Following each game in the 2025 Pittsburgh Steelers season, I will highlight the event, or string of events, in the game that was the turning point. Not all turning points will be earth-shattering but are meant to give a unique look at how we arrived at the outcome of the game, one that may be hard to see during the live watch.
“Poor judgement by a young player.” That’s how Mike Tomlin summed up Kaleb Johnson’s costly mistake that spotted the Seattle Seahawks a free touchdown at a critical juncture of the game when the score was still 17-14.
Johnson’s miscue was the single-biggest turning point in the game, but it’s important to look at the sequence that preceded it.
Let’s back up to Aaron Rodgers’ interception in the end zone due to Calvin Austin III’s mistake. It took seven points off the board, but the defense quickly responded, allowing zero yards for a rare three and out and setting up the Steelers with good starting field position.
The offense had only gained 169 yards up to that point of the game, and the Steelers had a 4th and 1 on their own 48-yard line. They were struggling to get anywhere near Seattle territory as it was. That was their chance to steal a 4th-and-short conversion to at least get into Chris Boswell field goal territory. Tomlin instead opted to punt and put the game in his defense’s hands when it couldn’t stop a nosebleed all day.
The analytics-driven Surrender Index labeled Tomlin’s decision a “cowardly punt.”
Seattle drove 55 yards in 10 plays to set up a field goal, which eventually led to the Johnson disaster.
Rodgers threw the end zone interception with 4:12 remaining in the third quarter. The kick-return snafu happened just 6:26 later in the early portion of the fourth quarter.
The interception, the punt decision, and kickoff gaffe all happened in quick succession, and completely turned the tide of the game. ESPN’s win probability for the Steelers went from 70.8 percent to 12.5 during that span.
It’s hard to pinpoint which play is most to blame. ESPN’s probability tool points to Johnson as the easy answer, but they were all similarly impactful.
The end-zone interception was a seven-point swing. The punt decision could have easily taken at least three points off the board, and then of course the kickoff was another seven-point swing.
Don’t be thrown off by the 31-17 final score. This was a very winnable game. If any of those go the other way, we are probably talking about the Steelers escaping another shaky performance with a 2-0 record. Instead, it feels like the sky is falling early in the season.
