Today, I wanted to look at new Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and how he fared as a first-down passer last season. Early down success can obviously lead to many good things on offense, and the hope is to see if Rodgers’ recent resume presents any optimism (or vice versa) for the Black and Gold in 2025.
First, let’s get a gauge on accuracy with first down completion rate, along with catchable rate (excluding spikes, throwaways and miscommunications, and including defensed accurate passes):
Rodgers was clearly better than 2024 Steelers starter Russell Wilson. The latter was below the mean in each, while Rodgers had an at-the-mean 67.9 first down completion rate (T-18th, 34 qualifying QBs). His first down catchable rate skyrocketed to 88.8 percent, though, which jumped all the way into a tie for fourth best.
So, Rodgers was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL last season on the early down. Unfortunately for the 2024 Jets, his playmakers let him down too often, emphasized by landing well above the trend line (diagonal line). This point was also true for Wilson, to a lesser extent. The Steelers’ receiving corps will certainly be aiming to prove more reliable for Rodgers.
An important level of play to layer in is yardage. Here is a look at first down yards per attempt along with a stat that layers other vital information – Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A = ([Pass Yards] + 20[Pass TD] – 45[Interceptions] – [Sack Yards])/([Attempts] + [Sacks]):
Both quarterbacks in our sights were below the mean in each. Jumping out most substantially is Rodgers’ dead-last 5.9 yards per attempt on first down in 2024. This means that he took high percentage throws closer to the line of scrimmage than most, which could be taken as totally negative, but can also be smart in making more advantageous second-down situations.
What’s also encouraging about Aaron Rodgers is a 6.5 first down ANY/A, much closer to average at 18th. Considering all that ANY/A factors (yards, TDs, INTs, sacks, attempts), it’s an impressive jump despite his low yards per attempt. He also passed Wilson in the more important stat. It points again to optimism that Rodgers can improve Pittsburgh’s first-down passing offense.
A well-documented narrative is Aaron Rodgers’ strong TD/INT rates over his illustrious two-decade career. Here’s what first down looked like last season:
The quarterbacks we’re focused on were clearly toward the top of the league in interception rates. While Wilson played less, he was one of just two QBs without an interception on first down among the 34 qualifiers, impressively. Aaron Rodgers was right behind with a 0.5 first-down interception rate that tied for third best on just one pick.
It’s rather impressive considering Rodgers had 212 first-down attempts in 2024 (seventh most). For added context, Wilson’s 110 attempts were 28th (seventh least), and the other player with no picks had 118 attempts. So, Rodgers provided the most quality and quantity in these terms than any QB in 2024.
Then there’s a staggering difference in first-down TD rates. Last year in Pittsburgh, Wilson had a 1.8 first-down TD rate that was third worst among qualifiers, on two touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers engulfed those numbers, with 12 first-down touchdowns (fourth), a 5.7 first-down TD rate (fifth) — music to fans’ ears and a team that’s struggled putting up points consistently for some time.
The future is uncertain, and many things can happen year-to-year. In 2024, Aaron Rodgers had a high volume, was substantially more accurate than his overall completion rate suggests and was highly productive in key statistics that align with his resume (TDs, INTs, Sacks).
