This week, the Steelers go back on the road to face their next challenge as they take on the 1-2 Houston Texans and their rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud. Stroud is coming off his first NFL win in an upset of the Jacksonville Jaguars and the young gun looks every bit the part of a first-round pick and potential franchise quarterback. Through three games, the Ohio State product has thrown for 906 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s good for anyone, let alone a first-year player with three games under his belt.
The Steelers are coming off back-to-back wins against the Browns and Raiders after a humbling defeat in Week One against San Francisco. Their defense is making big plays when it counts, which has helped balance out an offense that has been slower to find its groove. Prior to the start of the season, this game looked like one that the Steelers should win and win decisively. The Texans appeared to be a franchise in transition, starting a rookie quarterback, coming off a terrible season last year. When trying to guess the Steelers’ record coming into this year, I’m sure most people put a “W” beside this one. And recent history would be on the Steelers’ side.
Going back years to 2013, the Steelers have faced 14 different rookie quarterbacks over 15 total games. Their record in those games? An impressive 13-2. Here’s the list:
2013 — W 19-16: Geno Smith (Jets)
2013 — W 23-10: E.J. Manuel (Bills)
2014 — W 17-9: Blake Bortles (Jaguars)
2014 — W 27-24: Zach Mettenberger (Titans)
2016 — L 34-3: Carson Wentz (Eagles)
2016 — L 35-30: Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
2016 — W 24-9: Cody Kessler (Browns)
2017 — W 21-18: Deshone Kizer (Browns)
2017 — W 28-24: Deshone Kizer (Browns)
2018 — W 33-18: Baker Mayfield (Browns)
2019 — W 16-10: Ryan Finley (Bengals)
2019 — W 23-17: Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
2020 — W 36-10: Joe Burrow (Bengals)
2020 — W 27-3: Jake Luton (Jaguars)
2021 — W 29-27: Justin Fields (Bears)
That’s a pretty encouraging record against rookie quarterbacks. However, the Steelers did have the two blemishes against Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott so what went wrong in those games? A breakdown of the stats between the Steelers’ 13 wins and two losses is very telling.
In the two losses, the rookies completed an average of 22 passes for 310 yards compared to only 17 completions for an average of 207 yards in the Steelers’ 13 wins. That’s a whopping difference of five completions and over 100 yards per game less in their wins versus their losses. Big difference. But these next two factors really tell the story.
In the two games they lost, the Steelers had zero interceptions. Not one. In their 13 wins against rookies, they averaged almost an interception and a half per game (1.4). The defense had at least one interception in all but two of their wins. They had three against Kyler Murray and four against Jake Luton in recent years. Creating turnovers will be a major focal point Sunday against Stroud and the Texans.
However, the most telling stat to me was an encouraging one. In the Steelers’ two losses to Prescott and Wentz, the defense registered two total sacks. Both came against Prescott. They didn’t sack Wentz at all. However, in their 13 wins, the Steelers’ defense averaged almost three-and-a-half sacks per game (3.4). The only win where they didn’t sack the quarterback was against Zach Mettenberger and the Titans. In all their other wins against rookie quarterbacks, they had multiple sacks. And poor Deshone Kizer got the worst of it with 13 sacks in just two games. It’s no secret that creating pressure and getting the rookie rattled will be a top priority for Teryl Austin’s defense. Cue T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.
As for Stroud, through three games he has not thrown an interception. That’s really impressive for a rookie. However, the sack numbers through his first three games are confirmation of what we saw in the Steelers’ stats breakdown. In Stroud’s two losses, he was sacked a whopping 11 times. The Ravens got him five times, the Colts six times. Guess how many times he was sacked in the win against Jacksonville. You got it, zero. He was kept clean in their lone win this season. That makes it pretty clear to me. Get the rookie on the ground and your chances of winning go way up.
The recipe for success against rookie quarterbacks is clear. Take the ball away and put him on the ground. It has worked for the Steelers over the years, and it’s also worked for them this season in their two wins, ones that came against veteran quarterbacks. If they can manage to stay opportunistic on defense and exercise their strengths, they have a good chance of adding another win to their already impressive resume against rookie quarterbacks.
