When it comes to NFL.com’s analytics expert Cynthia Frelund, you’re going to like some of what she has to say about the Pittsburgh Steelers. The other part? Not so much.
Starting with the bad before the good, she unveiled her 2023 AFC record predictions Monday. She has the Steelers finishing with exactly nine wins, putting them at 9-8 for the season, the same mark they ended with in 2022. In a tough AFC and AFC North, that’s not enough for them to make the postseason in her model.
Previewing the season, here’s what she wrote:
“If Kenny Pickett is going to take the step forward many of us are anticipating, the O-line will need to do a better job of supporting the offense. The Steelers made moves this offseason to address the front five.”
It’s a similar comment to what ESPN made earlier today, pointing to Pittsburgh’s offensive line as its biggest weakness and concern. Still, it’s a unit the team has upgraded over the offseason, adding OG Isaac Seumalo to start, OT Broderick Jones as an eventual starter, and OG Nate Herbig as a backup, one who may also be the team’s Plan B at center.
The Steelers’ o-line has been a legitimate weakness for at least the last two seasons and it doesn’t seem to be their Achilles heel this time around. But as they go, so does the rest of the offense, and Pittsburgh wants to be a run-oriented team that doesn’t want to put too much on Kenny Pickett’s shoulders. The line must play well for this offense to score more points.
Per Frelund’s projections, Pittsburgh’s is last in the AFC North behind the Cincinnati Bengals (10.9 wins), the Baltimore Ravens (10.0 wins), and the Cleveland Browns (9.31 wins). She puts the Steelers’ ceiling at 10.5 wins and a floor of 7.9. If the latter comes true, and assuming there are no ties, it’ll be the first losing season of Mike Tomlin’s head coaching career.
Win projections can skew conservative but the Steelers winning the same number of games as last year, with the same failed playoff bid, despite having a better roster would be a clear disappointment. Notable teams above them include the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins.
One man who will try to get Pittsburgh back into the postseason is T.J. Watt. An obvious reason for the team’s struggles last year, his injury caused the defense to go into a shell, Frelund did have positive things to say about him.
“By the way, I tracked T.J. Watt in person during the Bills-Steelers preseason game. His first three steps off the line of scrimmage were faster than they were two seasons ago.”
She doesn’t offer any more specifics than that of how much faster Watt was off the ball but it’s encouraging news. Limited by a partially torn pectoral and several other nagging injuries, Watt finished last season with just 5.5 sacks. Healthy this season, he’s looking to anchor the Steelers’ pass rush and return them to a potent front seven. With Alex Highsmith, Cam Heyward, EDGE depth of Markus Golden and Nick Herbig along with Larry Ogunjobi and rookie Keeanu Benton, Pittsburgh has plenty of guys up front capable of getting to the quarterback. They’ll need that pass rush to come up large this season, starting Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.
Per Frelund’s projections, the top dog in the AFC this year goes to the Kansas City Chiefs, projected to win 11.3 games. On the other end of the spectrum are a pair of AFC South clubs, the Houston Texans (5.9 wins) edging out the Indianapolis Colts (5.3 wins).
