As the 2023 season draws closer and closer, the hype for — and the anticipation of — the Pittsburgh Steelers is getting louder and louder, especially after the starters’ performances through two preseason games.
Throughout the offseason the Steelers have been a quietly sneaky pick to make the playoffs under longtime head coach Mike Tomlin in a loaded AFC, thanks to the work retooling the roster that GM Omar Khan and assistant GM Andy Weidl did in free agency and in the 2023 NFL Draft.
The Steelers plugged a number of holes, added some key, experienced veterans and seemingly nailed the draft with an impressive haul overall. Not to mention, quarterback Kenny Pickett appears poised to take a second-year leap, while the defense sees all three stars in Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick return for another season.
Things are looking up for the Steelers, and the performance in the preseason has done nothing to temper those expectations.
Well, at least for most.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell tempered those expectations though, projecting the Steelers as one of four teams that will decline in the 2023 season along with the New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles.
“There’s a definite tier gap in confidence between the first three teams, and the Steelers are in fourth for me. There are definite paths to them winning 10 games, especially if Pickett takes a second-year leap,” Barnwell writes regarding the Steelers and a potential decline for ESPN.com. “If the defense loses one of the big three, the team struggles to stay as healthy as it did and/or the offense stops protecting the ball, I’m not sure we can count on the Steelers to keep Tomlin’s streak going into season 17.”
Poor health and an increase in turnovers…Barnwell’s really going out on a limb there as to why the Steelers might decline in 2023.
Of course, that poor health and turnovers were a huge reason the Steelers were 2-6 at the Week Nine bye win 2022. Without Watt, Pittsburgh struggled to get after the quarterback and create turnovers defensively. After making the move to Pickett at halftime of the Week Four loss to the New York Jets, the Steelers turned the ball over a ton with Pickett throwing eight interceptions in four-and-a-half games.
It wasn’t pretty, and the Steelers seemed to be sunk when it came to extending Tomlin’s non-losing seasons streak.
Then, the second half of the season happened.
The Steelers got healthy with the return of Watt and veteran defensive back Damontae Kazee defensively, and Pickett and the offense stopped turning the football over. In fact, protection of the football went to some impressive levels.
Pittsburgh turned the ball over just five times in the final nine games of the season, with three of those turnovers coming in Week 17 against the Baltimore Ravens on the road. Pickett’s interception percentage went from an astronomical 4.8 percent to an impressive 0.4 percent in the second half of the season.
There is no denying that Pittsburgh figured things out in the second half from a team and individual perspective. Pickett learned what he can and can’t do with the football in the NFL, too, which was key in the improvement down the stretch, along with a dominant run game.
So why, exactly, can’t that happen again in 2023?
For Barnwell, the numbers historically shape his opinion.
Teams that have had that dramatic of a turnaround within a season when it comes to turnovers like the Steelers did typically don’t carry that over into the next season and see an increase in turnovers. It’s bound to happen. Even with Pittsburgh putting an emphasis on protecting the football, running the ball and leaning on a strong defense, the turnovers are bound to happen. It’s the NFL.
Along with concerns about the turnovers, Barnwell is worried about depth, especially defensively.
Feels like he hasn’t taken a deep dive on the Steelers or the training camp and preseason performances.
Pittsburgh has great depth at outside linebacker behind Watt, which was a massive concern last season. Same at inside linebacker with three veterans in Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts and Kwon Alexander leading the way.
Safety has strong, experienced depth with Fitzpatrick, Kazee and Keanu Neal as the top three, while the defensive line feels stronger overall with the additions of rookie Keeanu Benton and veterans Armon Watts and Breiden Fehoko, and the growth and development from DeMarvin Leal and Isaiahh Loudermilk.
Cornerback remains a concern behind Patrick Peterson, Levi Wallace and rookie Joey Porter Jr., but this team feels deeper than it has in years.
Of course, losing any one of Watt, Heyward or Fitzpatrick for an extended period will be a big blow to the Steelers, but that’s the case for any team in the NFL potentially losing a star. Why that’s used as an argument against the Steelers is puzzling.
While everyone is jumping aboard the Steelers bandwagon entering the 2023 season, Barnwell is going the other way. Time will tell if he’s right in the end.
