Many have speculated if the Pittsburgh Steelers will sign edge rusher Alex Highsmith to a contract extension this offseason, and today I wanted to join the club. I usually refrain from these types of articles considering Dave Bryan, who is a cap guru, highlights the topic extremely well, including his thoughts on Highsmith that you should definitely check out. My goal is to use a statistical approach, to see how Highsmith has performed in his first three NFL seasons compared to the top-paid players at the position currently via Over The Cap.
First, I wanted to see where Highsmith stacked up among edge rushers at an average yearly value of $10 million or more in grades from Pro Football Focus (PFF), viewing their average pass rush and run defense grades the last three years, along with total snaps over the span as their dot sizes:
For starters, we see several familiar names at the top right of the visual, with the strongest balanced grades as pass rushers and run defenders. This includes Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt, who currently has the highest yearly value at the position. Highsmith lands below the mean in both, and for more context, letâs look at his yearly grades. As a pass rusher, Highsmith had a 70.7 grade in 2022, 67.7 in 2021, and 71.5 his rookie 2020 season. He notably improved in run defense each season, with 73.3, 66.5, and 57.7 marks.
Here is a ranking table of the grades from the first visual, including pass rush grades (PR RANK), run grades (RUN RANK), and averaging the two (AVG RANK), then using total snaps as a tiebreaker to get a final ranking (TOT RANK) of the 24 qualifying players along with their average yearly values (AYV) in parenthesis:
Refreshingly, we see Watt at the top of the chart, with his total rank aligning to his highest average yearly value. Highsmith comes in with a 17th TOT RANK, with his 16th RUN RANK slightly better than a similar 17th PR RANK. Heâs sandwiched between Bengals edge rushers Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, who have average yearly values of $15 and $10 million. Of the seven players lower than Highsmith in TOT RANK, four of them have 15+ average yearly values: Dolphins’ Bradley Chubb (22), Raiders’ Chandler Jones (17), Titans’ Harold Landry (17.5), and another Dolphin in Emmanuel Ogbah (16.4). Eight of the 16 players with a higher TOT RANK were at $15 million or below.
Next, I wanted to look at average rates over the three-year span in the same facets of the game, using pass rush win rates and run stop rates:
Here we see Highsmithâs run stop rate has been well above average among the qualifying players, with a respectable sixth rank in that regard, though he regressed in this stat last season (5.6% in 2022, 9.6% in 2021, and 9.4% in 2020). His pass rush win rate the last three seasons was below average though, actually regressing each season (9.8%, 12.4%, and 15%). Some of this likely is due to teams getting more familiar with him as his career has progressed, along with Wattâs injury in 2022 (missing seven games), allowing the opposition to focus on him more and surely affecting Highsmithâs rates last season. Speaking of Watt, he was above the mean in both regards again, landing a bit lower than the grades view though, including an eighth-ranked run stop rate that was lower than Highsmith’s.
Here is a similar ranking table to earlier, including pass rush win rate (PRWR RANK), run stop rate (RSR RANK), and averaging the two (AVR RANK), then using the same tiebreaker of total snaps to get the final rank (TOT RANK):
Watt lands a bit lower in this view, but ranking in the top five in TOT RANK on both tables is impressive, with the Chargers’ Joey Bosa and the Cowboys’ Demarcus Lawrence (at a bargain 13.3 AYV) the other players to accomplish this. Highsmith fared better thanks to his strong RSR RANK (sixth), but ranked 15th in PRWR, for an 11th total rank among the 24 qualifiers. Looking at the players near him in the ranks, we see AYVâs from 13.3 up to 17.5 million. Of the 13 players lower than him in TOT RANK, eight of those have an AYV of 15 million or more, while two players who ranked higher than Highsmith were below that threshold.
When considering a possible contract extension for Highsmith, I think Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin described him best as an “Elite Robin,” a great complement to Watt, who is of course Batman, donning the role and apt colors for our beloved black and gold. Considering this, the statistical view today, and Bryanâs projections (15-17.5 million) which align nicely to the article, it wouldnât surprise me if the Steelers do indeed offer him a contract extension this offseason, the offer being within that range. If so, Watt and Highsmith would become the fourth pair at the position with $15 million-plus contracts across the league joining rhw Chargers’ Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, the Raiders’ Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, and Dolphins’ Bradley Chubb and Emmanuel Ogbah. Iâm personally hoping thatâs the case so the formidable duo of Watt and Highsmith can stay together for the foreseeable future.
What are your thoughts on the data and a possible Highsmith contract extension? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
