Bringing back a series we’ve done throughout the rest of the offseason. I promise we’re not going all Embrace Debate on you, but Joe Cammarota and I have teamed up to debate Steelers-related topics we have genuine, good-faith disagreement over. Let us know who made the better argument and what side of the debate you come in on in the comments below.
Today’s topic is…
WILL KENNY PICKETT THROW FOR MORE THAN 20TDS IN 2023?
JONATHAN – YES, HE WILL
Last season, Kenny Pickett got thrown into the fire. He was thrust into action at halftime in Week 4 against the New York Jets after Mitch Trubisky notably struggled to start the game, as well as play consistent, winning football the first three weeks of the season. Pickett expectingly struggled during his first NFL action, and matters didn’t get any better when his first career NFL start came on the road against a vaunted Buffalo Bills defense.
Pickett’s first regular season action to start his new NFL career came against the Bills, Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins, and Philadelphia Eagles. That’s a buzzsaw schedule for any NFL QB, let alone a rookie that was the team’s third string QB to start out training camp and had to try and operate a Matt Canada-run offense where the opposing defense knew what Pittsburgh was running before they even snapped the ball.
For a lack of a better term, Kenny Pickett had one arm tied behind his back from the start, and notably struggled throwing more INTs (nine) than TDs (seven) in his first season of play. However, Pickett is now the unquestioned starter heading into the 2023 season and the Steelers have done everything they can to try and build up the offense around him to support a second-year leap. They went out and acquired Allen Robinson II as well as drafted Darnell Washington to add more weapons to the passing game. They signed OL Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig while also investing their first-round pick in OT Broderick Jones to help build up the offensive line to protect Pickett and give him more time in the pocket.
Many of Pickett’s teammates have raved this offseason about Pickett’s leadership and the “night and day” difference from last season getting his feet wet as a rookie to this season, having a full year under his belt and being 100% focused on football rather than the pre-draft process and picking up everything on the fly. Even HC Mike Tomlin said this offseason that he expects Pickett to kill it in 2023, saying that he has the experience now as well as the intangibles to get the job done.
While Pittsburgh may try and establish the run more in 2023, there is no doubt that this team’s passing game will improve this season after ranking dead last in the league with 12 TD passes a season ago. Barring injury, Pickett should be the team’s starter for all 17 games and the receiving core including Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson II, Calvin Austin III, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, Connor Heyward, and Najee Harris give Pickett an arsenal of weapons at his disposal. Factor in the game slowing down for him in Year Two as well as an improved OL blocking in front of him, Pickett should have no problem reaching the 20 TD mark this season.
JOE – NO, HE WON’T
While I truly believe Kenny Pickett will become a very good quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers, I am not so sure this season is the year he cracks 20 passing touchdowns. It has less to do with his ability and more to do with the way the Steelers offense has been set up this year. Pittsburgh seems determined to control the clock and pound the rock all the time, harkening back to the early career Ben Roethlisberger teams.
Although 2005 and 2023 are totally different eras, Roethlisberger didn’t crack 20 touchdowns in his second season (albeit there were injuries) and running a very similar type of offense which focuses on the run game will make it difficult for Pickett to make a 13 touchdown jump.
In addition to the type of offense the Steelers run, it also took Pickett a while to take a jump in play at Pitt. Pickett didn’t surpass 20 touchdowns in college until his fifth season. I think Pickett is much more refined now and a good player, but I do think it may take two to three seasons before he dominates in the NFL and can really put up some gaudy numbers. Pickett will improve this season but I also think he will still be adjusting and learning in 2023.
Last season the Steelers played much better when Pickett only threw the ball 25-30 times and let the run game carry the team. I don’t think Pickett will magically be able to throw it 40 times and carry the Steelers to wins this year. I expect that trend of trying to keep Pickett under 30 passes to continue this season as Pickett is still adjusting to the league. Head coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t want to make Pickett have to shoulder the load on offense. Pickett has shown that when the team needs him late in the game he can come through, but he has also not shown that he can put up a lot of points on the board consistently. Pickett and the Steelers only crossed the 30-point mark once last season in a loss. Pickett also never had a multi-touchdown game last season. Even if he plays all 17 games this year, if he doesn’t have any this season he won’t surpass 20 touchdowns.
In defense of Pickett real quick we do have to take into consideration the play calling here. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada has not shown the ability to consistently draw up good plays, which I think will hinder the offense. The Steelers struggled mightily in the red zone last season and that had a lot to do with both play calling and a rookie quarterback. While the game may move faster for Pickett this season and he improves in the red zone, the issue is the same offensive coordinator is calling the plays when they get there. Is Canada really going to improve that much this season?
We also have to talk about injuries. Picket suffered two concussions last season which kept him out of one game and knocked him out of another. Hopefully, Pickett never gets another concussion, and I am not going to predict him to get a concussion either, but I don’t think it would be a very hot take to say he might miss a game or two because of an injury this season. Football is a violent sport and people get hurt and it can happen to Pickett.
Pickett will be the Steelers franchise quarterback, and a damn good one, but this isn’t the season he throws for 20+ touchdowns.
