As I wrote several weeks ago, the Minnesota Vikings were expected to sign tight end T.J. Hockenson to a lucrative contract extension prior to the 2023 regular season getting underway. Well, that has finally happened as of Thursday morning.
According to reports, Hockenson has agreed to a four-year extension with a base value of $66 million in new money and a max value of $68.5 million if he hits included incentives. The total guarantees in the deal are reportedly $42.5 million but only $29.292 million of that is fully guaranteed, according to Over the Cap. Hockenson should have a base new money average of $16.5 million and he’s now the NFL’s second-highest paid tight end behind Darren Waller of the New York Giants.
It should be noted that prior to signing his extension, Hockenson, a former first-round draft pick, was set to earn $9.329 million as part of his fifth-year option on his rookie contract being exercised a few years ago.
Several weeks ago, the Chicago Bears signed their young tight end Cole Kmet to a four-year extension that totaled $50 million. That deal resulted in Kmet having a new money average of $12.5 million. Kmet received $22.893 million fully guaranteed as part of that deal. On the heels of the Hockenson deal, Kmet is tied as the tenth-highest paid tight end in the NFL.
So, what do the new deals this offseason signed by Hockenson and Kmet mean for Pittsburgh Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth? Well, pending the 2023 season that Freiermuth has, those two deals could represent the ceiling and floor when it comes to a new deal next offseason for the Penn State product and former second-round draft pick.
As you can see by the compiled stats below for Hockenson, Kmet and Freiermuth, the Steelers tight end would really likely need a superb career 2023 season to get himself into a situation next offseason where his valuation would equal that of Hockenson. However, a 2023 season similar to the first two that Freiermuth registered, should at least put his valuation greater than Kmet’s, which again, is $12.5 million.
Freiermuth should qualify for a Proven Performance Escalator raise next offseason. Even so, he’ll likely be looking for a lucrative extension next offseason if he stays healthy and has another good statistical showing. He’ll also need to show in 2023 that he can avoid concussions that have hampered his first two years.
While the 2023 season has yet to get underway, I could see Freiermuth’s valuation next offseason being somewhere in the neighborhood of $13.25-$14 million. That valuation, however, is with the expectation that his 2023 season is in the neighborhood of his first two in the NFL, which certainly is plausible as we sit here today.
I’ll next revisit Freiermuth’s valuation midway through the season but in the meantime, I think we now have a good idea as to what it could be next offseason as long as he stays healthy and productive due to Hockenson and Kmet both signing new deals this offseason.
