The quarterback conundrum remains for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Aaron Rodgers continues to take his time making his decision, and the tea leaves point to a good chance he ends up in the Steel City. It’s not official until it is, though. Today’s goal is to see what Mason Rudolph, currently at the top of the depth chart, offered last season in Tennessee compared to Rodgers and 2024 Steeler Russell Wilson for context.
First, I wanted to discuss quantity. After an extremely shortened 2023 (only two dropbacks) due to an Achilles injury, Rodgers played in all 17 games and had 584 attempts, second-most in the NFL. That is an important part of his 2024 resume, considering the 41-year-old isn’t getting any younger, and the seriousness of the injury he recovered from.
The other quarterbacks in our sights played much less in 2024. Wilson missed six games to begin the year with a calf injury, and had 396 dropbacks, ranking 25th out of the 39 qualifying QBs in this article (min. 250 dropbacks).
Rudolph had 256 dropbacks in 2024 for Tennessee, ranking 37th (third-least). That’s his second-most dropbacks in a season for his five-year career, only to 2019 as a rookie when Pittsburgh was injury plagued at the position. Rudolph has 753 career regular season dropbacks, while Rodgers (9,275) and Wilson (7,122) clearly have the experience edge.
While inconsistent, Rudolph did show positive flashes in his first stint in Pittsburgh prior to his lone season with the Titans. The Steelers reportedly had a first-round grade on him in that draft class, clearly liking his potential. So, go with a more known commodity in Rodgers, or the projection in Rudolph?
Let’s dive into some recent stats. Here are 2024 completion percentage and adjusted completion rate (percentage of aimed passes thrown on target):
All three quarterbacks were below the mean in completion percentage in 2024. Rudolph actually had the slight edge at 64 percent (23rd), nearly identical to Wilson at 24th (63.7). They were also eerily similar in adjusted completion rate, with Wilson’s 77.6 moving all the way up to 10th-best, and Rudolph’s 77.0 coming in at 13th.
This emphasizes that both quarterbacks had supporting cast issues, with Wilson and Rudolph having notably strong seasons in terms of accuracy. Rodgers on the other hand lands below the mean in both, with a 24th ranked 73.7 adjusted completion rate and was 32nd in overall completion percent.
The goal of adjusted completion rate is to remove factors (namely drops/throwaways) that unfairly ding a QBs completion rate, and Rodgers bottoms the list of players we’re focused on. If it weren’t for Colts QB Anthony Richardson’s extremely poor numbers that “broke” the chart, it would look even uglier for Rodgers.
There’s another element that jumps out from 2024. Here are big time throw (pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally downfield and/or tight window) and turnover-worthy play rates (poor job of taking care of the ball, aka interceptable pass/fumbling):
This is an example of Rudolph lacking where the veterans excelled. Wilson was one of the best deep-ball passers in the NFL last season, and much of his career. This is an area that could be missed the most in 2025. We see that Rogers had an above the mean 4.2 big time throw rate (T-16th), a drop-off from Wilson’s 5.7 (fifth), but providing more value than several peers including Rudolph.
The latter was near the bottom of the ranks, with a 2.4 big time throw rate that tied for 35th (third-worst). This aligns with his ability to do enough to win you games, but less wow plays to date that are ideal from a starting QB.
While not to the same extent, Mason Rudolph was also worst of the group in turnover-worthy play rate (2.9), barely landing above the mean. That certainly won’t fly in Pittsburgh, with how much of an onus head coach Mike Tomlin puts on taking care of the football. That was one of the best facets of the veterans 2024 seasons, with Wilson ranking third and Rodgers and fifth-best.
If Rodgers to Pittsburgh comes to fruition, this is one of the easiest dot connections to it being a good fit. It’s not all sunshine and rainbows though, and most fans would agree the holding pattern Rodgers has the Steelers in is exhausting. They just want to know an answer either way.
The projection of how 2025 could look has to lean Rodgers’ way, given his career resume. But he hasn’t been the future Hall of Famer for several years now. In fact, Wilson was better in several aspects of play in 2024 with Pittsburgh in his 13th season.
Rodgers is approaching Year 20 (if he indeed plays), so several arrows point to it being unlikely for a turnaround. The optimistic side is Pittsburgh has been more successful as a team, and it could look better for either Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph than their 2024 seasons.
With everything in mind, along with some of the antics that come with Rodgers, I personally would have preferred a different option from the get-go. But here we are in June, with a week of OTAs in the books and still no answer.
Where we sit today, starting Mason Rudolph in 2025 would actually give him a shot to prove he was worth the first-round grade the Steelers had on him. If it goes well, great. If not, it aids their positioning for the 2026 draft in Pittsburgh. They’re already loading up on picks, so that would also make sense.
Yes, it might make for a painful 2025, but it would potentially help the Steelers find their franchise quarterback sooner. This is a must in today’s NFL, and the options for Pittsburgh this offseason were stale after moving on from Wilson and Justin Fields (who I would have preferred).
Managing the QB position has clearly been a weakness for Pittsburgh as of late. It unfortunately could lead to more of the same this season in the Steel City. However, it potentially wouldn’t be the worst thing in the long run if they can learn from their mistakes and get it right in 2026.
