On paper, the offensive weapons that the Pittsburgh Steelers have at their disposal seem rather strong overall.
Wide receiver Diontae Johnson returns for his sixth season in the NFL and is aiming for a bounce back, while wide receiver George Pickens enters his second season on the cusp of stardom. Veteran wide receiver Allen Robinson II entered the fold this offseason, as did rookie tight end Darnell Washington, joining a loaded tight ends room with third-year pro Pat Freiermuth, veteran Zach Gentry and second-year versatile weapon Connor Heyward.
The backfield seems rather strong, too, with third-year running back Najee Harris and second-year UDFA gem Jaylen Warren joining second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, giving the Steelers an intriguing group of offensive weapons overall under third-year offensive coordinator Matt Canada.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell seems to feel pretty good about the Steelers’ offensive weapons group, ranking Pittsburgh 13th in the NFL Monday morning in his yearly piece ranking the offensive weapons around the league. Though Barnwell feels good about the group in general, the Steelers fell one spot from last year to this year.
His optimism, in large part, is due to the belief Barnwell has in Pickens, who had quite the rookie season for the Steelers.
“NFL Next Gen Stats uses a model to estimate a receiver’s chances of catching each pass thrown in his direction. As receivers get more opportunities, those expected catch rates tend to head toward a common ground. Thirty-four receivers ran 500 routes or more last season, and 33 of them had an expected catch rate between 55% and 72%. The significant outlier was George Pickens, whose expected catch rate was 51.4%. He responded by catching 61.9% of his passes,” Barnwell writes for ESPN.com Monday morning. “The list of players who have run 500 routes and posted a catch rate 10 percentage points better than expected in the Next Gen Stats era isn’t long: It’s Doug Baldwin, Stefon Diggs, Pierre Garcon, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett and Michael Thomas, who did it three times. Baldwin and Lockett played with prime Russell Wilson, who had model-breaking accuracy on deep throws. Thomas was with Drew Brees, who set NFL accuracy records. Pickens was playing with a rookie.
“I don’t think Pickens is going to keep running catch rates 10% over expectation, but he’s going to have more catchable passes on the whole in 2023. Decreasing the degree of difficulty could unlock a very special season. We might be talking about Pickens like he’s the best wide receiver in the 2022 class if he had better quarterback play last season.”
That is quite the group for Pickens to be in after just one NFL season.
Pickens took the world by storm in 2022, playing in all 17 games despite coming off the knee injury a year prior and catching 52 passes on 84 targets for 801 yards (15.4 YPR) and four TDs while chipping in three carries for 24 yards and a TD on the ground. Pickens proved to be a walking highlight reel, making absurd catches look routine as he would rise above defenders and contort his body to make acrobatic grabs in the red zone as well as down the field.
Still, one thing that we spoke heavily about Pickens throughout his rookie year and even during the pre-draft process was his need to become a more nuanced route runner, as he often relied on his sheer athletic talent to win combative catches rather than generating separation from coverage. Well, it appears as if Pickens has had the same thing said to him by the coaching staff following the 2022 campaign. Pickett is already noticing the work Pickens is putting in to refine his craft in the attempt to become a more well-rounded receiver in 2023.
Creating separation and having a fully-developed route tree remains a bit of a concern with Picken. But entering Year 2 as a contested-catch force and having that rapport with Pickett has the standout young receiver on the cusp of stardom. Pickens has the talent to become one of the premier playmakers in the league and has the tools to become a true No. 1 receiver for the Steelers in general. We will see if the Georgia product can make that leap and improve as a well-rounded receiver as well as if the opportunities will be there for him to post WR1 numbers this season.
Outside of Pickens, Barnwell has his eyes on Harris in the backfield as a guy who needs to take a step forward for this Steelers’ offensive weapons group to rise up the rankings.
Though Harris has rushed for 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, his production was rather inefficient, largely the byproduct of volume.
The biggest weakness in this group, beyond wide receiver depth, is the guy the Steelers took ahead of Pat Freiermuth in the first round of the 2021 draft. Harris has averaged 3.9 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per reception through his first two seasons,” Barnwell writes for ESPN.com. “Harris has stayed healthy and assumed a large workload, but among the 25 running backs with 300 or more carries over the past two seasons, Harris ranks last in yards per carry, rushing yards over expected, success rate and EPA per carry. The only back who gained fewer rushing yards over expected per carry is Alvin Kamara.”
Now, entering 2023, the Steelers seem to have the offensive line completely set and figured out. That should help Harris immensely, especially if he’s able to stay healthy and play like he did down the stretch in 2022.
Harris rushed for 677 of his 1,033 yards after the Week 9 bye on 164 carries, scoring six touchdowns in the process. Harris averaged 4.13 yards per carry after the bye week, helping the Steelers average 146 yards per game on the ground, good for seventh in the league. Prior to the bye week, the Steelers averaged 94.9 rush yards per game, which was 25th in the NFL.
Harris rushed for 1,200 yards as a rookie and then 1,034 last season, holding down the No. 1 job in Pittsburgh under head coach Mike Tomlin.
The two 1,000-yard seasons to open his career make him one of just 75 backs in NFL history to accomplish that feat. Yet concerns surround Harris moving forward due to the inefficiency of his production. Harris, it’s widely believed, is more of a product of volume, rather than skill when it comes to the raw stats.
Theoretically, that should change this season. The Steelers beefed up their offensive line with the signing of left guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency and the drafting of left tackle Broderick Jones in the first round, bolstering a rushing attack that finished No. 7 in the NFL in the second half of the 2022 season while leaning heavily on Harris.
If Harris is able to take a step forward in 2023, and Pickens is able to find another level overall while getting consistent play from the quarterback position with Pickett, like in the second half of the 2022 season, the Steelers’ offensive weapons group should be on the rise.
Outside of the Steelers at No. 13, the Baltimore Ravens came in at No. 15 in Barnwell’s rankings, while the Cleveland Browns came in at No. 12. Unsurprisingly the Cincinnati Bengals came in at No. 2.
