Omar Khan and the Pittsburgh Steelers went through the 2025 free agency period with the compensatory pick system in mind. They knew they would have some high-value players exiting and were careful not to cancel out those losses with high-value signings in order to stockpile draft picks in the 2026 NFL Draft.
They have been projected to receive four comp picks, but now the value of some of those picks is up in the air depending on the play time and incentives hit by QBs Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. Comp pick expert Nick Korte at Over the Cap released his latest projections after Week 1.
“Both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields starting for their new teams could push the Steelers to their best-case scenario: Wilson pushing into the 4th round, while Fields is very close to the 3rd round,” Korte wrote. “However, there’s a major caveat on Russ….Russell Wilson needs to keep starting the entire season in order for that 4th rounder to materialize for the Steelers.
“If he plays less than 40% of the snaps, his contract could fall all the way to the 6th round. So the Steelers should hope he makes it through about Week 7.”
The good news is that Fields looked very good in Week 1 and could legitimately make a push toward maxing out at a third-round comp pick value for the Steelers. As long as he stays healthy, Pittsburgh is positioned very well there.
Russell Wilson’s situation looks dubious at best. With an incentive-laden contract tied to snap counts and performance, the most realistic option all along has been a fifth-round comp pick. Since he started in Week 1, the current projection shows what it would look like if he starts the entire season. That outcome seems unlikely given the Giants’ awful Week 1 performance.
The Steelers really need Wilson to start through Week 7 or 8 to get at least a fifth-round pick for him.
On a positive note, the Giants’ bye isn’t until Week 14 as a natural time to make the switch. But they also have tough games against the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles (twice), and Denver Broncos over the next couple months. They could be staring at a very poor record after the first four or five weeks, forcing Brian Daboll to make a change.
With 12 projected draft picks next year, the Steelers should be in a good situation regardless to maneuver the draft board. But the difference between a fourth- and sixth-round pick is nothing to sneeze at. Fields securing a third-round pick would be massive.
However the Wilson situation plays out, Pittsburgh is still sitting on one of the league’s largest draft caches heading into 2026. But this will definitely be worth keeping an eye on throughout the season with notable implications for the Steelers’ draft.
