Perspective Of An Average Steelers Fan: 2018 Draft Class Review

2018 Top 3 Rookie Draft Picks

Last year, I compared the statistics of the Steelers top three draft picks with their contemporaries selected by other teams in the 2018 NFL draft. Of course, it may take another season to figure out the true trajectory of any player’s career.

Here, I update the progress of Mason Rudolph, James Washington, Terrell Edmunds and now Minkah Fitzpatrick in a midseason review of the 2018 rookies. Plus, this year wide receiver Anthony Miller added into the mix.

Here is how the Pittsburgh Steelers first three picks of the 2018 draft (and their first of the 2020 season) stack up statistically in their third season against their contemporaries. All the statistics extracted from the Pro Football Reference so there may be variances with other sources.

SAFETY

Defensive stats for 2018-2021 regular seasons:

stats via Pro Football Reference

Synopsis of each listed safety for the 2019 season:

Terrell Edmunds (1st/28th overall): Edmunds started 15 of 16 games played and was up and down in coverage in 2018. His 78 total tackles ranked second on the team. In 2019 he played 96% of the defensive snaps. He made 105 tackles tops in this group and second on the Steelers again. In 2020, he intercepted two passes and his 68 tackles was third on the team. Edmunds added two more interceptions and 89 tackles in 2021.

Over four seasons Terrell Edmunds has only missed one game. He leads the group in total snaps with 4438 defensive and special team snaps. He’s the most targeted safety in this group. But has given up the second lowest catch% with only Minkah Fitzpatrick lower. He also has the second lowest missed tackle percentage at 8.6% with 32 misses. Edmunds has held receivers to under 60% receptions when he covers them in three of his four seasons. The Steelers did not extend Edmund’s rookie contract but offered him a contract. He is still a free agent as he evaluates the market. Edmunds has steadily improved but lacks splash plays. However, he’s effectively complemented Minkah Fitzpatrick as a strong safety tandem.

Minkah Fitzpatrick (1st/11th overall): Minkah played his rookie season in Miami. Then, the Steelers gambled and traded a first-round draft pick for Fitzpatrick just after the 2019 season started. He is a two-time first team All-Pro and Pro Bowler as a Steeler. In four seasons Fitzpatrick scored four defensive touchdowns including three wearing the Black and Gold. Also, Minkah scored a touchdown off a blocked punt that NFL officials called back for offside. Film review shows that it was a clean play. He leads this group with 13 interceptions, four forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries. He’s the third most targeted by quarterbacks. But his 58.5% completion per target is the lowest in the group. He’s also second in tackles showing run stopping capability along with his coverage skills. The Steelers picked up his fifth-year option. Minkah’s only played in two playoff games. Looking for more as his career progresses.

Derwin James (1st/17th overall): Derwin James made 111 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 13 pass breakups and 3 interceptions his rookie season. That performance resulted in selection onto AP first team All-Pro team, Pro Bowl, and PFWA All-Rookie team. Unfortunately, the Chargers placed him on injured reserve in 2019 after a stress fracture to his right foot. James returned and played the last five games and two playoffs. He missed the 2020 season due to a meniscus tear. James back on track in 2021. He returned to the Pro Bowl after playing 15 games with 118 tackles and two interceptions. He’s played the least games in this group. But when available he’s a star. However, he’s allowed receivers a 64.6% catch rate. That’s second highest among this group. The Chargers extended his contract into the fifth season. They came within an overtime game of the playoffs in 2021.

Jessie Bates III (2nd/54th overall): Jessie Bates led the group with 111 total tackles his rookie season. Plus, he intercepted three passes including a pick-six. PFWA placed him on their 2018 All-Rookie team. In 2019, he matched his rookie season with three interceptions. In 2020, Bates added three interceptions. The AP named Bates a second team All-Pro. In 2021, Bates intercepted one pass in regular season. But added two more in four playoff games including one in Bengals Super Bowl loss. In four seasons, receivers he covered caught the ball 64.9% of the time. That’s highest among this group. Bates started all 16 Cincinnati games his first three seasons and 15 in 2021. Bates is second with 35 passes defensed and 10 interceptions. His 408 tackles top the group. The Bengals placed the franchise tag on Bates this offseason. However, he’s not signed yet and extension talks appear stalled.

Justin Reid (3rd/68th overall): In 2018, Justin Reid intercepted three passes and defended nine plus added a 101-yard interception return for a TD. In 2019 Reid intercepted two and defensed five passes. He played his sophomore year with a torn labrum but only missed one game. In 2020, quarterbacks who targeted him achieved a 110.2 passer rating which was highest in this group. He missed the last three games with a hand injury. In 2021, he missed four games including a suspension due to a disagreement with the coaching staff. He played in three playoff games in 2018 and 2019. Over four seasons, Reid allowed 63.1% completed passes targeting a receiver he was defending. However, he’s missed 41 tackles and has the highest missed tackle rate among the group at 11.5%. He’s also given up the most touchdowns. Reid benefits by going to a more stable organization in the Chiefs.

Ronnie Harrison (3rd/93rd overall): Ronnie Harrison started eight of 14 games but often rotated out in 2018. In 2019, Harrison started all 14 games he played. He defended nine passes to go with his two interceptions. He recovered a fumble and recorded two sacks. Also, he reduced his completion percentage on targets from 77.8% in 2018 to 55.3% in 2019. The Jaguars traded Harrison to the Cleveland Browns for a fifth-round draft choice at the start of the 2020 season. He scored his first touchdown with a pick-six against the Colts. The Browns placed him on injured reserve after a shoulder injury on December 1. But he returned to play against the Steelers in their season finale and both Browns playoff games.

In 2021, referees ejected Harrison after a pushing incident in game one. He started 11 of first 12 games. But placed on injured reserve and did not play the rest of the season. Harrison missed 14 games and played least defensive snaps. But 18 misses with 199 total tackles gives him lowest miss tackle rate at 8.3%. Still a physical player. Cleveland re-signed him for depth in the secondary.

Safety Summary

This is a talented group though injuries stymie progress. Derwin James missed 29 games in 2019 and 2020 after an All-Pro rookie season. He returned strong in 2021 as a Pro Bowler. Ronnie Harrison missed 14 games and Justin Reid eight over four seasons. Jessie Bates who the Bengals picked in the second round is very solid as is Justin Reid. Minkah Fitzpatrick is at the top of this group. Terrell Edmunds improving each season. The two have missed one game apiece in their career. But Edmunds is still unsigned. The Steelers did okay with Edmunds but their trade for Minkah paying big dividends.

WIDE RECEIVER

Receiving stats for 2018-2021 regular seasons:

stats via Pro Football Reference

Synopsis of each listed wide receiver for the 2019 season:

James Washington (2nd/60th overall): Six of eight receivers in this group drafted ahead of James Washington. 2019 was his most productive season when he caught 44 passes for 735 yards and two touchdowns. He did score five touchdowns in 2020 but just 30 catches for 392 yards. But 2021 was Washington’s least productive year since his rookie season. Just 24 receptions for 285 yards and two touchdowns. He lags all but one of his contemporaries in targets, receptions, receiving yards per game, and touchdowns. Despite more games than all but DJ Moore. His 52.3% catch rate on 218 targets is dead last. He’s dropped 13 passes in three seasons for a 6.0% drop rate. Dallas signed Washington to a one-year deal. Cowboys expect Washington to fill-in as the number two receiver until Michael Gallup can return from knee surgery. Then he may move to the slot position.

DJ Moore (1st/24th overall): The Carolina Panthers picked Moore ahead of the rest the receivers in this group. In four seasons, he’s tops in targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving yards per game and first downs. He’s dropped 24 passes in four seasons for a 4.8% drop rate. Second among the group. The PFWA named him to their 2018 all-rookie team. In 2020, his 18.1 yards per receptions was third highest in the NFL. Moore has missed just two games in four seasons. Seven different quarterbacks have started at least one game since Moore’s rookie season. With 14 touchdowns out of 498 targets, he scores every 35.6 targets which is highest in the group. I had to search to nitpick as Moore’s durability and talent puts him at the top of his class. The Panthers extended Moore’s contract through the 2025 season.

Calvin Ridley (1st/26th overall): The Atlanta Falcons selected Ridley two picks after Moore. He blows the group away with 28 touchdowns. The next closest has 17. He’s dropped 19 passes in four seasons for a 5.8% drop rate. PFWA named him to their 2018 all-rookie team. He placed in top ten in the NFL in receiving touchdowns in 2018 and 2020. His 91.6 receiving yards per game was fourth in the NFL in 2020 and the AP placed him on their second team all-pro team. Among this group, he ranks second in receptions, receiving yards, catch%, receiving yards per game, and first downs. Impressive, since Ridley stepped away from football in 2021 after playing just five games due to mental health issues. Unfortunately, the NFL suspended Ridley for the 2022 season due to betting on football games. The second-best receiver in this group must wait until 2023 to entertain fans.

Courtland Sutton (2nd/40th overall): In 2018, Courtland Sutton was a long ball threat averaging 16.8 yards a catch. He only caught half of his 82 targets but became the number two Broncos receiver following the trade of Demaryius Thomas. In 2019, Sutton improved his catches per target from 50% to 58.1%. and made the Pro Bowl. Unfortunately, he tore an ACL against the Steelers and lost for the season after playing just one game in 2020. Sutton came back in 2021, playing all 17 games. He gained 776 receiving yards on 58 catches. He leads the group with 15.2 yards per reception over four seasons. Sutton averages 26 targets per touchdown, second from the bottom of this group. However, Sutton may be able to reduce that rate with quarterback Russell Wilson now at the helm for the Broncos. Denver signed Sutton to a four-year extension before the 2021 season ended.

Dante Pettis (2nd/44th overall): Pettis injured his knee on a punt return resulting in three missed games his rookie season. He finished the season with 20 catches for 359 yards and four TDs in his last 5 games. In 2019, he appeared in 11 49ers games. However, his 11 receptions and 109 receiving yards was last in this group that year. He started out with the 49ers in 2020 but Kyle Shanahan questioned his effort and waived him after five games. The Giants picked him up in week nine and he played the last two games of the season. Pettis injured his shoulder ending his season after week eight in 2021. Pettis appeared in least number of games in the group. He lags at the bottom in most receiving categories. Currently, Pettis is a free agent. We’ll see if a team signs him to their practice squad in 2022.

Christian Kirk (2nd/47th overall): The Arizona Cardinals picked Kirk as the fifth receiver in 2018 draft. He made the PFWA all-rookie team as a punt returner. But averages just 6.5 yards on 51 punt returns over four seasons. He broke his foot and Arizona placed him on injured reserve in week 13 of his rookie season. Christian Kirk missed three more games in 2019 due to an ankle injury. However, he returned to start 13 games. He played 14 games in 2020. Kirk caught 77 passes for 982 yards in 2021. Both career highs. He has capable hands. He leads the group with 65.9% catch rate. He’s dropped 16 passes in four seasons for a 4.5% drop rate second lowest in the group. Kirk second in scoring with 104 points. But his 12.3 yards per reception is second from the bottom. Jacksonville signed Kirk to a four-year contract for 2022.

Anthony Miller (2nd/51st overall): Miller played all but one game his first three seasons. He scored two touchdowns in 2019 and 2020 after scoring seven his rookie year. In 2020, officials ejected him from the Bears wildcard game versus the Saints. The Bears traded Miller to Houston in 2021. He played two games scoring one touchdown but then released. At the time, he was the only Texans receiver to score a touchdown. Pittsburgh signed Miller to their practice squad, and he appeared in one game. In four years, 11 drops give him a 4.8% drop rate and he caught 61.7% his targets. Both third among this group. However, he ranks last with 11.4 yards per catch and his 1589 receiving yards is next to last. His average depth of target dropped from 11.7 his rookie season to 6.3 yards this year. Will Anthony Miller factor into Steelers 2022 game plans?

DJ Chark (2nd/61st overall): D.J. Chark had 33 targets in 11 games with Jacksonville Jaguars quarterbacks Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler throwing him balls in 2018. In 2019, Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles threw to him. In 2020 Minshew plus Mike Glennon and Jake Luton passed to him. Chark shined in 2019 gaining over 1000 receiving yards with eight touchdowns leading to a Pro Bowl berth. His average depth of target has grown steadily from 9.8 his rookie year to 16.3 yards in 2021. Unfortunately, fracturing his ankle ended his season after just four games. In four seasons, Chark dropped nine passes for a 3.4% drop rate, best in the group. He’s tied for third in scoring with Michael Gallup. But he’s tied for second worst catch percentage among this group. The Lions signed Chark to a one-year deal for 2022. Detroit hopes to exploit his size and speed.

Michael Gallup (3rd/81st overall): The Dallas Cowboys did not use Michael Gallup too much in his rookie year. But gained 507 yards on 33 receptions. In 2019 he doubled his receptions and receiving yardage going over 1000 for the year. Plus added six touchdowns. His 79.1 receiving yards per game led this group of receivers and was sixth in the NFL in 2019. In 2020, he caught 59 passes for 843 yards and five touchdowns. A calf injury kept him out of seven games to start 2021. He played nine gains before tearing his ACL missing the last game and the Cowboys playoff. He has the second worst catch and drop percentage among the group. However, he gains a first down every 2.4 targets which is second best. Gallup projected to be Cowboys number two receiver in 2022. However, he may miss 2-3 games recovering from the ACL.

His 55.2% catch per target rate is substantial improvement from 48.5% his rookie year. He’s dropped 22 passes for a 7.7% drop rate. While he is not topping any statistic among this group, he compares favorably as a third rounder especially the 13 touchdowns scored that tied for second in the group. This year he ranked fourth in receptions and third in receiving yards among his teammates.

Wide Receiver Summary

DJ Moore tops this group despite no Pro Bowl appearances or All-Pro honors. His durability and three straight years receiving more than one thousand yards per season a great asset. Calvin Ridley second due to eclipsing the rest of the field with 28 touchdowns. But he missed 12 games in 2021 and NFL suspended him for 2022. Christian Kirk takes third followed closely by DJ Chark. Michael Gallup is behind Courtland Sutherland as he recovers from knee surgery. The Steelers got Anthony Miller but need to use him. James Washington ranks eight but has a new opportunity to shine in Dallas. Dante Pettis has one foot out of the league. The Steelers lost one but gained another wide receiver from this draft class. It will be interesting to see how their respective careers track over the next few seasons.

QUARTERBACK

Passing stats for 2018-2021 regular seasons:

stats via Pro Football Reference

Synopsis of each listed quarterback for the 2019 season:

Mason Rudolph (3rd/76th overall): Rudolph did not play until his second season. In 2019, he went on a rollercoaster ride. He relieved an injured Ben Roethlisberger in week 2 due to Ben’s injured elbow. The Baltimore Ravens concussed him, and he missed one game. He played five games that included the debacle in Cleveland. Rudolph threw four interceptions in that game. Mike Tomlin benched him after an early interception in the very next game. There he sat until the penultimate game of the season against the New York Jets. Mason relieved Devlin “Duck” Hodges and threw a touchdown pass. Unfortunately, a defender landed on him injuring his shoulder which required surgery. In 2020, he had one start in five games played. Another start in 2021 ended in a 16-16 tie with Detroit with receivers fumbling twice in overtime.

He’s earned a role as a back-up but has not proven to be a starting caliber quarterback. Rudolph threw the second highest percentage of bad throws per pass attempt over four seasons. We’re comparing Mason Rudolph against the five quarterbacks picked ahead of him … all first-round picks. The Steelers signed Mitch Trubisky in the offseason. The transaction makes it clear that Rudolph must compete for the starting position in 2022.

Baker Mayfield (1st/1st overall): Baker Mayfield had an impressive rookie season. PFWA named him to 2018 All-Rookie team. The Browns slumped in 2019 but Mayfield threw for 3827 yards with 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. In 2020, Mayfield led the Cleveland Browns to their first playoff victory since 1994. The Browns lost to Kansas City the following week, but the close score had Cleveland fans feeling optimistic. He improved his accuracy throwing just eight interceptions against 26 touchdowns. Mayfield leads this quarterback group in passing yards, passing yards per game, and yards gained per pass completion over the past four seasons. He’s second in completions, touchdown passes, and interceptions thrown per pass attempt. But also threw 56 interceptions and sacked 134 times both most in group. His 72.9% of on-target throws only exceeds Josh Rosen. Mayfield played with a torn labrum in 2021 affecting his throwing motion.

Despite being the face of the franchise and playing with an injured shoulder in 2021, the Browns got Deshaun Watson with a fully guaranteed $230 million contract. Mayfield is still on the roster, but media reports say the Browns will trade him after the NFL draft.

Sam Darnold (1st/3rd overall): The Jets selected Sam Darnold as number three overall pick in 2018. But after three seasons New York traded Darnold to the Carolina Panthers. Sam Darnold started 13 games for the Jets missing three with a foot injury in 2018. In 2019, he missed 3 games due to mononucleosis. Darnold missed four games in 2020 due to shoulder soreness then reaggravating the injury. With Carolina, Darnold missed five games after fracturing his scapula. In four seasons he’s thrown 54 touchdown passes but 52 interceptions. And opponents sacked Darnold 133 times. Among the group, he’s next to last in completion percentage, interceptions, sacks, and quarterback rating. On a positive note, Darnold threw the least bad throws per pass attempt. He’s third in passing yards. Carolina may draft a quarterback in 2022. Who knows what the future holds for Sam Darnold?

Josh Allen (1st/7th overall): Josh Allen led Buffalo to three straight playoff appearances. Last year he set an NFL single season playoff record with a 149.0 quarterback rating eclipsing Joe Montana. He missed four games due to an elbow injury his first year. Since then, he’s started every Bills game. In 2020, AP placed him on their second team All-Pro team, and he made Pro Bowl. He rejected the 2021 Pro Bowl alternate slot vacated by Lamar Jackson. Allen leads the group in completions and touchdown passes. He’s second in passing yards, passing yards per game, and quarterback rating. He’s added 2325 rushing yards and 31 rushing touchdowns. That’s 10 more than Jackson. Allen’s 75.8% of on-target throws per pass attempt leads this group. Overall, Buffalo mafia is happy with their quarterback who signed a six-year contract extension in 2021. Pundits predict Allen as a strong 2022 NFL MVP candidate.

Josh Rosen (1st/10th overall): Josh Rosen started 13 of 14 games played his rookie season. He threw 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. His career continued brutally since then. Arizona traded Rosen to Miami in 2019. There he started three of six games before his benching after week six. played. In 2020, The Dolphins drafted Tua Tagovailoa and waived Rosen in September after not finding a trade partner. Tampa Bay signed Rosen to their practice squad, but the 49ers signed him to their roster that December, but he played no games in 2020. Atlanta signed Rosen after he did not make the 49ers roster in 2021. As a back-up, he completed two of 11 passes thrown in four appearances.

In four seasons, Rosen on five different teams. For a first round choice that qualifies as a bust. He’s managed an exceptionally low 61.1 quarterback rating and is at the bottom of this group completing just 54.0% of his passes. Rosen’s 64.4% of on-target and 21.3% bad throws per pass attempt is last in this group.

Lamar Jackson (1st/32nd overall): Lamar Jackson contributed to three straight Raven playoff appearances before 2021. In 2019, he made the AP first team All-Pro team, earning AFC offensive player of the week five times that season. He led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and had the third best passer rating at 113.3. Pundits question his passing ability. He leads this group with a 64.1% completion rate and a 98.1 quarterback rating over four seasons. He’s second in percentage of on-target throws per pass attempt at 74.9%. He also had the second least percentage of poor throws per pass attempt at 18.6%. Plus, Jackson tops in most touchdowns and least interceptions per pass attempt. A true dual threat, he’s ran for 3673 yards, adding on 21 rushing touchdowns to his 84 touchdown passes. Jackson averages 63.3 rushing yards a game. Just 7.3 yards less than Najee Harris rookie season.

ADVANCE PASSING COMPARISON

I’ve mentioned the “on-target throw” metric while comparing the quarterbacks. Here is a chart with select advance passing accuracy statistics. Pro Football Reference began tracking On-target throws in 2019 and includes passes that would have hit the receiver (catchable) per pass attempt but excludes spikes and throwaways. The other stats include all four years 2018-21. I’ve included a stat line for Ben Roethlisberger for comparison to these youngsters over the past four seasons:

Quarterback Summary

After four seasons, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen appear at the top as contributors to their team’s success. Both are dual threats with Jackson gaining more rushing yards. But Allen scored 10 more touchdowns on the ground. They led their teams to three playoff appearances in four seasons apiece.

Baker Mayfield started strong but the should injury drops him to third in the group.

Sam Darnold missed games in each of his four seasons. Now with his second team, the Carolina Panthers looking for a new quarterback through trade or the draft. Josh Rosen on his fifth team in four seasons. He hasn’t started a game since 2019 and is easily the worst in the group.

Mason Rudolph had one season to prove himself a starter and came up short. However, he’s proven he can play in the NFL and while not a franchise quarterback can start games in an emergency. I rank him above both Darnold and Rosen. We’ll see what 2022 brings.

MARCZI SOPHOMORE REVIEWS

Steelers Depot stalwart contributor Matthew Marczi conducts a “stock watch” to review how player performance during trends during the year the season. I’ve pulled the links for the latest evaluation to show how each player was last trending:

REST OF DRAFT CLASS

The Steelers drafted four other players in rounds three to seven in 2018. The Steelers drafted Chuks Okorafor in the third round. He played 13 games his rookie year starting his first game at right tackle after injuries to Marcus Gilbert and Matt Feiler. He had two other starts as a tackle-eligible receiver. In 2019, he started one game due to an injury to Ramon Foster. In 2020, he stepped in when Zach Banner hurt his knee and started 15 games at right tackle. Okorafor started 16 games at right tackle in 2021.

Fifth round pick Marcus Allen played just 18 defensive and 19 special team snaps in his first two seasons. In 2021, he played 206 defensive and 196 special team snaps. The Steelers worked him into the defense as a hybrid linebacker after Devin Bush placed on injured reserve. He totaled 30 tackles, but his five misses resulted in a 14.3% missed tackle rate. This year, his defensive snaps dropped but had over 300 special team snaps. The Steelers placed an original-round restricted free agent tender on Allen. So, he’ll have another opportunity to wear the Black and Gold in 2022.

Jaylen Samuels, another fifth rounder, played 711 offensive and 394 special team snaps. The Steelers used him as a third down back and he’s rushed for 459 yards and caught 82 of 100 passing targets. However, he played the least amount of offensive of snaps in 2020 with just 121. Samuels played for the Houston Texans in 2021. He’s currently on the Arizona Cardinals offseason roster.

Seventh round pick Joshua Frazier never made the Steelers roster. The Detroit Lions added the defensive tackle to their practice squad in December 2018 but released him less than a month later. He played briefly for the short-lived Birmingham Iron of the Alliance of American Football league. Frazier was out of football in 2020.

CONCLUSION

Currently, only three of the Steelers seven 2018 draft picks are on the roster. But there is a slight chance that Terrell Edmunds signs back to the Steelers to make it four. Also, The Steelers acquired two draft class contemporaries in Minkah Fitzpatrick and wide receiver Anthony Miller. While Fitzpatrick is a proven All-Pro. Miller has a chance to prove himself in 2022.

Edmunds a four-year starter at safety. Together, Fitzpatrick and Edmunds made a nice safety tandem. Will the Steelers get Edmunds back for a fifth season? James Washington went to Dallas after underutilized by the Steelers. Can Anthony Miller replace him? Mason Rudolph proved to be a decent back-up quarterback. Will he get a second chance to be a starting quarterback?

As for the rest of the class. Chuks Okorafor emerged as a starting offensive lineman. Marcus Allen a core special teams’ player. Jaylen Samuels gone after underperforming at running back. But Joshua Frazier never made it.

The players drafted supplied the Steelers two starters and a core special team player over the past four seasons. Add in a back-up quarterback, receiver, and running back. So, is that good enough?

YOUR MUSIC SELECTION

I always like to include a bit of music. The 2019 Steelers draft class is thinning out. I’d like to see more. Here is Not Enough by Van Halen.