For Canton, Cam Heyward is one of those borderline players. Someone who, if they retired today, probably would fall just shy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, his own gold jacket and bust. But he’s playing at least one more season, potentially more, and there’s still a path to football immortality.
Being elected to the Hall of Fame is subjective. It’s done by a panel of voters and there’s no black-and-white criteria for who gets in during a given year. But we can look at trends and history and what benchmarks Hall of Famers have reached to see how close Heyward is.
Pro Football Reference’s Hall of Fame Monitor is a handy tool to try and quantify a player’s chances of making it to Canton. According to PFR’s list, Cam Heyward has a 62.95 score among defensive tackles, 22nd all-time. He trails obvious names already in the Hall like Joe Greene (137.65), Warren Sapp (128.4), and the all-time leader, Aaron Donald (181.68), who is a first-ballot induction five years from now.
On paper, Heyward’s number feels far away. But there’s a common theme between Hall of Famers and their production. Hitting the 90-sack mark. According to their list among true interior defensive linemen, not 4-3 defensive ends, there are 12 with at least 90 sacks. Eight of them are in the Hall of Fame. Making that the number for Heyward, entering 2024 with 80.5 career sacks, to hit.
The eight in the Hall? Alan Page, John Randle, Randy White, Alex Karras, Warren Sapp, Bob Lilly, Steve McMichael, and Merlin Olsen.
What about the four exceptions? Donald is one and we already know he’s getting in the Hall in what should be unanimous fashion. The others are Jethro Pugh, Trevor Pryce, and Henry Thomas. Pugh never made a Pro Bowl, Thomas only made two, and Pryce’s career fizzled after a strong start, failing to make one in his final eight seasons. Heyward has as many Pro Bowls and more All-Pro teams as those three combined.
In history, no defensive tackle with Heyward’s current or potential resume of six Pro Bowls, three All-Pros and 90 sacks (if he gets there), has been exempt from Canton’s doors.
PFR also compares careers. To date, Heyward’s career most closely resembles those of Richard Seymour, Jared Allen, L.C. Greenwood, and La’Rai Glover. All borderline names. Seymour got in after several years of “almosts.” Greenwood is one of Canton’s biggest snubs while Allen has been a finalist unable to get over the hump. Heyward has to do more than his current resume to separate from that pack.
Netting another 9.5 sacks is realistic. Even if this is his final season, and Heyward doesn’t have such plans, he’s reached double-digit sacks in two of his last three seasons, only held back last year because of injury. He’s capable of putting up 9.5 this season, though he’ll be fighting history that suggests interior linemen regress after age 35. John Randle and Warren Sapp are two such examples.
The more Cam Heyward can do, the better. Another Pro Bowl and All-Pro season would be huge. Of d-tackles with at least seven Pro Bowls, only Donald and Geno Atkins aren’t in Canton. And of those with at least four first-team All-Pros, only Donald and Kevin Williams aren’t in. If Heyward could end his career with seven Pro Bowls, four All-Pro selections, and at least 90 sacks, his odds of making the Hall dramatically rise. But even the 90 sacks alone will give him a really good shot. Until then, he’ll be on the borderline.
