Entering his third season in the NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris has a chance to accomplish something only a handful of running backs have done in league history: rush for 1,000 yards in each of their first three seasons.
Harris rushed for 1,200 yards as a rookie and then 1,034 last season, holding down the No. 1 job in Pittsburgh under head coach Mike Tomlin.
The two 1,000-yard seasons to open his career make him one of just 75 backs in NFL history to accomplish that feat, yet concerns surround Harris moving forward due to the inefficiency of his production. Harris, it’s widely believed, is more of a product of volume, rather than skill when it comes to the raw stats.
Theoretically, that should change this season. The Steelers beefed up their offensive line with the signing of left guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency and the drafting of left tackle Broderick Jones in the first round, bolstering a rushing attack that finished No. 7 in the NFL in the second half of the 2022 season while leaning heavily on Harris.
For ESPN’s Mike Clay, in his 2023 projections for ESPN.com, that inefficiency doesn’t change though as Clay has Harris cracking 1,000 yards again but remaining rather inefficient as far as yards per carry.
Let’s take a look at Clay’s projections for the Steelers’ running backs in 2023 and determine if the players will go over or under their current projections.
Najee Harris — 2023 Projection From ESPN: 255 carries, 1,017 rushing yards, six TDs; 43 receptions, 273 yards, two TDs
As you can see, those projections for Harris aren’t very good overall. The 1,017 rushing yards on 255 carries equals out to 3.98 yards per carry, which is on par with his career average of 3.9. But after the improvements the Steelers made on the offensive line this offseason and the level of play they closed the second half of the 2022 season at in the run game, these projections feel far too low.
Harris is never going to be that home run hitter who rips off consistent splash runs, but he’s much more than a 3.98 YPC running back. I think that will show this season as the Steelers very clearly lean heavily into the ground-and-pound attack while aiming to play bully ball.
In the second half of the season, Harris had five games with 4.5 or more yards per carry, including three of 5.0 or more. The rushing attack really took over in the second half of the season, and Harris looked like the first-round back he was expected to be. Pittsburgh only got better around him, so it’s an easy choice for me when it comes to Clay’s projection for the 2023 season.
Verdict: Over
Jaylen Warren — 2023 Projection from ESPN: 95 carries, 419 yards, three TDs: 26 receptions, 188 yards, one TD
After bursting onto the scene as an undrafted free agent out of Oklahoma State, Warren had a rather impressive rookie season in Pittsburgh. He rushed for 379 yards and a touchdown on 77 carries, adding another 28 catches for 214 yards after working his way into the No. 2 role behind Harris.
This season, Clay projects Warren to carry the football 95 times for 419 yards and three touchdowns, adding another 26 receptions for 188 yards and a touchdown. Those projections see Warren adding another 18 carries while gaining another 40 yards to his totals from last season, finding the end zone three more times on the ground.
Following his development as the No. 2 in Pittsburgh last season, it’s reasonable to expect Warren to have increased production in Year Two in the NFL. Even with the Steelers leaning heavily into a power rushing attack, 95 carries for Warren feels a bit high while the 4.41 yards per carry average feels a bit low for Warren, considering he averaged 4.9 last season.
He should have a larger role in Pittsburgh after a strong rookie season, but I’d expect more catches in this projection along with less rushes for the backup running back.
Verdict: Under
Anthony McFarland Jr. — 2023 Projection from ESPN: 34 carries, 147 yards, one TD; six receptions, 43 yards
The last time Anthony McFarland Jr. had 30+ carries in a season was his rookie year. Since then, McFarland has recorded just nine total carries the last two seasons, including six last season.
While he appears in line for the No. 3 role in Pittsburgh this season based on the lack of depth at the position, projecting him to set a career high in carries and yards is a massive stretch from Clay, along with projecting him to score his first career touchdown in the NFL as a third-string running back.
McFarland had a good showing in the second half of the 2022 season in the Monday Night Football win against the Colts, but it’s a massive projection from Clay for a guy who might not even make the team when it’s all said and done.
Verdict: Under
Jason Huntley — 2023 Projection from ESPN: nine carries, 37 yards; two receptions, 14 yards
Coming over from Philadelphia last season and spending the year on the practice squad, Huntley is an intriguing No. 4 RB right now and could potentially work his way into the No. 3 role if he can beat out McFarland. In two seasons with the Eagles, Huntley carried the ball 18 times for 70 yards, adding one reception in six games.
Experience overall is limited, as is the upside, but assistant GM Andy Weidl played a key role in bringing him over from the Eagles to the Steelers’ practice squad. He could be another great story from a development standpoint at the position for Pittsburgh.
Clay projects the fifth-round pick in 2020 by the Detroit Lions to carry the ball nine times for 37 yards in 2023, adding another two receptions for 14 yards. If the New Mexico State product is the No. 4 running back in Pittsburgh, he won’t get much work offensively even if he gets a hat on game days.
But he’s certainly a player to watch in training camp and the preseason.
Verdict: Under
