Buy or Sell: Kaleb Johnson will record more carries than Jaylen Warren by the end of the season.
Explanation: Ever since the Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson, the tides seem to be turning against Jaylen Warren, still a fan favorite. This offseason, the team moved on from Najee Harris, opening a window for many more touches. But how many will Warren seize, and how many will go to the shiny new object?
Buy:
Kaleb Johnson is the first running back the Steelers have drafted as a player scouted specifically for Arthur Smith’s offense. As seemingly everybody has mentioned, his style of running and background all fit Smith’s preferences. A patient zone runner with burst, he won’t take long to acclimate to the system.
The Steelers want to get Johnson on the field, and carries are the easiest way to do it. While Johnson may edge out Jaylen Warren in carries, Warren will likely outsnap him. He should command the overwhelming share of the remaining carries constituting passing and blocking situations. Basically, any play that isn’t designed to stuff the ball in the runner’s gut, Warren should see.
Sell:
These are always the sorts of conversations that happen in May, far less often in September. It’s a challenge not to have some level of excitement around a rookie, because he represents potential without prior failure. Kaleb Johnson can be the next Derrick Henry right now, so nobody is thinking he could be the next late-stage Eddie Lacy. We know who Jaylen Warren is, though, at least within certain parameters.
Granted, we haven’t seen the Steelers throw a full-time starter’s load at Warren before, especially in terms of carries. To date, he has never had more than 15 carries in a game, and only 12 games of 10-plus carries. Kaleb Johnson is also bigger and evidently built with more endurance.
Warren’s injuries, especially last season, may raise concerns. But here’s the bottom line: Warren is the experienced and proven player. If he were healthy last season, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. Kaleb Johnson is a nice player and may prove to be a very strong long-term starter. But that doesn’t mean he’ll carry the lion’s share as a rookie over an experienced, proven veteran.
The Steelers are building toward the 2025 season, following yet another disappointing year. While they reached the playoffs, they once again lost decisively in the first round. They are facing questions, both publicly, and perhaps privately as well. Questions about The Standard, and what the Steelers stand for.
The rookie class of a year ago was successful, but they need to step up into staple starters in 2025. And they need everyone healthy to do it, not an insignificant consideration. They needed a strong influx of talent in both free agency and in the 2025 NFL draft yet again.
These sorts of uncertainties are what we will address in our Buy or Sell series. In each installment, we will introduce a topic statement and weigh some of the arguments for either buying it (meaning that you agree with it or expect it to be true) or selling it (meaning you disagree with it or expect it to be false).
