A strong running game, a suffocating defense and being able to come through in key situations on both sides of the football was a recipe for success in the second half of the 2022 season for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers like their one-score games. They feel most comfortable in those moments.
During the Mike Tomlin era — Tomlin became head coach in 2007 — using more historical data, the Steelers lead the NFL in one-possession games with 150. Over that span, they have the second-best winning percentage (60 percent), behind only the New England Patriots (who have only played in 107 close games, the NFL’s fewest).
It’s a style of ball they like to play.
They’re just going to need to score more points if that’s the case, because they can’t keep asking the defense to do all the heavy lifting.
Really enlightening words, I know.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Steelers did something just one other team did in the last two decades has done: post a winning record while scoring such few points per game. In 2022, the Steelers scored just 18.1 points per game under offensive coordinator Matt Canada, tied for fifth-worst in the NFL.
Teams like Denver, Indianapolis, Houston, the New York Jets, and Tennessee scored fewer points per game. Know what all those teams had in common last season? Losing records.
Since 2006, only the 2016 Houston Texans (17.4 points per game) and last season’s Steelers have produced a winning record while scoring that few points per game.
“At this point, it feels like a given that the Steelers won’t field a losing team with Mike Tomlin as their head coach. 2022 may have been his best work yet. The 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers had a winning record despite scoring just 18.1 points per game. Since 2006, the only other team that posted a winning record while scoring that many points per game, or fewer, is the 2016 Houston Texans (17.4),” PFF’s Dalton Wasserman writes in a piece for PFF.com highlighting one stat to know for all 32 teams. “Quarterback play is at the forefront of success for any team, and the Steelers are going to need a big leap in production from Kenny Pickett to contend for the postseason this year.”
The onus won’t be on just Pickett to make a leap in 2023. The offense as a whole, from Canada on down, must be better.
Explosive plays remain at the forefront of the discussion for the Steelers entering the 2023 season. While Tomlin has stated in the past that his ideal offense looks like one that controls possessions, limits mistakes and turnovers and finishes drives with points, there has to be more there than just the basics for the Black and Gold this season.
Pickett posted some very solid numbers overall when pushing the ball down the field as a rookie through the air despite the limited chances to do so. The playbook has to be opened up this season through the air. Concepts have to be more creative designed to give Pickett options and answers, and the running game has to pick up where it left off late last season, when it finished No. 7 in the NFL during the second half of the season.
Health will be a key, as will the development of young pieces like Pickett, wide receiver George Pickens and an offensive line that has seen significant upgrades the last two offseasons through the draft (Broderick Jones) and free agency (Isaac Seumalo, Mason Cole, James Daniels).
On paper, Pittsburgh has the look of a clear contender in a very difficult AFC. They’ll lean on the defense to be arguably the league’s best, but if they are going to post a winning record again and potentially get into the playoffs, the offense has to score more points and take some of the pressure off the defense to be near perfect weekly.
That doesn’t sound like it’s asking too much.
