While there are many people who are currently high on the Pittsburgh Steelers entering the 2023 season there are also some who are not. One who falls into the latter is Warren Sharp from Warren Sharp FB Analysis, who has some major concerns about the Steelers.
“I’m not down and out on the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I do have major concerns about them heading into 2023,” Sharp said in a YouTube short. “This offense has not been explosive. Last season they had only seven touchdowns of ten-plus yards. Lowest in the NFL. Kenny Pickett, when throwing the ball 10-plus yards down the field ranked dead last in yards per attempt.
“As a result of not being able to generate explosive plays they had to be brilliant on third downs. They won six of their last seven games in large part because of Kenny Pickett being brilliant on third down, but on early downs he was below average. I don’t think they’re going to be able to sustain their efficiency on third downs next year and Matt Canada said he’s going to utilize more plays action. [Their] play-action game was terrible last year. One of the worst in the NFL. They used it at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. I think the Pittsburgh Steelers take a slight step back this year.”
Last season the Steelers did have one of the least explosive offenses in the NFL, but they were still able to perform well as they wore teams down in the back half of the year with long drives and a smothering defense. Pittsburgh is planning on running back the same formula this year, which Sharp clearly isn’t a fan of.
However, there is some more potential for Pittsburgh to increase its explosive plays. Wide receiver Calvin Austin III has been praised immensely for his speed and ability in practices and last year in training camp before he went down with an injury. If he can stay healthy this season, he can be a game breaker which helps spring way more explosive plays.
While Pickett did not average a ton of yards per attempt, his deep ball was very accurate, second best in the NFL last year with a 37.5 completion percentage. Year Two Pickett should be more comfortable in the pocket, which should allow him push to the ball down the field a little more. With him already being accurate, this could help the team create more explosive plays.
Sharp’s point about the Steelers being highly successful on third down not being sustainable is missing some context: they had one of the lower yards-to-go distances in 2022. Pittsburgh averaged 6.5 yards-to-go on third downs last season and converted on 44.5-percent on third downs.
Eight of the 10 teams that also had a third-down distance of 6.5 yards or less converted at over a 40-percent rate with four of those teams converting at a higher percentage than Pittsburgh. For a team with a shorter distance to go on third down, the Steelers converted right around where they should have on third downs. So why should we expect them to take a big step back?
While Pickett does need to improve on first and second down, why can’t he? He was a rookie last season and normally you expect a quarterback to improve the next season as he now has more experience and a full offseason of work.
It is certainly possible for the Steelers to take a slight step back this season, but I personally don’t expect it. The Steelers improved their offensive line and gave Pickett some more weapons to help him out. In addition, the Steelers fell right where they should have last year on third down conversions given the context, with Pickett in Year Two they could actually improve in that category.
Yes, it would be nice if they get more explosive plays, but when the team is fully healthy, the Steelers have proven their style of football works. A few more explosive plays combined with an elite defense we saw at the end of last season screams playoffs to me, not a losing record.
