The final numbers from the rookie season of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett might not have been all that impressive overall (2,404 passing yards, seven touchdowns, nine interceptions), but now that he has the experience under his belt and has a full offseason as the unquestioned starting quarterback in the Black and Gold, a potential significant second year jump could be on the way for the former Pitt star.
Expectations ahead of his second season are high for Pickett, especially after the way he closed the season.
Pickett was rather impressive in the second half of the year, cutting way down on the turnovers and general mistakes a young quarterback makes. He put together some strong performances overall in leading the Steelers to a 6-2 record when he was on the field.
Pittsburgh rebounded from a disastrous 2-6 start to finish 9-8, with a handful of wins in the second half of the season coming due to Pickett leading fourth quarter comebacks (Saints and Colts wins) and game-winning drives (Raiders, Ravens). He showed he has that “it” factor in big moments. When the lights get bright and the moment gets tight, he simply didn’t shrink, instead rising to the occasion.
That was big for a young quarterback to go through and grow from. That has him set up for success moving forward and has raised the bar on expectations as well.
Now, entering Year 2, all eyes are on Pickett to see if he can take that leap and help lead the Steelers back into legitimate contention once again.
ESPN’s Mike Clay, who projected stats for every player across the NFL ahead of the 2023 season, sees a strong second year ahead for Pickett. Knowing what Clay is projecting, I decided to continue taking a look at the over/under projections like we’ve done for other positions like running back, wide receiver and tight end so far this offseason.
Let’s take a look.
KENNY PICKETT — 2023 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 320-of-497 passing, 3,417 yards, 21 touchdowns, 12 interceptions; 59 carries, 265 yards, three touchdowns
With the Steelers very clearly leaning into the bully ball mentality in 2023 and beyond, it’s a bit of a surprise to see Pickett projected for 497 passing attempts in 2023, up from the 389 attempts he had last season over 13 games. Playing two more games — and presumably not leaving two other games due to injury — Pickett is project to throw an additional 108 passes in 2023. Based on Clay’s projections, with Pickett playing 15 total games in 2023, Pickett is set to average just over 33 passes per game, which is likely too high for how the Steelers want to play football in 2023.
Along with the high number of attempts, Pickett is projected to put up 3,417 passing yards in 2023, which averages out to about 228 yards per game. Therefore, Pickett’s average stats line each week — again, based on the projections — would be 21-of-33 for 228 yards. Not great overall, but again, that’s the average.
Good news is, Clay projects Pickett to triple is touchdown output through the air from his rookie season to Year 2 as he’s projected for 21 touchdown passes in 2023 to go along with just 12 interceptions. Add in the three rushing touchdowns and it would be a solid second season overall for Pickett.
That said, the passing numbers feel a bit high on the projection side from Clay, especially the attempts per game. While the Steelers are certainly aiming for more explosive plays in 2023, it’s hard to imagine Pickett going over 3,500 passing yards, though his weekly average numbers should be slightly higher as I do believe that the attempts and completions won’t be high.
Pittsburgh is going to run the football over and over and over again in 2023. That much is clear. Therefore, even with the added weapons and protection for Pickett, I think these projections are a bit high, so I’m going under.
Verdict: Under
MITCH TRUBISKY — 2023 PROJECTION FROM ESPN: 45-of-70 passing, 443 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions; seven carries, 27 yards
After opening the 2022 season as the starter and having some ups and downs, Mitch Trubisky is firmly entrenched as the backup in Pittsburgh, especially after his extension he just signed with the Steelers. In a backup role, numbers won’t be great for Trubisky unless he’s put into the lineup due to injury.
In Clay’s projections, he has Trubisky playing in just two games, completing 45-of-70 passes for 443 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Modest numbers for a backup in a run-heavy approach. Those numbers are very similar to the type of style he played in the Week 14 win on the road against the Carolina Panthers last season as the Steelers ran the football at will, played suffocating defense and won a low-scoring game.
Having that type of experience at the backup position his huge for Pittsburgh. That said, the less Trubisky has to see the field in 2023, the better, meaning Pickett is healthy and has taken that second year jump everyone is projecting him to take.
Verdict: Push
