ESPN doesn’t love T.J. Watt’s chances of bouncing back from his quiet 2024 finish. Relying on its analytics model to project sack totals for the NFL’s top pass rushers, Watt isn’t expected to surpass last year’s total. The site’s algorithm believes he’ll finish with just 10.7 sacks, which would be his lowest total in a non-injury season since his rookie year.
There is one important caveat. The model projects on the conservative side for all pass rushers. Not just Watt. His total is fifth-best league-wide with leader Aidan Hutchinson projected to finish with just 12.2. To put that in perspective, the last time 12 or fewer sacks led the NFL was the strike-shortened 1982 season when Doug Martin led with 11.5. Prior to that, it hasn’t happened since 1965.
Author Seth Walder says the model is projecting confidence in Watt. Not doubt.
“By ranking him fifth, our projection model doesn’t seem to forecast a rapid decline,” he writes. “The model calculates what a player does for the previous two seasons, and Watt’s 2023 pass-rushing numbers were exceptional.”
But Walder expresses his own doubt. He cites Watt’s decreased pass rush win rate (24 to 19-percent), a dirty word in Steelers’ circles, and zero sacks over his final five games. That didn’t deter Pittsburgh from making Watt the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback, giving him another record-setting deal shortly before training camp opened up.
The Cleveland Browns’ Myles Garrett finished one spot ahead of Watt with a projection of 10.9 sacks. The Dallas Cowboys’ Micah Parsons and Cincinnati Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson ranked second and third, putting three AFC North pass rushers inside the top-five. Lower on the list in 21st place is Alex Highsmith with 7.9 sacks. He finished last season with six in an injury-marred year.
Pittsburgh will need more sacks from both, especially Watt. The Steelers’ defense was lackluster in the sack and pressure department by year’s end and was one reason for the team’s historic collapse. Building back a strong pass rush begins with stopping the run and creating more advantageous pass rush situations.
Odds are, Watt will beat ESPN’s projection. As will Garrett, Hendrickson, and the rest. Which calls into question the credibility of Walder’s model that seems to underestimate the production top pass rushers are capable of generating.
