Antonio Brown is yet again in the news for all the wrong reasons, his Albany Empire team crumbling since essentially he became controlling owner of the team. The franchise has gone from back-to-back title winners in 2021 and 2022 to being kicked out of the National Arena League in 2023 with an uncertain and bleak future.
In a few years, there will be another talking point about Brown.
Should he be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
While you might be quick to say “heck no,” his on-field resume has him as a slam-dunk candidate. If you need a refresher:
– 7-time Pro Bowler
– 4-time All-Pro
– Led NFL in yards twice, receptions twice, and touchdowns once
– Member of 2010s Hall of Fame Team
– Over playing career, led NFL in receptions, second in yards, and third in touchdowns
It’s easy to forget but before Brown blew up and forced his way out of Pittsburgh, he was on his way to Canton, not Oakland. Which leads to an interesting discussion about his Hall of Fame odds. Clark Judge is one of the leading men when it comes to all things HOF-related and on Tuesday, he posted an article discussing Brown’s candidacy. He spoke with selectors and historians to get their perspective on Brown’s resume. The good, bad, and ugly, and there’s plenty of all three.
The overall conclusion was maybe but not first ballot, as Judge wrote:
“Results were mixed, with most saying they were ‘open’ to his candidacy. But all nixed the first-ballot idea, including some who either leaned against his election or were steadfastly against it.”
Assuming Brown doesn’t play in the NFL again, a safe bet, he’ll first be eligible for Canton in 2027. That’s the same year Ben Roethlisberger will also be eligible and he figures to be the only first-ballot Steeler inducted that year.
If Brown isn’t first ballot, the question becomes how much time has to pass before voters become open to seriously considering him to be part of football immortality. While the on-field performance was historically good, Brown has destroyed his reputation with his off-field antics and legal issues, making football fans forget about how incredible of a player he was.
Judge spoke with historian John Turney, not a voter but a trustworthy source of the Hall of Fame process. He said Brown’s issue isn’t just off field in itself but the lack of sustained production.
“He was on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory, but he did not sustain it. He derailed it. His peak was high enough, but certain milestones within his reach — e.g., 1,000 catches, 100 touchdown receptions, etc. — won’t be acheived [sic] … not because of injuries but due to his own decisions, and that will probably cost him the Hall of Fame.”
Brown’s prime spanned six core years, 2013 to 2018 when he dominated the NFL. Given the production he had in his career before then and the lack of longevity argument carries a little less weight. While he didn’t play in the NFL for as long as Jerry Rice or other members of the Hall, this isn’t a Terrell Davis situation of three really good years before falling off. Of course, had Brown not caused an early end to his career, his aggregate numbers would’ve been among the best of all-time, not just outstanding for his era. And, of course, Davis and other less-tenured players ended up in the Hall, so it isn’t the best argument against him.
According to Pro Football Reference’s Hall of Fame Monitor, which quantifies a player’s career relative to Canton-inducted members, Brown has a score of 104.48. The average for a Hall of Famer is 104, a number heavily skewed by Jerry Rice’s ridiculous 311.99, but Brown still sits slightly above the average.
Brown’s on-field accomplishments really can’t be debated. From that viewpoint alone, he was a Hall of Fame player. Everything else is the problem. And based on this snippet from behind the Hall of Fame curtain, it sounds like Brown will at best have an extended wait to get into Canton, if he ever does at all.
