Unlikely as it is, at least one oddsmaker is leaving open the possibility the Pittsburgh Steelers fire Mike Tomlin before the 2025 season ends. The Sports Betting.ag outlet gives Tomlin 28/1 odds of being the first head coach fired this season, the 11th-highest odds around the league.
His odds are among the longer ones on the list and a far cry from favorites like the Miami Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel and New York Giants’ Brian Daboll. But even being this high on the list is a major reach. Pittsburgh hasn’t fired a head coach at any point, let alone midseason, since the 1960s, and Tomlin’s contract, which makes him one of the NFL’s highest-paid coaches, runs through the 2027 season. Owner Art Rooney II firing Tomlin and absorbing the rest of his salary isn’t going to happen.
Tomlin’s last decade in Pittsburgh’s has produced underwhelming results. Super Bowl busts are lofty expectations to live up to, but zero playoff wins since 2017 isn’t meeting anything close to the Steelers’ supposed standard. Still, Rooney’s expressed confidence in Tomlin being the coach to right the ship, noting his ability to connect with players and see them buy into his message.
“I think when you look at how many games Mike has won in this league, you don’t win that many games if you’re not a good coach,” Rooney told local reporters in January. “And I know he’s frustrated like we all are in terms of not being able to take that next step, but we still feel good about him being the leader and still think he has the strengths that he always had in terms of being able to lead a team.
“So, the other side of the coin is, when you look at the fact that we have six, seven, eight teams a year that turn their coaches over, it’s when you have a good coach, you just try to keep building with them.”
Perhaps Tomlin’s odds are relatively high given the potential volatility of Aaron Rodgers. In Rodgers’ full season starting with the Jets, the entire regime was fired. Head coach Robert Saleh was out by early October, general manager Joe Douglas before Thanksgiving. Many pundits see Rodgers’ time with Pittsburgh as boom or bust. Either he proves to be the missing link who gets the franchise over the hump or sinks the ship and brings everyone else with him.
Even in a disaster season, Tomlin almost certainly won’t be fired. He wouldn’t be the first coach canned, either. Such a move would only come after the season, not during, and history says at least one coach around the NFL will lose his job before Black Monday begins.
Since 2018, well more than a dozen coaches have gotten pink slips during the season: Brandon Staley, Urban Meyer, basically anyone who has worked for the Carolina Panthers, a real who’s who of coaching incompetence. That won’t be Tomlin, even if the odds leave that door open.
