With the 2024 regular season in the books, Pittsburgh Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt has his sights on the playoffs. But to focus on the individual, he’s also looking for his second Defensive Player of the Year Award. Leader for the award much of the year, Watt has slipped into second place for DPOY exiting the regular season’s final weekend.
Per DraftKings, Watt now has the second-best odds behind Denver Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II. Here’s the leaderboard.
DPOY Odds
1. CB Patrick Surtain II/Broncos: -360
2. T.J. Watt/Steelers: +450
3. Trey Hendrickson/Bengals: +1,600
4. Andrew Van Ginkel/Vikings: +3000
5. Kerby Joseph/Lions: +4000
In context, those odds were last updated Saturday at 8 PM/EST before Watt kicked off and prior to the NFL finishing up their Sunday slate. But Surtain is the consensus favorite across every major sportsbook, Watt second-place on FanDuel, Caesars and others.
For the first half of the season, Detroit Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson was the early favorite thanks to a scorching start. But a broken leg in Week 6 ended that bid. New York Giants NT Dexter Lawrence fell into a similar boat, out since Week 14 and playing for one of the NFL’s worst teams.
That put Watt in commanding lead to win DPOY. But the race tightened in the final weeks. Partly due to some relatively quiet Watt performances as the Steelers skidded towards the finish line and partly due to impressive play of Surtain and Bonitto as the Broncos made their playoff surge.
Denver made a late playoff push and shut out the Kansas City Chiefs’ backups in Sunday’s finale, a dominant 38-0 victory. Surtain finished the season with four interceptions, a league-high 132 INT return yards, 11 pass breakups, and one forced fumble. No cornerback has won the award since Stephon Gilmore in 2019, the only corner to do it since 2010.
The Broncos finished the season with the No. 3 scoring defense. Pittsburgh dropped to eighth as Watt was shutout on the box score in Saturday’s finale against the Cincinnati Bengals.
It could wind up being one of the closest and most muddled DPOY votes in recent years. Under new criteria, the awards are points based across voting finishes, not solely considered by first-place votes. In theory, a player who receives fewer first-place votes can still win if they have more second and third-place finishes on their ballot. It’s a Heisman system that produced a close result in 2023, Myles Garrett edging Watt out 165 to 140 points. Garrett received 23 first-place votes compared to Watt’s 19. It was the second time Watt finished as runner-up, also placing second in 2020. He ranked third in 2019.
In recent history, the closest DPOY came in 2016 when Oakland Raiders DE Khalil Mack beat out Denver Broncos EDGE Von Miller 18-17 in first-place votes under the old model.
If Watt wins his second, he’ll join a small club of multi-time winners: DT Joe Greene, LB Lawrence Taylor, LB Mike Singletary, DE Bruce Smith, DE Reggie White, LB Ray Lewis, DE J.J. Watt, and DT Aaron Donald. Right now, his odds of taking home the trophy have fallen just like the Steelers team he plays for.
