking about ways to chip, slide, disrupt, and frustrate the other club’s stud pass rusher, who routinely takes over games.
Who has the better plan? Pittsburgh is benefitting from having Watt in camp and with the team all summer while Bosa just signed his contract and joined San Francisco late in the week. Still, Bosa could wind up playing two-thirds of the snaps and still have a great game. And the 49ers benefit by being more creative with Bosa than the Steelers are with Watt, more willing to move him around the front.
Both teams will do their best to not let the other take the game over. I doubt both will do an equally good job of it. Someone will make a play. Hopefully it’s Watt.
2. They Use Good Tackling Leverage
Meaning, the Steelers play inside/out and use the sideline as help. They recognize where their defensive help is, spilling or boxing the run depending on the call. As Pittsburgh’s talked about all week, tackling will be critical in this one. Of course, it always is, no team comes in with the plan not to tackle well, but against a YAC-happy team like San Francisco, it’s even more important. Taking on Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey is a 60-minute task.
So Pittsburgh has to be smart. They can’t overpursue, they have to use sideline help when they have it, they have to be fundamentally sound. They also have to rally to the football and play true team defense instead of hoping or relying on the other guy to make the stop. Because the 49ers are going to break some tackles. Limiting YAC in those moments is the key.
3. Offense Attacks The 49ers’ Corners
If both teams have something close to a weakness, the cornerback groups aren’t the best. There are solid players, for the 49ers Charvarius Ward is above average, but it’s going to be easier to throw on this defense than it will be to run on it. Kenny Pickett loves taking his vertical sideline shots against single-high and attacking some of those corners, especially the non-Ward names. Seeing some chunk plays would sure be nice.
THE STEELERS WILL LOSE IF…
1. Kenny Pickett Loses Out To The 49ers’ Veteran Safety
The one defensive name we’re not talking about is 49ers FS Tashaun Gipson. A savvy veteran who quietly led the team with five picks last season, he’s played a ton of ball, including against the Steelers the couple years he was with Cleveland. That didn’t come against Pickett but any time you’re pitting a playmaking centerfielder against a (still) young quarterback, there’s a danger there.
Pickett and the offense have looked impressive but you don’t want to let your guard down and lose track of a guy like Gipson. He’ll make you pay.
2. Pittsburgh’s Run Game Can’t Gain Traction
A fairly obvious point but the Steelers’ offseason has been building up the ground game. They’ll be immediately tested against a San Francisco defense that was the league’s best against the run a year ago and added Javon Hargrave in the offseason.
It applies to many fronts, but this will be one heck of a litmus test. If Pittsburgh can run on this group, it could be the catalyst to a really good year. If they can’t, it may not mean their run offense is doomed, but it’ll be hard to win this one.
3. They’ve Even In The Turnover Battle
We usually frame turnover battle as being plus or minus. Win the turnover battle, win the game. Lose it, lose the game. Pretty simple. But in this game, being even probably isn’t good enough to secure victory. As Dave Bryan pointed out, the 49ers were undefeated last season when they won or were even in the turnover battle (13-0). In 2022, they led the league in turnover differential at plus 13 and they only had 17 giveaways, exactly one per game.
In fairness, Pittsburgh did an exceedingly good job taking care of the football after the bye. But being 0-0 or 1-1 in that department, even, doesn’t typically end up with good results for the team playing San Francisco.
Prediction
Steelers: 23
49ers: 20
2023 Prediction Record
0-0
