The NFL running back has become a huge talking point this offseason, especially on the heels of Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard all failing to get long-term contract extensions after being franchise tagged before the start of the new league year. Upon his arrival to training camp on Wednesday, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris said his piece concerning the running back market and essentially how it isn’t fair. On the heels of that, speculation is beginning that the Steelers running back might be headed for a drama-filled summer in 2024 in hopes of landing a new contract.
On Wednesday, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk was interviewed on 93.7 the Fan, and essentially said the Steelers should possibly anticipate some sort of drama next offseason with Harris, especially if the former first round draft pick out of Alabama has a very good 2023 season.
“Well, yes, and that’s the bottom line when it comes to any of these individual running backs. If you have a big third year, if you’re a drafted player, you can’t renegotiate your contract by rule for three regular seasons,” Florio said. “For any running back that has a big third year, that’s when you make your move, whether you do it behind the scenes and you convince the team to give you a long-term deal like Christian McCaffrey did with the Panthers a few years back after his third season. And his third season, he became the third guy ever to have a thousand yards rushing and a thousand yards receiving. Or you do what Ezekiel Elliott did four years ago where he held out and he stayed away until the Cowboys gave him the deal he was looking for.
“So, if Najee Harris has a huge year, that means it’s time for him to take a stand and it’s time for him to try to get paid. That’s how an individual running back gets a great contract. It begins though with the great third year. Saquon Barkley tore his ACL early in his third year, so he wasn’t in a position to try to get a big contract after three seasons. The key is gonna be stay healthy, have a big year, and then Najee Harris makes his move for a big contract.”
Florio made some good points when it comes to running backs trying to effort hard for a new deal after playing three seasons in the NFL. The situation with McCaffrey and the Carolina Panthers after his third NFL seasons is one for the ages and, quite honestly, the NFL running back fraternity probably has made him its poster boy. In case you forgot, the Panthers actually signed McCaffrey to a four-year, $64 million contract extension in April 2020, ahead of the team needing to decide whether to pick up his fifth-year option. That deal also reportedly included $30.0625 million being fully guaranteed.
Now, McCaffrey is a different running back than most. Not only did he show right out of the chute in the NFL that he could produce on the ground, he also showed he could function in the passing game as well. He produced 5,443 total yards from scrimmage and 39 total touchdowns in his first three NFL seasons. On Wednesday, Florio discussed how running backs such as McCaffrey help their cause by being able to produce in the passing game in addition to on the ground.
“So, there are some running backs that are just great offensive weapons,” Florio said. “That’s what Le’Veon Bell was trying to do [with the Steelers] five or six years ago. The stuff he went through with the Steelers is the standard run of the mill fare now for a lot of these top running backs. And he handled it the way he did, and some could say it blew up in his face, but he still ended up with $27, $28 million fully guaranteed the following year after he sat out the full season from the Jets.
“So, that’s just the way it goes. And the more you contribute in the passing game, the better argument you have as a running back to get treated differently than the guys who are the old school three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust type between-the-tackles runners.”
When it comes to Harris and his contract future, he needs to get there first, and he needs to get there after having a career season in total yards from scrimmage in 2023. Oh, he probably better have another 12 or so touchdowns in 2023 as well. If he is able to post at least 1,700 total yards from scrimmage in 2023 and stay fully healthy in doing so, the summer of 2024 would be the perfect opportunity for him to posture for a new deal.
Now, working against Harris next summer, regardless of how he plays in 2023, is how the Steelers have done business in the past, especially when it comes to their former first-round draft picks and the use of the fifth-year option. In short, the Steelers like to exercise the fifth-year option on former first-round draft picks and then look to possibly extend the player the following summer. Most recently, outside linebacker T.J. Watt and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick are examples of that process. Watt had 34.5 sacks after his first three NFL seasons. Even so, he still had to play his fourth NFL season after having his fifth-year option exercised in the summer of 2020 before getting a new top-of-the-market deal in 2021.
Back to Harris. If he gets himself in a situation where the Steelers really do want to pick up his fifth-year option for the 2025 season next summer, should Pittsburgh seriously consider signing him to an extension prior to the May decision deadline? It’s a reasonable question to ask. As for my answer, here it goes.
If the Steelers are going to extend Harris, doing so after his third NFL season would make the most sense due to his age and tire-tread usage. Obviously, Harris would need to have had a career 2023 season. Additionally, Harris would need to expect that only his first-year money as part of an extension would be fully guaranteed. That probably wouldn’t go over well with all these running backs talking about security in addition to market value of their position.
Any summer of 2024 extension for Harris would have easy and obvious ceilings as part of the framework structure. Those ceilings used against Harris would be related to his 2025 fifth-year option amount and projected franchise tag amounts for 2026 and 2027. Those amounts, along with the $2,439,198 that Harris is set to earn in 2024, would set a max possible cash flow amount for him for 2024 through 2027, and that’s only if he remained healthy and productive. And once again, any new extension next summer for Harris would certainly not have full guarantees past the signing bonus and 2024 base salary. That amount would likely be around $12-$13 million at a maximum, speculating this far out.
Oh, and it’s hard to imagine Harris topping McCaffrey’s new money average of $16,015,853 or even the $15 million new money average of New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara. That Kamara deal, by the way, is heavily backloaded to make the new money average really inflated.
Here’s something to also think about if you want to look ahead to the next offseason. There’s a decent chance that the current top three highest-paid running backs in the NFL, McCaffrey, Kamara, and Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans, might all be looking for new homes by the middle of March. I feel sure that Kamara and Henry will be. What if that happens?
What if Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb silently becomes the highest-paid running back in the NFL at $12.2 million by the end of March 2024? If the Steelers then proceeded to sign Harris to a four-year extension prior to picking up his fifth-year option in May, they could easily make Harris the highest paid running back in the NFL at a $12.5 million new money average, albeit with about that same amount only being fully guaranteed. Would Harris go for that after hopefully having a career year in 2023? I don’t see why he wouldn’t.
Look, Harris, and all NFL running backs for that matter, are between a rock and a hard place right now. They know it deep down inside. They know that until the new CBA in 2030, running backs are pretty much screwed. Until the next McCaffrey comes along, a $16 million new money average might be hard to come by.
The best thing that Harris can do after speaking his peace on Wednesday is to go out and have a career 2023 season while remaining fully healthy. I would also suggest he start laying low on the running back market talk now that he’s made his thoughts known on the topic. If he does all of that, and if the top of the running back market falls out by the middle of next March, I think there’s a super tiny chance that Harris could get a new deal next April or May and actually become the NFL’s highest paid running back.
The problem with that is Harris wouldn’t likely have any real guarantees in a new deal so he would have essentially gone nowhere near helping the running back cause should he indeed sign such an extension. See the conundrum here?
Harris is going to be in a tough position next offseason but hopefully that is a result of a career season in 2023. The other side of that tough position is him coming off a so-so 2023 season and then facing the prospects of the Steelers thinking long and hard about not exercising his fifth-year option in May.
Personally, I don’t think Harris will be a drama issue after the 2023 season. I think the situation he’ll be facing next offseason will be cut and dry enough for him not to cause any problems and certainly not close to the level of what former Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell did several years ago.
Look, the 2023 season is about to get underway and at that point we’ll start discussing Harris on the field and not his matters off of it. Do I think Harris will ultimately sign a contract extension with the Steelers at any point in the future? Deep down inside, no, I don’t. However, if Harris were to get a new deal, it would make sense for him to angle hard for that after the 2023 season. What would that angle look like it? Skipping OTAs? It’s possible, but if he were to do that, then I guess you would say his situation ended up with him producing drama after all.
