We’re officially in Week One of the 2023 NFL season. Just days away from the regular-season opener between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, an exciting if sorta oddball matchup to kick things off. ESPN is hitting the ground running with one last review of all 32 teams. Their strengths, their weaknesses, and overall outlook on the season.
For the Pittsburgh Steelers, their biggest strength is an obvious one. Few teams have the pass rush chops as the Steelers’ front seven, as ESPN writes.
“The Steelers have former Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt anchoring one side, and they signed Alex Highsmith to an extension in the offseason following a career-best 14.5-sack season. And behind Watt and Highsmith, the Steelers have the best depth they’ve had in recent years.”
A healthy Watt makes everyone around him better as was clear by his prolonged absence last season, partially tearing his pectoral in the team’s zany Week One win over Cincinnati. With his return, Pittsburgh should again be a 50-plus sack unit, a five-year streak that was broken last season. Watt is capable of leading the league in sacks, he’s already done it twice in six seasons, while Highsmith broke out last year with a 14.5 sack campaign. Earlier this year, Pittsburgh paid him for it.
But as ESPN points out, the biggest improvement here is depth. Markus Golden is a smart-rushing veteran with a long resume of success. Nick Herbig was one of the biggest stars of camp with a combination of burst, bend, and even some power for a player undersized coming out of Wisconsin. No one can replace Watt 1:1 but the Steelers are far better protected against a short-term injury than they were a season ago.
For the Steelers’ biggest weakness, the article went back to a familiar group. The offensive line.
“It’s hard to fully gauge an offensive line before the start of the regular season, and the starting unit has performed well in small in-game sample sizes…the biggest test will come Week 1 against a 49ers defense that added former Steeler [Javon] Hargrave to a front that already has reigning DPOY Nick Bosa“
The offensive line was boosted this year in starters and depth. Left guard Isaac Seumalo is quietly the team’s best addition while depth is night and day better compared to a year ago, the team signing OG Nate Herbig and drafting OT Broderick Jones in the first round. There are still some questions about the strength of the tackles and center depth behind Mason Cole, but the Steelers don’t seem to have a glaring weakness and the offensive line is much stronger than it’s been in at least the last three seasons. With all its new and moving pieces, secondary might be the biggest concern of this team.
Analytics writer Seth Walder closed things out by offering a bold prediction for the Steelers’ season.
“Warren will finish the season with more touches than Najee Harris. Harris recorded minus-116 rushing yards over expectation last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats (Warren was plus-8), and Warren was tied for second among running backs in receiver tracking metrics’ overall score. In other words, Warren is the better runner and pass-catcher.”
Advanced analytics have been far kinder to Warren than Harris, including in our recent article on their run-success rates. Warren has a much smaller sample size that could create more statistical noise, but Walder is hardly the first analyst to proclaim Warren bypassing Harris by midseason. But Harris figures to be the guy to begin the year and a lot would have to happen for Harris to become a true and obvious backup.
Some other quick-hitters from ESPN’s statistical models. They give Pittsburgh just an 11 percent chance of winning the AFC North and a 34 percent chance of advancing to the postseason. They project the Steelers to win 8.5 games. Across the board, they’re the lowest numbers in the AFC North.
