Welcome back to your Pittsburgh Steelers mailbag. As always, we’re here for the next hour to answer whatever is on your mind.
To your questions!
Steelers Depot: Over or under 18.5 total TD passes for Kenny Pickett in 2023?
Alex: I’m going to nudge slightly on the over 19-20 is my expectation for him. It’s reasonable to assume his TD % will double from his rookie season, meaning it’ll go from 1.8 to 3.6. And if you assume he throws around 550 times in 2023, 32.3 times per game (the NFL average last year was 33.3), you end up with 19.8 touchdowns. So I’ll just round that up to 20.
Beyond the stats, with more weapons and hopefully more trips to the red zone (Pittsburgh finished 16th in red zone drives per game a year ago) that’ll lend itself to more touchdowns. And hopefully a couple of long range players. It took them so long last season to throw a TD pass beyond goal-to-go situations. I don’t think that’s going to happen again. So I’m taking the over.
Ray Istenes: Who fills the 3rd RB slot on the inital 53 man roster? and will Heyward be the defacto FB? Who gets the last WR slot (assuming we keep six after DJ, Pickens, CAIII, Robinson, Boykin)?
Alex: It’s going to be a great battle. I like the rookies, Alfonzo Graham and Darius Hagans, but the spot is wide open. Heyward won’t be used just as a FB but he should align there from time to time and handle some of what Derek Watt was doing.
For the sixth WR spot, Hakeem Butler probably is the best bet. But there’s a lot of unknowns there so you let those guys fight in camp. There’s no guarantee they even end up keeping six. Five is possible, too.
stan: I was happy to see them sign Kwiatkowski because I don’t like our depth at LB. Do you think they’re done filling that position? Maybe Foster on the way?
Alex: I think they’re done. They’ve signed four veterans and have Mark Robinson back. At some point you gotta stop adding and just evaluate the group. If they struggle this summer, you can revisit in late August but right now, let the group be the group.
