As we’ve been doing for many years now, we break down the Pittsburgh Steelers’ opponent each week, telling you what to expect from a scheme and individual player standpoint. Like last year, Josh Carney and I will cover the opposing team’s offense. I will focus on the scheme, Josh on the players.
Today, our scouting report on the Green Bay Packers’ offense for Week 8’s game against the Steelers.
Alex’s Scheme Report
Packers Run Game
The Packers’ running game has been about average this season. It ranks 15th with 117.5 rushing yards per game and is tied for 21st with 17 runs of 10-plus yards. The group has been consistent, notching at least 78 rushing yards in all six games this season.
Josh Jacobs is the lead back with 111 carries this season, easily the team’s bell cow. He hasn’t been terribly efficient with a 3.7 YPC and 48.6-percent run success rate, but has found the end zone eight times this season. In fact, he’s recorded two rushing touchdowns in each of the past three games. It’s the NFL’s longest active streak and one of just 38 players since the 1970 merger to do so in three-straight games. If Jacobs does it a fourth time, he’ll become one of eight players to ever do it and the first since LaDainian Tomlinson during his historic 2006 season.
Rookie wide receiver Savion Williams is a big body and hybrid player. He has six carries on the season, though only one has generated a first down. Four of them have come on 1st and 10, with the others on 2nd and 3, and 2nd and 8. Four of those six came in opposing territory, and his carries have only come while tied or leading, never trailing. Some context for when he gets the ball.
Schematically, it’s a mixture of man and zone runs. Mostly, they are done out of two tight end sets. Green Bay runs a heavy amount of 2×2 12 personnel with two tight ends on the field. Some examples of the run scheme (not all of these are 2×2).
There are some gap scheme runs with the right guard pulling from the backside and split flow variations with the tight end in motion.
On a 4th-and-1, the Packers lined up in empty and ran a true QB sneak, not a Tush Push, to convert. Though it’s largely for the RPO/quick pass game, Green Bay will use Pony/2 RB sets with Jacobs and Emmanuel Wilson sharing the field. With Williams also a run-game option, there are plenty of threats.
Some other offensive stats. Green Bay ranks 7th in points per game at 26.3 per. The Packers have scored 27-plus in five of six games. The only exception was a 13-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Green Bay is 14th at 343.3 yards per game. The team has a flat zero turnover differential, tied for 14th, but the Packers rarely turn the football over. They’ve done so just three times this year, exactly one in three games. That rate is tied for second-best this season.
Situationally, the Packers have the NFL’s No. 1 third-down offense at 49.3 percent. They also rank No. 1 on third and long (7-plus yards) at a whopping 70 percent. The next closest sits at 52.9 percent, one of two teams above 50 percent. For a Steelers’ defense struggling in these moments, that’s concerning. The Packers rank fifth in red zone efficiency at 72 percent.
Packers Pass Game
Led by Jordan Love. Enjoying a strong season, completing just under 70 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s averaging an impressive 7.9 adjusted net yards/passing attempt, sixth-best league-wide. Over his last three games, he’s thrown five touchdowns to just one interception. However, he’s also fumbled three times over that span.
Love has a solid array of weapons to target. Starting with WR Romeo Doubs, boasting a 24/306/4 line this season. Right behind him sits TE Tucker Kraft at 23/326/4, tied third among tight ends with touchdowns. The Packers are one of three teams with teammates who have four receiving touchdowns this season, entering Week 8, joining the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys.
Speedy rookie WR Matthew Golden has seen his role increase, playing about 70 percent of the snaps in three of his last four games.
This offense has a West Coast feel, similar to the old Mike Holmgren-style of deep drops from under center. Watch Love take this seven-step drop on the first play against the Cincinnati Bengals.
It’s a frequent play-action offense. The Packers also like to use vertical divide routes to put safeties in conflict, along with Dagger concepts and vertical/dig combinations.
Alert Twin WR sets for smoke/hot throws against off coverage. Quick check for Love.
Green Bay does a great job of mitigating pass rushers. It’s why Love has only been sacked once in each of his last three games, though the Browns took him down five times. Lots of attention on chips from tight ends and running backs. The Packers pay attention to all top threats, even holding Myles Garrett to just a half-sack in that game. Against the Bengals, the Packers minimized Trey Hendrickson. Watch the TE decleat Hendrickson here.
T.J. Watt will see plenty of that this weekend.
Josh’s Individual Report
It’s Packers week, Steelers fans!
With it comes a Sunday Night Football matchup on the North Shore at Acrisure Stadium in which the Steelers are aiming to turn back the clocks to 1933 with their throwback uniforms.
They hope not to play like the 1933 Steelers, though, especially in a high-profile matchup with the Packers, which marks the first career start against his former team for Aaron Rodgers.
He’ll do so going throw for throw against his former protégé in Jordan Love for Green Bay. While Rodgers is playing at a high level in Pittsburgh, so too is Love in Green Bay.
The Packers enter the matchup 4-1-1 on the season, and Love is off to a great start, playing some of his best, most efficient football of his career. He has thrown for 1,438 yards with 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions, completing nearly 70% of his passes.
He has four games with a QB rating of 100+, while his other two games are an 89.3 and a 93.9. Pretty darn good from Love.
The young quarterback can make all of the throws, change arm angles, connect on off-platform throws, and get out of the pocket and make things happen on the move.
He has a good arm and can make all the throws, too, allowing his accuracy to shine.
Having Love under center is a huge help for the rushing attack. The Packers are good at running the football and can lean on the workhorse that is Josh Jacobs.
Since joining the Packers, Jacobs has 23 rushing touchdowns in a season and a half and really is a hammer between the tackles. He can wear defenses down, and in the second half of games, you see him start to rack up those 10, 12, 15-yard chunk plays, barreling through defenders.
Jacobs is a good pass-catching running back, too, and can truly do it all for the Packers. He’ll be the biggest test the Steelers have faced all season at the running back position.
Backup Emanuel Wilson is a nice complementary piece to Jacobs and brings some added physicality, while Chris Brooks can provide some snaps in a pinch, too. The Packers trust both running backs behind Jacobs.
At receiver, the Packers are very deep and talented, and they could be getting a significant boost with the return of Christian Watson. He tore his ACL last season and has missed all of this season to date. But his return window was opened on Oct. 6, and it’s getting close. He could play on Sunday.
If he does, he’s a height/weight/speed weapon to worry about. Though it would seem logical that his snaps would be limited in his return, he’s a guy who just needs a few targets to really create a splash.
The leader of this room, though, is Romeo Doubs. He’s been in trade speculation over the last year, but he’s emerged as the No. 1 weapon for the Packers in the passing game and is thriving with his former college QB.
Doubs is a sound route runner with good hands who knows how to find the open space. He’s tough to cover, even if he’s not the biggest or fastest, or runs the most explosive routes.
That’s where rookie Matthew Golden comes into the mix. The first-round receiver has come on strong in recent weeks and is developing more and more chemistry with Love. He can run a full route tree and is very slippery after the catch.
He’s a guy who could take the top off of the defense, too, though the Packers have largely been trying to find ways to get him the ball quickly in space to let him run.
With Dontayvion Wicks expected to miss this week with injury, names like Malik Heath and rookie Savion Williams will have larger roles. Heath is a big-bodied receiver who has had some success making downfield contested catches, while Williams is another guy the Packers like to get the ball quickly and let him work in space.
At tight end, Tucker Kraft continues to emerge as a star. He’s a tough-as-nails player who is good after the catch and unafraid to go anywhere on the field to make a play.
He’s become a favorite of Love’s, and all he does is make plays. He’s a good blocker, too, and really thrives in the run game for the Packers.
Luke Musgrave is another talented tight end who can make plays in the passing game. In the 2023 matchup with the Steelers, Musgrave had two catches for 64 yards, having some success down the field. With the issues the Steelers have had covering tight ends this season, don’t be surprised to see the Packers target the position frequently.
Up front, the Packers have one of the most underrated offensive lines in football. Here’s how I expect them to line up left to right Sunday night:
LT — Rasheed Walker
LG — Aaron Banks
C — Elgton Jenkins
RG — Jordan Morgan
RT — Zach Tom
This is one heck of an offensive line, assuming health. The tackle tandem of Walker and Tom is one of my favorites in football. Walker is a steady presence, while Tom is very sound and vastly underrated. If he were a left tackle, he’d be considered one of the best in football.
The Packers made a splash in free agency, signing Banks away from the 49ers, and he’s been as advertised. Big, mean, physical blocker in the middle, and has really been a force in the run game.
Morgan is a former first-round pick who was supposed to be the answer at LT, but has stepped in at right guard and played well. Good athlete and is starting to come on as a run blocker. Jenkins is the best player here, though.
He went from a standout guard and tackle to a dominant center, and it’s really not surprising. Good in the run game, great feet in pass protection.
On special teams, the Packers now have two kickers who can hit from anywhere. Lucas Havrisik connected on a franchise record 61-yard field goal last week in Arizona, and he’s filling in for the injured Brandon McManus.
If McManus can go on Sunday, the Packers will have a tough decision to make.
At punter, Daniel Whelan is a weapon for Green Bay. He’s averaging 52.1 yards per punt, the third-best mark in the NFL. He’s only punted the ball 19 times, but five of those have been downed inside the 20-yard line. He can really flip the field.
In the return game, Savion Williams and Bo Melton are handling the kick returns. Williams is averaging 26.1 yards per kick return with a long of 36, while Melton has a long of 36 on the season and is averaging 27.8 yards per return.
Doubs is handling the punt returns lately, averaging 6.3 yards per return, though Golden has also handled punt return duties and is more explosive there.
