Pavelle: CBs And Cover-Safeties In The 2023 NFL Draft

It’s time to look at the Cornerbacks now that free agency has come and gone. It’s a lot more involved than people seem to think. Contrary to popular belief, the Steelers do not have a desperate need for an outside Corner. Indeed, one can make a stronger argument for a hole at the Nickel DB spot than outside. It’s just that this year’s CB class is particularly strong, with clusters of talent that seem to coincide with Pittsburgh’s selections. So improving the position makes sense, right? Especially since there is exactly one (1) designated CB under contract for 2024, that being Patrick Peterson.

Here’s my outline for what you’re about to read:

1. First, some key definitions to make sure we’re all using the same words in the same ways.
2. A look at the current roster, taking care to note which players are suitable for outside/boundary duty, who can play in the slot, and who can do both.
3. Analysis of how I see the team wants and needs in light of the roster.
4. A plea for help on how modern coverage schemes are changing the sort of assets and skills we need to look for and avoid.
5. A list of the prospects broken down by boundary-capable, slot-capable, and multi-faceted talents.
6. An excerpted big board with the relevant prospect descriptions.
7. A conclusion section to wrap things up.

Skip ahead as ye desire.

KEY DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS

“SHUTDOWN CB” a/k/a “ISLAND CB” – One of those top 5-7 players in the league who can reliably handle man-on-man coverage duty against the opponent’s star receiver. No one can reasonably expect a true Shutdown/Island CB to fall out of the top 10 in any draft, so if there is one in this class you may as well cross the name off as a possibility. Ain’t Gonna Happen.

“CB1” – One of the top 20-25 CBs in the league, who can reliably handle any job he’s asked to do so long as there is occasional Safety help against the elite WRs like Ja’Marr Chase. Later career Joe Haden is a perfect example. CBs are expected to do well against any type of receiver too, from small-and-shifty, to ultra-speedy, to tall-and-tough. Everyone is better against one more than the others, but a proper CB1 isn’t weak against any. NOTE: There are never enough CB1s to go around, which is why I’m using a number less than 32 for the total. All Shutdown CBs are also CB1s. They’re just especially good ones.

“CB2” – Someone in the top 25-65 Corners of the NFL. CB2s do their assigned job in a reliable manner, but have enough shortcomings to require help against a mismatch WR, or in a particular defensive scheme that doesn’t suit his talents. CB2s could also be called nice, solid starters whose main failure is the lack of being special. Levi Wallace is a very good example. Pretty much every team has at least one, and they are highly valued.

“OUTSIDE CB” a/k/a “BOUNDARY CB” – The Corner who plays most of his snaps between the hashmarks and the sideline. The job description starts with, “Don’t Get Beat Deep!”, but also includes “don’t allow chain moving outs and curls,” “don’t lose control on crossing routes and slants if that’s your assignment,” “intercept the ball on bad throws or bad routes,” “understand and do your job when asked to play in zone,” and “at least slow the RB down if he gets outside the first level containment.” All these jobs are vital; it’s just that only the first one gets the capital letters and exclamation mark. The skill set includes route recognition, press-man coverage, off-man coverage, and how to crowd WRs into the sideline. The assets to look for include superior height, weight, speed, arm length, a good backpedal, smooth hips to transition from backpedal to running downfield with the WR and click-and-close (sudden burst forward from zone coverage or in run support). The list is not exclusive, of course, and every player has stronger areas, weaker areas, and areas where some special level of skill or talent makes up for a lack of native talent or skill.

“SLOT CB” – WRs lined up in the slot do not need to be on the line of scrimmage, which means it is exceptionally hard to deliver a good jam. They don’t have to worry about the sideline, which means they can end up darting in any of three directions (right, left, and forward). Slot Corners therefore need to have exceptional change of direction talent (COD), and also an extremely high football IQ. The latter comes from both the special need to accurately predict what a given WR/QB/OC combination is likely to call in particular situations, and because their inside position involves more communication than you need from Outside CBs.

“NICKEL DB” – A hybrid position that combine the abilities of a Slot CB with the tackling and blitzing skills of a Safety. “Nickel” refers to the formation with five defensive backs rather than four, which has become the standard defense against 11 personnel offenses (1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WRs). Great Nickel DBs like Polamalu rotate into a Safety or CB position when the team isn’t in one of the several Nickel packages. It takes at least two and often three sub-package specialists to replace a single great Nickel DB, which is done by rotating those specialists on and off the field as appropriate for the down, distance, and opponent.

“SUB-PACKAGE DB” and “STARTER”  – A distinction that comes down to snap counts over the course of a year. Starters will get 800+ snaps in a season if they can stay healthy, with really good starters getting up into the 900s. Sub-package DBs rotate off the field so often that they cannot reach that threshold, and thereby offer less value to the team as a whole. Ordinary Nickel DBs are sub-package guys, while exceptional Nickel DBs can count as starters. Troy was obviously a great Nickel DB (and thus a starter), while Mike Hilton was an excellent Nickel DB who hovered right near the boundary line.

“ZONE-ONLY CB” – A Corner whose set of skills and talents makes him good in particular types of coverage and weak in others. My guy Ross Cockrell was a perfect example of a Zone-only CB. His combination of brains, burst, and savvy made him an easy CB2 and arguably a CB1 so long as his team gave him a region to cover rather than needing to trail someone all over the field. He became a liability when the Steelers shifted over to using more man coverage. Note that it’s possible to have a Man-Only CB too, but that is much less of a liability because a defense can almost always accommodate a CB who can succeed in Cat Coverage duties (“You cover that cat over there, and we’ll take care of the rest”). The cartoon version of Ike Taylor could be accused of being a man-only stereotype, though I couldn’t say for certain how true that was for the actual player.

“SEATTLE-TYPE CB” – The famous Legion of Boom defenses in the early 2010s were built on a brilliant version of Cover-3 that allowed the team to use long, tall, athletic Corners who suffered from COD limitations. That is a pretty common problem, since COD ability tends to go down as a man gets taller. The details don’t matter. The point is that this innovation gave Seattle (and its imitators) an advantage comparable to the old stereotype of the Steelers’ 3-4 having access to elite pass rushers that other teams viewed as too small. The formation has fallen out of fashion, but the term remains useful as a way to describe prospects with elite height/weight/speed athletic profiles but who are too tight in the hips to handle all the duties a mixed-formation secondary (like Pittsburgh’s) will demand.

“MAN MATCH” and “ZONE MATCH” – These are the more cutting-edge approaches in secondary play, which also allow for certain limitations when it comes to COD talent. I do not understand the specifics well enough to describe them. Suffice it to say, Pittsburgh has been an exceptionally man-heavy team in recent years, and thus Seattle-type CBs continue to be poor fits for what Tomlin and Co. would prefer to field.

THE CURRENT ROSTER

• CB Patrick Peterson. 6’0¼”, 198 lbs. with 32” arms and 9¼” hands. Turns 33 in July. A future HOF’er in his twilight years. Outside CB who knows every trick in the book and can be relied on to be a coach on the field for all the developing prospects. Signed on a two-year deal for 2023 and 2024. NOTE: Peterson is the only Corner who is under contract for 2024 in addition to 2023.
• CB Levi Wallace. 6’0¼”, 179 lbs. with 32¾” arms and 9⅜” hands. Turns 28 in June. 2018 Buffalo UDFA who made good, and then signed a 2-year, $8 Million contract to play for Pittsburgh in 2022 and 2023. Wallace is emphatically not a miracle athlete (bottom 25th percentile), but has made a very successful CB2 career out of being the sort of tough, physical, in your face, jam-at-the-line player who opposing WR’s flat out hate. They know they can beat the SOB, and should beat him according to every measurable characteristic, but somehow it just never happens. A junkyard dog meaner than Leroy Brown. On the field, that is. He’s supposed to be a perfectly fine human being in other situations.
• CB Ahkello Witherspoon. 6’2¾”, 195 lbs. with 33” arms and 9⅞” hands. Turned 27 earlier in March. A top 2% athlete, Witherspoon was the 49ers’ Round 3 pick in 2017, and made his way to Pittsburgh in 2021. He’s been a tremendous cover-corner throughout his career, but only when healthy, which is rare. He’s been bedeviled by so many injuries that it’s fair to call him fragile. He looked like the team’s best Corner in 2021, and then hurt his hamstring in September of last year (week 3). After that he looked really bad in the few instances he could make it onto the field. It should come as no surprise that he is terrible in run support.
• CB James Pierre. 6’0”, 185 lbs. with 31¼” arms and 8½” hands. Turns 27 in September. The 2020 UDFA who has been almost… there… throughout his rookie deal, with occasional starts in which he flashed and others where he looked terrible. He’s teased and tantalized us with maybe this will be his year… for the past few seasons and is back after signing a one-year contract earlier this month.
• CB Madre Harper. 6’2”, 196 lbs. with extremely long 33-34” arms. Turns 26 in October. A 2020 UDFA for the Raiders, he bounced over to the Giants, back to the Raiders, then to the Panthers for two years, and then to Pittsburgh in January. A top 1% athlete on the measurables, he’s been trying to learn professional-level technique. Let’s say he’s on the James Pierre Track but a little behind, and probably has less COD talent.
• CB Chris Wilcox. 6’1⅝”, 195 lbs. with 31⅝” arms and 9⅞” hands. Turns 26 in October. Picked by Tampa Bay in Round 7 of the 2021 draft, he bounced to the Colts, then the Cardinals, and then to Pittsburgh in 2023. Legit 4.3-something speed (4.31 at his Pro Day) but held back by poor COD talent.
• Nickel CB Arthur Maulet. 5’10”, 190 lbs. with 31¼”arms and 9¾” hands. Turns 30 in July. 2017 UDFA who joined Pittsburgh in 2021.
• Nickel CB Duke Dawson. 5’10⅝”, 198 lbs. with 31½” arms and 9” hands. Turns 28 in October. A Round 2 New England pick in 2018, selected to be a slot/Nickel CB. A promising prospect who lost his rookie year to hamstring problems. Traded to Denver in 2019 and sat. Lost 2020 to an ACL. Injured again in 2021, and then moved to the practice squad. Moved to the Panthers, where he was injured in 2022 and then waived. Spent the 2022 season on Pittsburgh’s practice squad. One senses a pattern.

In case you missed the note, be aware that Patrick Peterson is the only Cornerback under contract for 2024 in addition to 2023.

• SAF Minkah Fitzpatrick. He’s great at the job but what a waste!
• SAF Damontae Kazee. He can play Nickel DB, but it isn’t his strength, and who would be the #2 Safety?
• Nickel SAF Tre Norwood. 5’11⅝”, with 29⅜” arms and 9⅜” hands. Turns 24 in April. Pittsburgh’s Round 7 pick in 2021, Norwood looked extremely promising as a rookie but disappeared into obscurity for most of 2022. So-so as a pure athlete, but understood to be a smart, hard-working young player too.
• Box SAF Keanu Neal. 6’1”, 212 lbs. with 32¾” arms and 10⅝” hands. Turns 28 in July.

 ANALYSIS

It could be worse, though it could also be a lot better. Here is the lemonade view: If Ahkello Witherspoon stays healthy and James Pierre makes the next leap, the team would be in pretty good shape on the outside (assuming Omar Khan can get them signed for 2024 and beyond). Patrick Peterson played very well in 2022, and his only real question mark for 2023 comes in the form of Father Time’s straw piling up on the camel’s back. Levi Wallace is as solid a CB2 as you could ask for. And a year ago we were all wondering if Witherspoon had finally shed his injury bug thoroughly enough to be the genuine CB1 he looked like in 2021. That adds up to three legitimate starters on the outside, plus depth, Nickel DBs, and Safeties. Better than most teams, right?

Then there is the other outlook: “Lemons, lemons, the world has nothing but lemons and my poor Steelers are doomed, Doomed, DOOMED. Peterson is older than dirt and bound to break his hip in a fall on day 1. Wallace may be a legit CB2, but that’s all he is; he is going into his final year, and the refs are out to get him anyway because he makes WRs look bad. Witherspoon might as well just shoot himself in the knee to save us all the waiting. And not a single one of the others is under contract beyond 2023, nor are they worth the time to insult. Death, doom and gloom / misery, suffering, and fear / destruction, heartache, and tragic loss / we should just give up right here…”

It makes you crazy, no? How about we agree on a middle ground. Pittsburgh’s outside Corners include a fading superstar as its CB1, a solid but unexceptional CB2, and a fringe CB1/2 with an absolutely awful history of repeated injuries. That’s more or less a league average room with extra room for extra swing toward either good or ill – on the outside. The Slot/Nickel half of the room is weaker but deeper. Thus (i) a promising young rookie for Peterson and Wallace to mentor would fit in great, and (ii) a top-notch Nickel DB would raise all boats significantly.

At least one CB pick seems likely, and maybe even two if the team sees bargains for both the Boundary and the Slot positions. There’s no cause for full on panic but we would all have a right to be very disappointed if the draft day gods deprive us of the chance to fish in the extremely dense waters of this year’s draft class.

IS THERE ANYONE OUT THERE WHO CAN HELP WITH SOME Xs AND Os?

I (we!) really need some guidance on how man-match and zone-match systems are going to change the characteristics Pittsburgh will demand and/or avoid in the draft. I get that they might, and indeed must to some extent or another; but how and in what ways?

As I understand it, over the last 10-15 years modern versions of pre-snap motion, detailed film study, audibles, and option routes have given offenses a distinct advantage. When combined with more restrictive rules on coverage techniques, the net effect has been all those 30-point averages that Roethlisberger used to target. No matter what the defense does, man or zone, a good offense with a great QB can make that defense wrong by shifting into particular route concepts at the line of scrimmage. “Match” schemes are the newest defensive countermove. They work by allowing the defense to shift between man and zone principles after the snap, in response to the routes as they are run. Corners that start out in man coverage are taught to shift their man or move over into zones against particular patterns. Same thing for Corners who start out in zone.

You’ve seen and heard all those reports about teams relying ever more heavily on Cover-2 defensive schemes? I believe they aren’t “cover-2” in the classic sense, but rather a cover-2 starting point that morphs mid-play according to these match-and-react principles. Somehow or other. As I said, the specifics remain outside of my grasp for now, but the net effect has been many fewer games where the offense became unstoppable.

All this evolution is forcing me (us!) to re-evaluate some of the rules we’ve used to evaluate CB prospects over the past 10-20 years.

Under Dick LeBeau the Steelers ran a base cover-3 zone for a heavy percentage of plays, mixing in man coverage only as needed to keep the offense from knowing exactly what was coming. That scheme lessened the need for pure height and speed, and instead put an emphasis on finding extra smart Corners with good COD skills, who could click-and-close with violence in their hearts when it came to tackling the catch.

The team evolved to a much heavier dose of man coverage after LeBeau departed. That left guys like Ross Cockrell out in the wind, and put a new premium on recovery speed, silky-smooth hips, strength at the catch point, and a nice combination of height/length to shrink the windows available for super-accurate NFL quarterbacks. The team could work around lack of size when the CB had wonderful technique, but we draftniks knew we had to screen out the Seattle-type Corners because their particular flaws just wouldn’t work in a Mike Tomlin defense. This approach has continued in recent years, subject to the growing need for a good Nickel DB in addition to classic Outside/Boundary CBs.

The statisticians tell us that Pittsburgh ran the most man-intensive coverage schemes in the NFL last year, and the eye test confirms that it really worked. But I’m told those man-coverages also mix a lot of match-man concepts, which changes things around because… Aaaarrrrrgh.

So riddle me this if you are someone who actually understands the Xs and Os at this deep a level. Are the draft rules changing again? If so, what are the things we need to highlight with extra stars, or label with special flags and question marks? All this matters more this year because the class is so very strong, but also features a lot of those big-and-tall prospects who might have been downgraded as Seattle-types in earlier years. Here is a list of this year’s prospects, organized once again into three basic categories. NOTE: The following table omits many Day 3 prospects because they either have so many flaws that it is hard to see their path toward any of these roles, or because they are pure zone CBs.

THE BIG BOARD DESCRIPTIONS

Please let me know of any grades you disagree with, and why! This group is very far from finalized.