The addition of Allen Robinson II this offseason thanks to a trade with the Los Angeles Rams has gotten Pittsburgh Steelers fans very excited. After a few subpar years from Chase Claypool, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Steven Sims Jr. at the slot wide receiver position, Pittsburgh now has a proven commodity in the slot. However, last season Robinson had his worst season as a pro as he suffered through poor quarterback play and injury. Being 30 years old when the season kicks off, what does Robinson have to do to make the trade worth it for the Steelers?
To start, let’s look back at the details of the trade. Pittsburgh gave up their seventh-round pick in the 2023 draft (pick 234) for Robinson and the Rams seventh round-pick (251). Basically, the Steelers and Rams just swapped picks as Pittsburgh gained a proven slot receiver and the Rams just wanted to get him off their books as they start their rebuild.
Now that we see what Pittsburgh gave up to acquire Robinson, what type of stat line does he have to put up for this move to be worth it? Because Pittsburgh gave up so little for him, Robinson won’t have to put up insane numbers for this trade to be considered a “win,” but he will have to do better than last season. Yes, Robinson was hampered by injury and bad quarterback play, but 33 receptions for 339 yards and three touchdowns isn’t ideal.
Robinson has inside-outside versatility which should allow him to see some more playing time than just at slot even though that is where he will probably primarily line up. In addition, quarterback Kenny Pickett will provide more stability than the quarterback carousel that was Los Angeles last season. These two things combined should see Robinson’s numbers increase. While he is clearly the fourth target at best on this offense after Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth, ideally Robinson can haul in around 40 targets for 400 yards and four touchdowns while being a threat in the slot.
These numbers aren’t much better than his numbers last season but context also matters. Pittsburgh is intent on running the football often this year which means fewer opportunities for Robinson. Last season, Claypool, Sims and Gunner Olszewski caught a total of 40 passes. With a healthy Calvin Austin III, I don’t expect Robinson to see every single snap, as Austin will eat into some of his targets. However, with his inside-outside versatility, I do think Robinson will see the field enough to rack up 40 catches. Due to how the Steelers use their WR3, and with the possible emergence of Austin, it is hard to imagine Robinson sees 70+ targets. And just because Robinson may see around 60 targets, he isn’t going to come down with all of those, making his reception number much lower.
While a stat line of 40/400/4 isn’t insane numbers by any means, Pittsburgh did not give up much for him. It isn’t realistic to expect Robinson to play at his 2020 level when he was WR1 for the Chicago Bears and racked up 102 catches for 1,250 yards. That isn’t what the Steelers traded for, they traded for a receiver who can start in the slot but also be effective on the outside if needed due to injury. As long as Robinson stays healthy and provides a threat this trade will be worth it for Pittsburgh. Of course, a big year would be nice, but given how the Steelers offense is designed and the fact that he is lower on the pecking order in terms of targets means it is highly unlikely he has a huge year.
If Robinson can give the Steelers 40 catches for 400 yards and four touchdowns while being a reliable target when open I think this trade will 100% have been worth it. Although with a name like Allen Robinson, you expect more, but given the context and what was given up, that stat line is certainly acceptable.
