Most observers agree that there was a marked difference between how the Pittsburgh Steelers played in the second half of the season versus the first half. The two chief variables were getting running back Najee Harris and outside linebacker T.J. Watt as healthy as could be expected relative to the injuries they suffered.
But it also had to so with the play of rookie starting quarterback Kenny Pickett, and Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus pulled some interesting numbers which he shared yesterday that put the young Steelers star in some pretty exclusive and elite company.
According to the outlet’s date—and really, they kind of made up at least one of these data points—only Pickett and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow after week eight has a Big-Time Throw rate higher than 5 percent while posting a Turnover-Worthy Throw rate of under 2 percent. Burrow was 5.9 percent and 1.6. Pickett was 6.3 percent and 1.5.
So what in the world is a Big-Time Throw, you ask? While it may not exactly be a real statistic, it is an important one. Basically, they are the throws quarterbacks make during a game that stand out in a positive way, difficult throws that have an impact in changing the game.
Then again, a big-time throw doesn’t necessarily even have to be a completed pass, if the ball is dropped. One PFF article once wrote, “the big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window”.
While Pickett may not have necessarily looked like he was throwing the ball all over the field all the time, I think any Steelers fan who watched last season recalls a number of throws he made, particularly late in games, that were critical. He probably had about half a dozen just to tight end Pat Freiermuth alone.
Of course, Pickett only threw one interception after the bye week, but a turnover-worthy throw isn’t a throw that is intercepted. It’s neither a necessary nor sufficient condition. A turnover-worthy throw could be a pass that falls out of a defender’s arms. A non-turnover-worthy throw could have bounced off of his own target’s hand and been intercepted by a defender.
These statistics attempt to isolate quarterback play by removing some of the variables that affect traditional statistics that are strictly results-based rather than effort-based. Obviously you want the results, but the effort is a better predictor of future performance.
In other words, it’s a very good sign that Pickett is in this group with Burrow, as having both a high Big-Time Throw rate and a low Turnover-Worthy Throw rate. But of course it’s also a small sample size, and an arbitrary one. Still, there’s no reason not to feel good about it for now.
