The Pittsburgh Steelers open up their season tomorrow afternoon against the San Francisco 49ers and expectations surrounding the Black and Gold are sky high. After a great preseason the Steelers went from a sleeper team to a team many are projecting to make the playoffs. But before the team gets to the playoffs, they have to play Week One, and I have some thoughts on how the first game of the season will go.
1. The Steelers Are Going To Open The Game With An Aerial Attack
All offseason the talk has been about how the Steelers are going to be a running football team, and they are, but to start the season they’re gong to air it out. In preseason, QB Kenny Pickett was electric, posting a near perfect stat line of 13/15 for 199 yards and two touchdowns. He showed off a pretty deep ball, the ability to throw people open, and chemistry with his receivers. Pickett is ready to make a second year leap. Both Pickett and the team want to show that preseason wasn’t a fluke and what is a better way than taking it to the best defense league early on? Offensive coordinator Matt Canada is going to want to get Pickett going quickly and taking some deep shots early on may lighten the box later for the running game. The 49ers had the league’s best run defense last year, so the Steelers plan to get the rushing game going should be to threaten San Francisco with the pass. If Pickett can connect on a deep ball or two early on, it could help Pittsburgh have successful balanced attack all game.
2. Najee Harris Is Going To Pick Up Where He Left Off Last Season
As referenced earlier, the 49ers have an elite run defense, and they added former Steeler Javon Hargrave this offseason. Running against San Francisco is a tall task, but RB Najee Harris will be able to get it done. Towards the end of last season, Pittsburgh’s rushing attack became elite as they averaged 146 yards per game in their final nine matchups. The Steelers did this thanks to the improvement of their offensive line and a healthy Harris. In Week 17 last year the Steelers took on the Baltimore Ravens and their third ranked run defense. Harris gashed them for 111 yards on 22 carries for an average of five yards per carry proving the Steelers running attack can take on anyone. Yes, the 49ers were the best run defense last year, but Pittsbugh’s offensive line’s strength is their run blocking and the unit has improved with the addition of G Issac Seumalo.
If Pittsburgh opens the game with a successful passing attack, it could lead to lighter boxes for Harris to run through. If that happens he will feast as he his hungry to prove that the end of last year was not a fluke and he is ready to become one of the best running backs in the NFL. The Steelers rushing attack against the 49ers run defense is going to be a strength on strength battle, but with Harris grinding away all game Pittsburgh, and Harris, will be victorious in this battle.
3. Pittsburgh’s Secondary May Struggle
San Francisco’s head coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in football. He has made countless quarterbacks look like world beaters, and last year turned seventh round pick QB Brock Purdy into one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. His offense is predicated by motions to get defenses out of position, play action, and a passing game that gets their shifty receivers open in the middle of the field. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh their defensive backfield has gone through a bunch of change this season, and the two outside starting cornerbacks are Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace. While both are good cornerbacks, at Peterson’s age he isn’t as quick as he used to be and Wallace isn’t an athletic freak. 49ers wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are deadly in space and could be hard covers in man coverage for the Steelers two veteran corners.
Additionally, given the turnover in the defensive backfield, communication could be an issue. It almost always is early in the season, but now add only two starters in the entire secondary are returning and some starters (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Damontae Kazee/Keeanu Neal) missed chunks of training camp so communication will likely be harder. Now throw in all the window dressing Shanahan loves in his offense, and it is going to make life very difficult for the Steelers defensive backfield.
4. The Defense Will Contain Christian McCaffrey
San Francisco made a splash last year when they traded for RB Christian McCaffrey. One of the most electrifying running backs in the league when healthy, he is going to come into Acrisure Stadium and be stoned by a strong Steelers defensive line and improved inside linebacker group. After a porous run defense in 2021, the Steelers finished 2022 with a top 10 run defense and after retaining their starting defensive lineman the unit should be strong once again. The big improvement though is their inside linebacker corps. Pittsburgh overhauled the unit in the offseason, bringing in new names like Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts, and Kwon Alexander. All three looked great in training camp and in preseason. Expect that continue as Roberts and Alexander are downhill thumpers who know how to fill gaps and make tackles.
McCaffrey is a great back and will likely break a run or two through the 60 minutes, but overall Pittsburgh will keep him in check. The Steelers aren’t expected to miss anyone although DT Larry Ogunjobi is questionable for the game. Should Ogunjobi miss the game things may change for the run defense as he played a big part in having the unit return to the top 10 last season. Assuming he plays though, Pittsburgh should be in a good place to contain McCaffrey.
5. Special Teams Will Decide The Game
Both Pittsburgh and San Francisco are good teams and this is going to be a tight one. In Week One, anything can happen and both teams are so similar. Both start a second year quarterback, have strong running games, and have great defenses. This matchup is basically strength v strength and it will likely come down to special teams, and I don’t just mean kickers. Field position will play a big part in this game, punters will need to pin the opponents deep and if a returner can flip the field it could be a game changer. Steelers WR/PR Calvin Austin III showed big play ability in the punt return game in preseason breaking multiple big returns. If he can break one tomorrow it could go a long way to help a young Steelers offense put points up against a staunch defense.
Obviously kickers are important, and like Week One last season, it could come down to a a game winning kick. Can K Chris Boswell return to form, or will he continue to struggle? 49ers K Jake Moody had a quad injury earlier this week, and although he is cleared to play, how will he look? We have seen Boswell struggle when he has been injured in the past, there is no way Moody is 100-percent entering the game.
This game should be close, it could come down to a last second field goal, and field position will play a big part. Special teams is the unsung third part of football, and although often overlooked, it wins and loses games.
Week One is only a day away and expectations are sky high for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a tough test ahead of them but they certainly have the ability to beat the 49ers, but we’ll have to wait one more day to find out if they do.
