The amount of time quarterbacks take to get rid of the football is important context to their overall performance, and today I wanted to take a look at how Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett fared his rookie year in these terms. The goal of this article is to look at quick passing (under 2.5 seconds and extended passing (2.5 seconds or longer) for comparative context. Using Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) passing grades for each, I will take a look at how Pickett fared among his peers during the 2022 regular season, along with the first and second half of the year to see how things trended.
Let’s see how the quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 total dropbacks fared during the full regular season:
For the entire regular season, we see Pickett on the top middle of the chart, emphasizing his stronger extended passing grade of 72.1, which ranked 14th out of the 35 qualifying quarterbacks. His quick passing grade came in at 69.9, which ranked lower at 19th and was just below the NFL mean.
Diving deeper into the stats, here is more context:
Quick Passing: 38.6 percent dropback rate (31st), 75.6 percent completion rate (T-eighth), 1,076 yards (23rd), 6.4 yards per attempt (16th), four touchdowns (third least) and three interceptions, along with a 92.3 NFL passer rating (25th).
Extended Passing: 61.4 percent (fifth), 53.6 percent completion rate (25th), 1,328 yards (23rd), 6.0 yards per attempt, which tied for last, three touchdowns and six interceptions, along with a 65.1 NFL passer rating (32nd).
The main positive that jumps out was his high completion percentage on quick passes, connecting with his targets in more “high-percentage” situations as one would hope. Another interesting takeaway were his dropback rates, holding on to the football more than most quarterbacks last season. There are pros and cons to this, with the main negative obviously being put in harm’s way more often, which Pickett definitely was considering the two concussions he suffered his rookie year. The offseason upgrades to the offensive line will hopefully keep him upright and avoid injury in 2023, aiding to even more rewards in extended passing this season.
Extending the play to throw is something we saw Pickett improve at his rookie year, but taking off with the football is an obvious positive he provides. Pickett had 28 scrambles in these situations (tied for seventh) and had a 77.7 run grade that ranked 13th, highlighting his above average strengths in this regard. Hopefully he continues to make better decisions in Year Two, as we saw him improve throughout his rookie year.
While Pickett had an above average extended passing grade, he lacked success over the regular season in some key stats. Tying for last in yards per attempt is a big one to improve on in 2023 considering these situations allow more time for receivers to get downfield and open. That would factor into the dire and hopeful improvement Pittsburgh’s offense needs to make in the explosive-play department. Pickett will also need to improve his touchdown-interception ratio regardless of situation, but we see his minus-three differential in extended passing is the area he should look to improve most in 2023, highlighted by the substantial difference in his passer ratings in these situations.
Next, let’s look at the results in the first half of the season (Weeks One through Nine):
Here we see Pickett on the bottom left of the chart, with lower grades than his season averages as expected. In the first half of Pickett’s rookie season, he had a 61 quick passing grade (26th) and a 58.3 extended passing grade (22nd), compared to 69.9 (19th) and 72.1 (14th) on the season. Encouraging improvements from his rookie year, particularly in extended situations.
Let’s dive deeper into the stats from Weeks One through Nine:
Quick Passing: 44.7 percent dropback rate (23rd), 76.2 completion percentage (tied-fourth), 501 yards (26th), 6.0 yards per attempt (tied-21st), two touchdowns, three interceptions, and an 83.5 passer rating (29th).
Extended Passing: 55.3 dropback percentage (11th), 60 percent completion rate (10th), 461 yards (32nd), dead last with 5.8 yards per attempt, no touchdowns and five interceptions, contributing to a very stark 50.1 passer rating that was also worst in the NFL.
Pickett’s best singular result the first half of 2022 was his high completion percentage on quick passes, which ranked better than the full season. This makes sense with the conservative approach the Pittsburgh offense employed to start his rookie year, and considering Pickett’s accuracy. He was largely lower in the stat ranks though, and particularly notable was all three of his quick pass interceptions came in the first half of 2022.
We also see a noticeable difference in Pickett’s dropback splits, with a differential (extended dropbacks/quick dropbacks) of 10.6 the first nine weeks, compared to 22.8 on the season. He did rank high comparatively in extended dropbacks and completion rate among his peers to start the year, but his painful minus-five TD/INT ratio that included no touchdowns emphasizes the growing pains out of the gate.
Important context is the well documented struggles Pittsburgh’s offensive line had as well, allowing pressure on 43.8 percent of his extended dropbacks, putting Pickett in many unfavorable positions as he began his NFL journey. Pickett had 14 scrambles (tied-10th), which was exactly half of his season attempts in fewer games, highlighting his more antsy nature to take off and run, and had a 70.6 run grade (17th) that was considerably lower than his season grade.
Now let’s see how the quarterbacks fared the latter half of the 2022 regular season (Weeks 10 through 18):
Pickett substantially improved the latter half of the season, landing comfortably and encouragingly above the mean in both data points. His quick passing grade came in at 75.4, which ranked eighth, along with a 78.1 extended passing grade that moved all the way up to fifth best. We get great data context to what we saw unfold through the season, and seeing how he stacked up amongst his peers to end the 2022 season gives great optimism in my opinion for his outlook in 2023, with a seemingly stronger and more experienced offense as well.
Let’s dive deeper into the improved second half of the season:
Quick Passing: 34 percent dropback rate (25th), 75 percent completion rate (13th), 575 yards (20th), 6.8 yards per attempt (tied for 11th), two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 101 passer rating (13th).
Extended Passing: 66 percent dropback rate (fifth), 50% completion rate (28th), 867 yards (15th), 6.2 yards per attempt (27th), three touchdowns, one interception, and a 73.7 passer rating (26th).
A few things stand out, including more extended passing the latter half of his rookie year, which makes sense as we saw the 2022 Pittsburgh offense open things up more. For stats context, Pickett’s dropback differential was 32 to end the year, compared to 10.6 the first nine weeks, and 22.8 on the regular season.
The quick pass game is where we saw Pickett improve the most, with the encouraging jumps in yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio (no interceptions), and his lone passer rating to eclipse 100, while maintaining a strong completion percentage. That is all very encouraging. While Pickett had more extended throws the latter half of the season, there was more to be desired in terms of overall success.
The most notable improvement was a plus-two TD/INT ratio compared to minus-five the first half of the year, with Pickett taking care of the football much better. The well-documented hope for 2023 (regardless of situation) is more explosive plays and of course scoring. He also showed improvement as a scrambler, with 14 attempts (tied-eighth) and a 76.6 run grade (10th) compared to a 70.6 grade the first nine weeks.
Extended passing areas Pickett should look to improve are his completion rate, which regressed the back half of 2022 in more opportunities, as well as pushing the ball down the field more in these situations, though his yards per attempt did slightly improve through his rookie year. Here’s to hoping he can keep his overall positive momentum going, while improving in some important areas that the data helped me highlight today. One thing’s for sure: I can’t wait to see how Pickett and the offense fare in these terms in 2023.
What are your thoughts on the data from 2022? How do you think Pickett and the 2023 offense will fare in the quick and extended passing game? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
