The Pittsburgh Steelers will never lose again! Obviously, I’m kidding, but the outcomes have refreshingly been better than expected the first two preseason games overall. Early and comfortable leads, explosive plays in assorted fashion, red zone touchdowns, yards after catch (YAC), and much more. For the second season now, I will be charting, visualizing, and providing takeaways for the all-important quarterback position for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with bats at the line of scrimmage. This week, no passes were removed.
Quarterback Kenny Pickett played very well again, on two drives that impressively ended in touchdowns, and all three of his preseason drives have resulted in the end zone. The quick starts have been so refreshing, and one of the many improvement goals from 2022 that we’ve seen success in this preseason.
Pickett only needed four pass attempts this game, leaving coach Mike Tomlin confident to move to the backups quicker than planned. Pickett went 3/4 for 43 yards, 35 completed air yards (81.4%) highlighted by an explosive touchdown on a beautiful back shoulder throw to tight end Pat Freiermuth. His other two completions went for first downs, one a nice third and seven conversion to wide receiver Allen Robinson, finding the soft spot in zone and making the grab despite a big hit. The first down set up running back Jaylen Warren’s triple explosive run for a touchdown. This was encouraging to see after failing to connect on the previous play that was Pickett’s lone incompletion, a bit high on the run and defended well.
Quarterback Mitch Trubisky got more opportunity this game. He went 10/13 for 78 yards, but just 36 completed air yards (46.2%). The highlight was a three-yard red zone touchdown to Connor Heyward, a nice play with physicality off the line and turned out to make the catch at the front of the end zone on third down. Trubisky was in several money down situations, going 3/6 (50%). Quarterback Mason Rudolph was 5/7 for 52 yards, but just 14 completed air yards (26.9%), which was drastically different than his 70.5% completed air yards and two explosive plays in the preseason opener. Quarterback Tanner Morgan appeared in five snaps but didn’t attempt a pass. Hand-offs, kneel downs, and was antsy in the pocket and took a sack on his lone drop back.
Let’s look at a simple view of all 24 charted passes, with number of throws at each pass distance for the game:
The most common pass distance this week was three yards, compared to one yard in the preseason opener. One of the four passes was Trubisky’s touchdown to Heyward, and the other three from Rudolph.
The vast majority of passes were 0-5 air yards this week, at 58.3%. The aforementioned Trubisky touchdown was the most impactful. One was Pickett’s first pass of the game on an out to George Pickens, getting open on the out route at four air yards and doubling that in YAC to move the chains. Another was a good throw by Trubisky. The concept here was with a corner and slant on the left side, hitting wide receiver Cody White on the latter. There was a missed opportunity near the goal line which was a good throw on an out route to wide receiver Gunner Olszewski that was catchable but defended well.
Rudolph had two third down fails at this pass distance. The first, a short pass on third and 20, and the other was his final pass that was nearly picked off. He was successful on a third and four, finding Olszewski on a drag/crossing route at three air yards, who provided ten more in YAC. He also found running back Xazavian Valladay on a leak out at the line of scrimmage, who broke a tackle and provided an explosive 22 yards after catch.
29.2% of passes were 5-10 air yards. One was the aforementioned Robinson third down conversion from Pickett. One of Trubisky’s third down conversions was in this range, a nice slant (refreshing to type that twice after last season) from wide receiver Calvin Austin on a free release to get open, providing another five in YAC as well. Rudolph had a poor decision on one, attempting to fit it in to White, but the defender was there to break it up.
Only three passes at 10-15 air yards (12.5%). Two of those were back-to-back plays at the two-minute warning. One was a miscommunication with Trubisky and Austin that fell incomplete, leading to third and 19. Next, he hit Olszewski on the in route, with good coverage and was tackled well short.
Two passes (8.3%) had explosive air yards (20 or more). The one completion was the Pickett/Freiermuth touchdown, and the other was incomplete at 32 air yards, with Trubisky’s good throw just out of reach for Austin on the left sideline.
15-20 air yards tied for the least common pass distance (4.2%), on just one attempt, Pickett’s lone incompletion to Robinson.
There was only one pass behind the line as well (4.2%), a screen caught by running back Anthony McFarland at -6 air yards, who made a nice cut and gained 12 on the play (18 YAC). While his rushing stats were poor, the YAC contributions the team has gotten so far in the preseason is notably encouraging and will hopefully continue.
Here is the dot chart for the charted throws this game:
The visual highlights a few things right away. Not only was the Pickett/Freiermuth touchdown explosive, it was in the middle of the field. That was a rarity in 2022, which makes it encouraging to see this preseason. Two of his attempts were 15 air yards or more, compared to none in the opener. Only four total incompletions for the three quarterbacks, with three of them coming at ten air yards or more. Trubisky favored the left side of the field on nine of his 13 attempts (69.2%), going 7/9 (77.8 completion rate).
In totality, 12 passes were inside the numbers (50%), an uptick from last week (37%), with the latter being very close to the regular season average from 2022. It was also successful, with 11/12 completed (91.7%), particularly Trubisky going 5/5, and Rudolph having the only incompletion. Nine throws were outside the numbers (37.5%), compared to 48.1 last week and 52.4% in 2022.
Now for completion rates by distances:
Behind the line: This game 1/1 (100%). Preseason 2/2 (100%).
0-5 air yards: This game 5/5 (100%). Preseason 23/24 (95.8%).
5-10 air yards: This game 6/7 (85.7%). Preseason 11/14 (78.6%).
10-15 air yards: This game 1/3 (33.3%). Preseason 7/12 (58.3%).
15-20 air yards: This game 0/1 (0%). Preseason 2/3 (66.6%).
Explosive (20+ air yards): This game 1/2 (50%). Preseason 2/5 (40%).
Five yards or less has been money, with the intermediate range tailing off as you’d expect. 15-20 air yards is a range I have been talking about for a while, with some good there in the preseason opener. Hopefully the team can find more success and quantity there in 2023. The outcomes of the explosive passes have been fun to watch, but the completion rates are aligning with last year (38.2%) to date, and really hoping the connection can positively trend next game and into the regular season. Interested to see how all this progresses.
Now for heat maps, starting with all the charted passes for the game, then completions only:
Very telling visual, with Pickett standing out positively and the backups charts looking more like “dark maps”, particularly on the completions-only view. One caveat, the heat maps function better with more passes, so Pickett’s four passes are a bit wider than if he had more attempts (which we’ll see in the full preseason chart in a bit). The point still remains, Pickett’s explosive touchdown was by far the most impactful in terms of distance, while the backups longest completion was 12 air yards (Trubisky), and all of Rudolph’s completions were five air yards or less.
Now let’s look at the 51 charted throws this preseason:
The most common range has been 0-5 yards, which is true for the vast majority of NFL teams. Here are the preseason percentages by passing distance, including the previous average, and 2022 regular season rates to see trends:
#1. 0-5 air yards: Preseason 45.1%. Previously 33.3%. 2022 33.9%.
#2. 5-10 air yards: Preseason 27.5%. Previously 25.9%. 2022 28.1%.
#3. 10-15 air yards: Preseason 23.5%. Previously 33.3%. 2022 16%.
#4 Explosive (20+ air yards): Preseason 9.8%. Previously 11.1%. 2022 13.9%.
#5. 15-20 air yards: Preseason 5.9%. Previously 7.4%. 2022 9.4%
#6 Behind the line: Preseason 3.9%. Previously 3.7%. 2022 13.6%.
The most notable uptick from last game was 0-5 air yards, putting specific context to the short passing game in the comfortable win. The other was a down-tick at 10-15 air yards, with eight attempts in the preseason opener compared to just three this game. Including the rates from the full 2022 regular season was not for hard conclusions with the preseason and small sample caveats, but to gauge what has been different. Behind the line passes will be interesting to monitor for example, with far more of them last season than we’ve seen so far. I can’t wait to see how all this progresses into the 2023 regular season.
To close, here are the 2023 preseason dots and heat maps for all preseason attempts, along with the completions only heat map, which I will summarize at the end of the preseason:
What are your thoughts on the quarterback performances in the preseason? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
