Continuing the series, I wanted to circle back to the edge rusher position. Pittsburgh selected Nick Herbig at pick 132 in the fourth round. In the pre-draft process, there was much conversation on Herbig being projected to move to the inside linebacker position in the NFL, but general manager Omar Khan is leaving the door open for him to play both, at least initially. With all this in mind, and considering Herbig played the vast majority of his snaps on the edge for Wisconsin in 2022, this study will look at the position last season using Sports Info Solutions (SIS). Today I’ll focus on players that heard their names called in the draft, also including other players who were debatable edge/linebacker “tweeners”, and two players were excluded due to SIS not tracking smaller schools. The goal is to see how Herbig stacked up among his peers as a run defender following my similar pass rush study.
First, let’s look at run snaps along with their total snaps to get a gauge of the players’ opportunities, and how often they were able to stay on the field for their squads last season:
Herbig landed towards the mean of the 33 qualifying players. He had a slightly above-average 235 rush snaps (T-16th) and was just below the mean with 503 total snaps (21st). Herbig did miss one game last season with a knee injury but returned the following week. Important to factor in as we dive deeper.
Next, let’s look at a very important aspect of being a quality run defender, tackling. The chart below looks at the players’ tackles per game and average tackle depth, with the latter suggesting quality play up front and attacking the line of scrimmage:
Here we see Herbig was above the mean among drafted edge rushers, with 4.7 tackles per game which ranked ninth, along with a -0.5 average tackle depth that fared even better at sixth. He was one of only eight edge rushers to have an average tackle depth behind the line, highlighted by 16 tackles for loss last year, and one of two to accomplish this impressive feat with at least four tackles per game. While the recent signing of veteran edge rusher Markus Golden will likely limit Herbig’s opportunities on defense out of the gate, but this is an encouraging skill he provided Wisconsin that will be interesting to see if it translates. Of course, the NFL is a different animal, and his size for the edge position perhaps makes it less likely in the league.
This next view attempts to weigh positive and negative plays, using broken and missed tackle rates (negative plays) along with Sports Info Solutions’ positive play % which is the rate of run plays with the player on the field that resulted in positive expected points added (EPA), with lower percentages being the best:
Here we see Herbig had a strong positive rate when on the field for run plays for the Badgers defense in 2022, coming in at 32.8% which ranked fourth best. This highlights some of his positive contributions including the previous chart, but an element he was below average in was unfortunately broken/missed tackle percentage (11.9%). He ranked 20th in this regard, charted for five missed tackles and two broken tackles by SIS. This is a concerning element anticipating his run defense at the NFL level, with the level of competition of course much stronger, and will definitely be high on my radar as he begins his journey in the black and gold.
To close, here is a more total view of the players in the run game using points saved per play (The total of a player’s EPA responsibility on run plays using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play [with positive numbers being good]. Totals are scaled up to map to the average points scored or allowed on a team level, with the player’s snap count determining how much to adjust. For run defense, that includes accounting for defenders in the box, blown blocks forced, broken tackles, turnovers, and turnover returns.) and points above average per play (using the same Total Points system and putting a number to their value above an average level player):
When taking more things into account, we see that Herbig lands below the mean in both data points as a run defender. He tied for 20th in points saved per play, while landing 21st in points above average per play. He did have two forced fumbles last season, but no recoveries and below-average results in his impact against the run overall. So, Herbig was above average in tackles per game, average tackle depth, positive rate, and slightly above the mean in rush snaps. He was slightly below average in this year’s draft class in total snaps, while landing below the mean in the following important metrics in the run game: broken/missed tackle percentage, points saved per play, and points above average per play. As expected, Herbig had a much better 2022 season as a pass rusher, and as a run defender made some plays behind the line of scrimmage, but in totality raised some concerns as we anticipate what he could be on the edge in run defense. I do think he could find more success if he moves to inside linebacker, with defensive linemen likely keeping him more free to utilize his instincts at the line of scrimmage. One thing’s for sure, I can’t wait to see how it pans out for Herbig this year and beyond.
Throughout the rest of the offseason, I will dive deeper into the data as we continue to learn about the newest Pittsburgh Steelers. How do you think Herbig will fare his rookie year? Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
