While Najee Harris has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his two seasons in the NFL, he hasn’t had a truly great season yet. But bettors are banking on that happening in 2023, with 42.1 percent of all money on Harris to lead the NFL in rushing at +1800 on the BetMGM Sportsbook.
Given Harris’ odds, there’s certainly value to be had. He’s below Breece Hall (+1600), who is coming off a torn ACL, and has the same odds as Rhamondre Stevenson of the New England Patriots. Harris has struggled with efficiency, but the volume is there, and he’s produced over 1,000 yards in a season twice now.
With an offensive line that should be improved with the additions of Isaac Seumalo and Broderick Jones and the potential for an elite blocking tight end in Darnell Washington, bettors are looking at a very nice potential return on investment if Harris can figure things out.
Frankly, it makes sense. Harris was solid in the second half of last season and dealt with an injury during the early part of the year. With his pedigree as a former first-round pick, a breakout needs to happen this season, especially with a decision on his fifth-year option looming.
There’s certainly an outside possibility Harris leads the NFL in rushing. While I think he’s going to have a good season and is more talented than his efficiency has shown, there are a lot of backs who have been more productive and who are going to get fed the rock. But there’s more value to be found with Harris, hence more money on him.
Jaylen Warren’s presence certainly complicates matters as well, as he’s going to be the third-down back and could cut into more snaps on early downs. Obviously, bettors are going to be looking for the largest return on investment, which is what gives Harris an edge over guys like Nick Chubb (+700) or Derrick Henry (+900), but to lead the NFL in rushing is going to be a tall task.
Especially when you consider that the Steelers likely will open the playbook up and give more opportunities to Kenny Pickett, it just doesn’t seem as if Harris could get there. But this is the time for him to have a breakout season, and it’s a possibility. But I’m not sure I would bet on it becoming a reality.
