The Pittsburgh Steelers busy free agency included the signing of linebackers Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts. Today I wanted to provide some data context to what they provided last season as pass rushers following my coverage and run defense articles on them, along with Pittsburgh’s 2022 linebackers as well, and how they stacked up at the position to players with at least 250 pass snaps across the NFL last season.
Let’s get right to it, starting with 2022 pass snaps and pass rush wins versus blocking from PFF to get a gauge of the position comparatively.
All five players in our sights today land at the bottom left of the chart, highlighting below average opportunity and pass rush wins compared to the rest of the league. Roberts had the best singular result of the focused players, with a league average five pass rush wins (T-23rd) out of the 68 qualifying linebackers, on a well below average 344 pass snaps that was fourth through Steelers lenses and tied for 51st in the NFL. Sacks are obviously the ultimate goal, which Roberts encouragingly provided 4.5. He was also the only player in our sights that was above the trendline, meaning his pass rush wins were encouragingly above expectation given his opportunities.
Then we see Robert Spillane, who is now with the Raiders. He led the highlighted players with 391 pass snaps (44th) and had four pass rush wins which landed right on the trendline (T-29th). Myles Jack is still a free agent currently, and had a very similar 388 pass snaps (T-45th) along with a below average three pass rush wins (T-40th). Devin Bush is also no longer a Steeler (Seahawks), and had 356 pass snaps which ranked 49th, and two pass rush wins (T-48th).
It’s also important to note that no Pittsburgh linebacker recorded a sack last season, and hopefully Roberts can continue to provide that for the black and gold this year. Holcomb’s 2022 season was cut short by injury, playing in just seven games which landed him at the bottom left of the chart, with 281 pass snaps, just one pass rush win, and no sacks. Very important context as we continue to learn from the 2022 data.
Now let’s look at hurries and total pressures to see how the players fared effecting the quarterback:
Spillane led the focused players with eight hurries which tied for 18th in the NFL last season, and was just below the mean with nine total pressures (T-33rd). Roberts had the only other above average result, with 11 total pressures which tied for 26th in the league among linebackers, but a below average five hurries comparatively (T-32nd). If given substantial opportunities in 2023 with Pittsburgh, it would great to see these numbers go up while maintaining his ability last season to bring down the quarterback.
Then we have the highlighted players that were below the mean in both, starting with Bush who also had five hurries (T-32nd) and seven total pressures which tied for 42nd. Jack had four hurries (T-40th) and five total pressures which tied for 50th. In Holcomb’s lesser opportunities, he had two hurries (T-58th) and three total pressures, tying for 65th which was second least of the qualifying linebackers.
Next, I’d like to provide an interesting formula from PFF called Pass Rush Productivity (PRP), which is defined as the amount of pressure accumulated per pass rush snap, also giving weight towards sacks along with pass snaps. Here’s a similar view to the prior graph with the overall result along with true pass sets (excludes play action, screens, short dropbacks, and time to throw numbers under two seconds) eliminating most plays in which the pass rusher was less likely to produce:
Here we get a great sense of Roberts’ strong contributions as a pass rusher last season, highlighted by the second best PRP in all pass rush situations across the league, a valuable metric with everything it considers. This type of impact would of course be welcomed to a position room that lacked pass rush production overall in 2022. Roberts was also above average in true pass sets (T-13th), producing in expected situations comparatively as well. Bush fared better in this rate view than the total numbers, but we see most of his production came in true pass sets, with a strong seventh rank in this regard, as opposed to his slightly above average PRP (23rd).
The rest of the focused players landed below the mean in both data points. Spillane and Jack landed the most similar on the chart, with the former ranking 53rd in PBP with the latter tied for 56th. Their production particularly lacked in true pass sets though, ranking in the bottom six overall. This once again highlights the hope that Roberts’ recent production can carry over and fill some of that void from last season. Holcomb had the lowest PRP of the focused players that was fifth worst in the league, but did fare a bit better in expected true pass sets (52nd).
Here are total pass rush and true pass set win percentages:
Roberts led the focused players in each win rate and was the only one to land above the mean in both, ranking second once again in pass rush win percentage (20.8), one of only two linebackers impressively above 20%. He also accomplished this feat in true pass sets, encouragingly tying for tenth in the league. Jack had the only other above average result, which came in true pass sets (T-22nd) and was slightly below the mean with an 8.8% pass rush win rate that ranked 37th.
The remaining highlighted players were below the mean in both. Bush had a 7.7% pass rush win percentage that tied for 40th, and his true pass set win rate tying for 50th. Spillane had a stronger win rate in true pass sets comparatively (43rd), but was slightly lower with a 47th ranked 6.9 pass rush win percentage. Then we see Holcomb, who had the lowest results through Steelers lenses, with a low 3.8% pass rush win rate (60th) and tied for 59th in true pass sets.
To close, here are PFF grades for the position group in the same situations (overall/true pass sets):
In terms of overall PFF pass rush grade, Roberts topped the position at 90.1 and was the only linebacker in the entire NFL to eclipse a 90+ grade in 2022. As highlighted through the article, his true pass set results were a bit lower, and ended up below average in that overall grade (64.1) which ranked a much lower 43rd. Bush had the 11th ranked true pass set grade (77.0) and had a slightly above the mean 66.9 pass rush grade that ranked 26th at the position. Jack was close behind in true pass sets (75.1) which ranked 13th, but had a below the mean 63.7 pass rush grade that landed 42nd. The remaining players we’re focused on landed below average in both grades. Spillane noticeably fared better of the two though, with a 59.3 true pass set grade that ranked 56th, and a 54.5 pass rush grade that landed 60th.
At the extreme lower left is Holcomb, whose 48.2 true pass set grade was third lowest, and his 45.2 pass rush grade ranked dead last in the entire NFL. So, in terms of PFF pass rush grade, the Steelers signed the top and the lowest ranked linebackers in PFF pass rush grade (regardless of snaps) from the 2022 season.
For the 2023 linebackers overall, Roberts had top ranks in several aspects: pass rush grade (first), second in pass rush win rate and PRP, and top 15 in true pass set win rate and true pass set PRP. He was also above average in total pressures (slightly) and was right at the league mean in pass rush wins. The aspects Roberts was below average in included pass snaps, hurries, and true pass set grade. Very intrigued with how he fared as a pass rusher overall last season, and also provided some good things as a run defender, but coverage was definitely a weak point last season.
Pass rushing is not the first aspect of the game when people discuss Holcomb, but I did not expect him to be well below average through the entirety of today’s study. He does have coverage ability, but also left some to be desired in 2022, and in terms of the data actually fared best in the run defense study. Pairing this with Holcomb coming off surgery highlights some reasons why he was available in free agency, and the risk Pittsburgh took in hopes he can have a healthy and more successful 2023, similar to earlier in his career (which I will study soon). Here’s to hoping the revamped linebacker room fares well this season, and can’t wait to see how it all shakes out.
What are your thoughts on the data and the 2023 outlook at the position? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
