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Chris Simms: Steelers Must Throw Downfield, Outside The Numbers To Beat 49ers

The secondary of the San Francisco 49ers is a great one, one that tied for the NFL lead in interceptions last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In addition to 20 interceptions, San Francisco allowed just 6.4 yards per attempt in 2022 (tied for eighth best in the league), gave up just 20 touchdowns through the air (third best in the NFL) and allowed completions to go for first downs just 31.7 percent of the time (seventh best). It will be a stiff test opening up the season in Week One at Acrisure Stadium for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers’ offense.

Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms sees a clear way for Pickett and the Steelers to beat the 49ers on Sunday.

“You’ve got to be willing to throw the ball down the field and outside of the numbers a little bit,” Simms said on the Chris Simms Unbuttoned show on NBC Sports with Mike Florio. “We saw Patrick Mahomes do it last year when he played the 49ers, because that’s about the only spot on the field that they’re going to give you. They take away the medium range throws, the middle of the field a lot.

“Pickett can throw outside the numbers, and they have the type of receivers to win those type of matchups on the outside.”

Pickett certainly can throw outside the numbers, which he showed quite a bit last season.

As a rookie in 2022, Pickett was dominant at throwing outside of the numbers. According to Pro Football Focus’ QB Annual, which breaks down every quarterback in the NFL in a number of metrics, Pickett was the sixth-best quarterback last season when throwing outside of the numbers.

According to the QB Annual, Pickett recorded an 81.8 passing grade on throws outside the numbers, which was sixth best in the league. Additionally, Pickett generated an impressive 12 big-time throws to just three turnover-worthy plays as a rookie throwing outside of the numbers.

In addition to the passing grade and big-time throws outside of the numbers, Pickett was exceptional throwing hitches and out routes in 2022, according to the QB Annual. Pickett had his highest passer rating throwing the hitch and the out route as a rookie. Targeting hitch routes 19 percent of the time, per the QB Annual, Pickett’s passer rating was 89.5. On out routes, which he targeted 10 percent of the time, Pickett had a passer rating of 96.7.

Remarkable numbers.

Also rather noteworthy from the QB Annual: When throwing outside of the numbers was that Pickett was much better throwing to his left than to his right, which seems a bit backward when it comes to right-handed quarterbacks.

Good news is that Pickett has weapons on the outside to win one-on-one matchups down the field and outside the numbers to take advantage of where the 49ers tend to give up space. Diontae Johnson won a ton on outside routes in 2022, according to Reception Perception, while Pickens was a contested-catch monster for Pittsburgh in 50/50 situations along the sideline.

As Alex Kozora noted in his scouting report of the 49ers’ defense Friday morning, San Francisco struggled against certain formations and alignments with receivers, and had some issues with miscommunication at times last season passing off routes. We’ll see if the Steelers can exploit that on Sunday by throwing outside of the numbers and down the field.

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