As they do right before every season, ESPN analytics, led by Seth Walder, issued their sack projections of the Top 50 players in the NFL for the 2023 season. Three Pittsburgh Steelers players showed up on the list in T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Cam Heyward. Here are the projections for each player, each coming in surprisingly low.
1. TJ Watt – 11.1 (4th in NFL)
2. Alex Highsmith – 9.4 (9th in NFL)
3. Cameron Heyward – 6.0 (tied-47th in NFL)
Not exactly goals any of these three players have this season. But in fairness, these ESPN projections tend to skew on the hyper-conservative side, though you have to wonder why they’re used if the data spits out unlikely results.
Watt is looking for a bounce-back season after missing the first half of 2022 with a partially torn pectoral muscle. He came back after the Steelers’ bye week and ended the year with 5.5 sacks with 4.5 of them coming following his return. Now healthy, he figures to be among the league leader’s in sacks this season and will look to lead the NFL again, something he’s done twice in his career already. Walder noted the data says “all signs point to a rebound in 2023.”
Highsmith broke out in a big way a year ago, leading the team and finishing sixth in the NFL with 14.5 sacks. Dropping under double-digits would be a disappointment, though analytics generally haven’t been kind to him.
“Highsmith’s big jump in sacks — he had just six in 2021 — came right as he dipped in pass rush win rate, going from a remarkable 24% at edge in 2020 to 16% in 2021 to 13% in 2022.”
Still, Highsmith improved his ability to finish and not only recorded sacks but forced fumbles, leading the league with five of them in 2022. He’s been working on new moves and counters this training camp and avoided any sort of a hold-in with a long-term deal signed shortly before training camp opened up.
For Heyward, six sacks would be an alarm going off. With double-digit sacks in each of his last two years, including 10.5 a year ago (the second-most he’s ever had in a season), he’s still running strong even in his mid-30s. His bull rush/long-arm is among the most potent in the arm, right up there next to Vita Vea and Dexter Lawrence, and he remains one of the best interior rushers in football. The analytics likely ding him due to his age. Since 2018, only one player 34 years or older finished with 10+ sacks, Brandon Graham in 2022. And the last true interior defensive lineman to do it was Warren Sapp in 2006. Since the turn of the century, John Randle in 2001 is the only other name in that category. Heyward will look to be the third.
According to ESPN’s analytics, Cleveland Browns’ DE Myles Garrett is projected to finish first in the league with 13.2 sacks. Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers is right behind at 13.1. He’s still holding out for a new contract and there’s no rumblings as to whether or not he’ll play in Week One, a matchup against the Steelers. Dallas’ Micah Parsons and Philadelphia’s Hassan Reddick join Watt in the Top Five.
