As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week One game against the New York Jets.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Defense Takes Away Jets Plan A & Plan B
Which is, the Jets’ running game and WR Garrett Wilson. Obviously, taking away any offense’s top two goals is a clear and obvious path to winning. But the Jets’ offense is more limited than others and these are two achievable goals. Even without Derrick Harmon, Pittsburgh’s beefed its run defense with additions like CB Jalen Ramsey (a great presence from the slot) while players like ILB Payton Wilson are expected to improve downhill. Revised contract in hand, DL Cam Heyward plays an obviously important role. Rallying and slowing down RBs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen are key.
In the passing game, that’s Wilson. With all due respect to vets like WR Allen Lazard and rookie TE Mason Taylor, Wilson is the top and most proven guy. Pittsburgh’s adds at cornerbacks were meant to combat with the likes of Wilson and he can’t record chunk plays or finish drives in the end zone. Time to show what this new defense, and its schematic tweaks, can really do.
2. Steelers’ Receiver Speed Wins
DK Metcalf will have a tough time against Jets CB Sauce Gardner. He can still make plays and OC Arthur Smith must scheme him up to win but I’m interested in the other matches, too. Calvin Austin III and Roman Wilson have real wheels and the Jets carry questions at corner behind Gardner. Brandon Stephens netted a strong contract this offseason but his 2024 play doesn’t reflect it. Austin nor Wilson need to have volume but a couple of downfield plays is exactly what the Steelers are searching for.
3. They’re The Cleaner, More Fundamental Team
Week One in the NFL is weird. Always has been, always will be. New rosters, new coaches, new schematic tinkering. That makes game planning and knowing what to expect tough, especially for these two teams with so much change.
So you play to your fundamentals. Be less penalized, don’t turn the ball over, and adhere to the NFL’s “point of emphasis” on taunting that has them flag-happy to begin the year. Don’t do anything that could draw an unsportsmanlike conduct call. Whoever can follow the details has the clear edge to come out on top.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Last Year’s Problems Carry Over
Pittsburgh must show it’s past last year’s issues. On offense, that was being the NFL’s worst first down team (4.5-yards per play), an inefficient running game, and dreadful short-yardage outcomes. Defensively, that was pressure that shrunk by year’s end and communication busts galore. A steady running game is important and the Jets’ front and 4-3 alignment can make things tough on the Steelers.
That all has to be put to bed for this game and all the rest. Or else it’ll be worth wondering if Pittsburgh thought new personnel could solve the root of their problems.
2. Defense Plays Too Slow
One big concern from this game? The Jets’ offense forcing the Steelers’ defense to slow down. Read instead of react. In the run game, accounting for Fields and the mesh point/read option threat that can hold backside defenders. In the passing game, a Steelers’ rush that might be more concerned about contain than generating pressure, taking the teeth out of Pittsburgh’s best players.
These are tough lines to walk. Pros and cons, trade-offs, being smart versus being aggressive. But Pittsburgh’s job is to walk them well.
3. Jets Kicker Closes Things Out
The Jets’ five-win 2024 campaign is a little misleading. There was a real chance for New York to finish with seven or eight wins last year. Kicker Greg Zuerlein missed several critical boots and was jettisoned by mid-season. Former Jets’ kicker Nick Folk returns and in a close game, New York might get better results to steal points. Or steal the game.
Prediction
Steelers: 23
Jets: 17
Season Prediction Record
0-0
