During the thick of the NFL offseason, fans from every team find themselves thinking “what if” regarding their favorite players as well as the outlook for their favorite teams prior to the start of a new season.
Optimism runs high as it’s a new year when anything can happen, making the game of projection and predicting stats and superlatives a big-time filler before the bullets start flying when the regular season kicks off.
The QB position is one that often captures the headlines, and Alex Kay of Bleacher Report recently posted his stat predictions for every starting QB in 2023. For Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett, Kay had him completing 65% of his passed for 3,681 yards and 22 TDs with 12 INTs while rushing for 248 rushing yards and four TDs on the ground.
“The Pittsburgh Steelers were the only team to select a quarterback in the first two rounds of the 2022 draft, but they seem to have found a gem in Kenny Pickett,” Kay wrote. “Pickett has already proved he can be a quality game manager at worst, but he has the potential to take a massive leap in his sophomore season. With a full offseason to prepare as the locked-in QB1, a reinforced offensive line and a solid crop of pass-catchers surrounding him, this 24-year-old could be one of the league’s breakout stars in 2023.”
At first glance, these numbers represent a notable step forward compared to the stats he posted as a rookie last season. In 13 games (12 starts) in 2022, Pickett completed 63% of his passes for 2,404 yards and seven TDs with nine INTs while rushing for 237 yards and three TDs. However, if you extrapolate those numbers to a 17-game season (should he not miss time due to injury), Pickett would sit at nearly 3,400 passing yards and nine passing TDs along with 335 rushing yards.
While Kay’s stat predictions for Pickett would be a step forward compared to what he posted last year, they come off as a tad underwhelming should he play a full 17 games in 2023. Pickett would average 216 passing yards and 1.3 TDs per game, which are decent game manager numbers at the position, but not numbers you would like to see from your franchise QB. Even though Pittsburgh intends to be more run-heavy this season, one would hope that Pickett would take more of a step forward in Year Two given the surplus of weapons at his disposal.
Should Pickett be able to play a full 17-game season in 2023, I don’t think it would be unreasonable to project him averaging close to 230 passing yards a game, giving him just over 3,900 on the year. Throw in some more carries and yards as well, surpassing 4,000 yards of total yards should be in the cards for Pickett. Obviously, Matt Canada’s offense will be a big factor pertaining to his success on the football field, but if Pickett is to be this team’s franchise QB, he should be able to take a notable leap forward in his second season like Trevor Lawrence did last season with the Jaguars.
