Let’s set the scene. It’s fourth and three from the opponent’s 37-yard line. Your offense has been driving down the field and has two minutes before halftime. Do you go for it? Do you kick a field goal. Do you punt it away and play the field-position battle?
These are the decisions NFL coaches need to make in real time in NFL stadiums. We have seen a trend over the last several years of NFL coaches becoming more aggressive in going for it on fourth down. According to the 33rd Team, coaches are going for it on fourth and five or shorter around 35 percent of the time in the last few years, compared to 21 percent as recently as 2017.
The 33rd Team recently came out with its NFL head coach fourth-down decision rankings, which included the 29 coaches returning from last season as well as the three new rookie head coaches that were hired this offseason with the sample size being the last two seasons. Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin came in 28th on the list, having a win probability added (WPA +/-) of -1.3% and a correct call percentage of 51 based on the data provided by Sports Info Solutions.
It’s notable that the only other experienced head coach in the league behind Tomlin in the rankings is New Orleans Saints’ Dennis Allen with DeMeco Ryans, Shane Steichen, and Jonathan Gannon all ranked behind them due to no sample size. Because of this, Tomlin could be looked at as the second-worst head coach in the league at making fourth-down decisions based on the 33rd Team’s study.
Tomlin has been known for being more of a conservative coach on fourth down compared to other coaches in the league. There have been moments where Tomlin has “lived in his fears,” contrary to one of his well-known Tomlinisms, looking to punt or kick a field goal when in range rather than go for it on fourth down. Matthew Marczi of Steelers Depot noted after the 2022 season that the Steelers were the fourth-most cautious team in the league when deciding to go for it on fourth down at roughly 10 percent.
Still, all of that can’t be tied to Tomlin as the offense hasn’t given much confidence at getting the job done the last two seasons. Alex Kozora of Steelers Depot conducted a film room back in 2021, detailing how the Steelers lacked creativity on offense to dial up good fourth-down plays to move the chains. If anything, that points to OC Matt Canada calling the play and the quarterback effectively executing the play.
While the stats aren’t great for Tomlin from the 33rd Team’s study, Pittsburgh has proven to be effective when it does go for it on fourth and short based on last season. Marczi also noted in his piece that of the 15 plays on which the Steelers did attempt to move the chains on fourth down in 2022, they averaged 3.9 yards to go on such plays, converting 73.3 percent of the time. That ranked third in the league in that metric.
Given that this team has drastically improved the offense this offseason by beefing up the offensive line and adding more weapons to the receiving corps, we should see that conversion rate improve should Tomlin decide to go for it. Pittsburgh has built an offense that should excel in short-yardage situations, having a big, physical runner in Najee Harris as well as an offensive line to create a push up front. These improvements should give Tomlin more confidence to go for it on fourth down this season, hopefully leading to longer drives and Pittsburgh finishing more in the end zone in 2023.
